$SPCX had a HUGE BEAT & RAISE
Q3 earnings
• Revenue: $14.58B, +161% YoY, vs $12.72B expected
• GAAP diluted EPS: $0.35 vs $0.10 expected
• Net income: $4.40B, vs $1.05B loss
• Operating income: $2.79B
• Adjusted EBITDA: $8.81B, +306% YoY
• Capex: $19.59B, including $16.44B for AI
Business Breakdown
• AI: $7.56B revenue, +830% YoY, with $431M operating profit
• Connectivity: $5.25B revenue, +69% YoY, with $2.37B operating profit
• Space: $1.77B revenue, +6% YoY, with a $7M operating loss
AI became the largest revenue segment while Starlink remained the main operating profit engine
Guidance
• Q1 2027 revenue: $33–37B, vs $22B expected
• Reaffirmed $100B annualized revenue target exiting 2026
• Compute capacity targeted at 2.5-3 GW by year-end
• Q4 capex: $35–40B
• Backlog: $63B, with $42B expected to convert into revenue within 12 months
Management says that new compute deployments currently generate payback in under a year
Important updates
• Starlink reached 13.6M subscribers (+1.6M during Q3) with monthly ARPU increased to $69 from $66 in Q2
• Starship Flight 14 deployed 26 V3 satellites, adding 10x the downlink capacity of a Falcon 9 Starlink launch
• Next Starship flight is targeted for November, with an attempt to catch both the booster and ship
As for the BIG strategic commentary
• Management targets weekly flights during 1H 2027
• Starlink Mobile surpassed 22M monthly users, +37% QoQ. Mobile V2 satellite deployment is planned for 2027
• SpaceX is targeting approximately 13 GW of compute capacity by the end of 2027
• Terafab targets a functional test chip in May-June 2027 and volume production during 2H 2028
This was a big surprise with Elon Musk breaking all expectations and giving more aggressive guidance and commentary to look forward to