Good News Monday with Randy Kirk. In this clip I come back to something I said months ago about Waymo. Its fleet in each city will stay relatively small because it has no way to handle peak demand. Uber can raise rates and bring more drivers out at peak times, and Tesla can do something similar in theory by drawing on customers' cars, bringing hundreds of them into a service center, cleaning them and sending them out for a big event or the evening commute. Waymo won't have that luxury. We also covered why I'd hold and not fold through the daily swings, SpaceX's undervaluation, and Terafab. Full episode: piped.video/watch?v=Ay3pMGD3…

Always fun with Herbert. This time we spent the whole episode on Grok Bot, which I think of as an agent you hire like an employee. It runs on its own computers in the cloud, you can build a team of specialist bots, and it does work that would cost me thousands a month in staff. In this clip I talk about logging my main Grok Bot into my Cybertruck. The two bots can talk to each other, but I still can't speak directly to my own bot from the car. That's okay, but it's no cigar. Full video: piped.video/watch?v=0lT7rVq3…

Always a pleasure talking with Herbert. SpaceX wants 10,000 Starship launches a year, and I think that's doable once Starbase Louisiana is running, though it takes a new factory, 8 to 12 pads and enormous volumes of oxygen, nitrogen, helium and methane. The bigger drag is the FAA, which still runs on 20th-century bureaucracy and technology. SpaceX will propose, and the FAA will dispose. We also got into Raptor 3, which I expect to reach 250-260 tons of thrust, Starlink's global market dwarfing any US carrier, and why the new space race is about building real value off Earth. Full video: piped.video/watch?v=pzki89iQ…

Good question, Phil. Here's the median case, with the average number of cars on the road each quarter. Q4 '26: about 1,100 Tesla-owned Q1 '27: about 2,200 Q2 '27: about 4,400, plus the first 700 or so customer-owned cars Q3 '27: about 8,800, plus about 7,500 customer cars Q4 '27: about 17,500, plus about 32,000 customer cars Tesla's own fleet roughly doubles each quarter, and customer cars join from Q2 '27, with Tesla keeping a share of their fares. Paid miles per car rise from about 90 to 140 a day, while fares ease from about $2.00 to $1.65 a mile.

Here's my estimate for Tesla's driverless Robotaxi business through 2027, built from a 20,000-run Monte Carlo that comes very close to my own thinking. In the base case Robotaxi brings Tesla about $900M of revenue in 2027, with a low case near $350M and a high case around $2.5B. I put the odds of topping $500M at nearly four in five, and topping $1B at a little under half. The real story is the ramp through the year. Quarterly revenue in the base case climbs from about $18M this quarter to roughly $540M in Q4 2027, an exit run rate near $3B a year, and the high case exits closer to $11B. On profit contribution after fixed network costs (before FSD R&D and corporate overhead), the base case runs at a small loss through Q1, breaks even in Q2, turns profitable in Q3 and reaches about $300M in Q4 2027. The two things that move the outcome most are how fast Tesla grows its own fleet and how quickly regulators open new cities, with customer-owned cars joining from around Q2 2027 driving the upside. The fleet, mileage, fare and cost inputs are my assumptions, since Tesla doesn't disclose them, and I'll track this against actuals every quarter through 2027.

Great to be back with Randy Kirk for Good News Friday, on a rough day for the market. We're in a very short fear and greed cycle around the AI trade, climbing a wall of worry, and my advice is to ignore the noise. In this clip I explain why a Tesla and SpaceX merger is ideal even for retail Tesla holders who worry about dilution. SpaceX has a big bump coming in the short term, and over the longer term they would earn the back end from Tesla plus the back end from SpaceX and its data centers in the sky. It's my old argument of more shots at goal, but more shots at goal sooner: Starlink and Robotaxi together, then data centers in the sky, then Optimus. We also covered why the Cybercab is financially brilliant, Robotaxi on the steep part of the S-curve, and my call for 6-7% GDP growth by the end of 2028. Full episode: piped.video/watch?v=M1QRT_Zj…

...and God bless Gwynne & Robert Shotwell.

Another one from my time with Randy. Robert Reich is now calling for Tesla to be nationalized, and the other side of the aisle has come out with sabers blazing. I've never had much respect for his opinions, because almost nothing he predicts ever comes true, and you can literally go back and track it. Nationalizing one of America's most innovative companies would be a terrible idea, and I don't expect this call to age any better than the rest. Short: piped.video/shorts/V0E0lW84_…

Randy pulled another clip from our talk, this one on whether Wall Street is underestimating Tesla's Robotaxi potential. A few more good Robotaxi reports will go a long way, and they fit right into my trip-up theory. Tesla is up about 33% from $297, which has turned out to be one of my more accurate predictions, and the closer we get to $500 the better. Elon has engineered this transition with real courage and focus. Short: piped.video/shorts/nl9p5Jy7m… Full episode: piped.video/watch?v=_QpvzNDE…

One more from Randy. Anthropic's S-1 talks about spending $542 billion on data centers in the coming years, and if they raise several hundred billion dollars, I'd expect a lot of it to land there. I'm still working my way through the filing, so we'll see. Short: piped.video/shorts/P708XQox_… Full episode: piped.video/watch?v=_QpvzNDE…

Randy pulled another clip from our Monday talk, this one on how the compute buildout really gets done. Tesla needs enormous amounts of it, and so do all the smaller players, and at that scale a huge single integrated site pays off far better than a field of mega pods. Mega pods are handy for quick, distributed installs, but they only cover a small slice of what it takes to get a big operation up and running. Short: piped.video/shorts/7p8QnHvqT… Full episode: piped.video/watch?v=_QpvzNDE…

Randy pulled a short clip from our talk Monday on the $400 billion data center estimate. There are many ways to slice that number, by timing, by revenue replacement, and by how fast it actually goes into the ground, and I'm not sure some of the assumptions out there can be hit without robots doing a lot of the building. Short: piped.video/shorts/oO3p-7ks9… Full episode: piped.video/watch?v=_QpvzNDE…

People keep asking whether I favor Tesla or SpaceX in the merger. I hold as much of one as the other, so for me it truly doesn't matter, and over the long run I think both shareholders do very well. Great talk with Randy yesterday. piped.video/watch?v=_QpvzNDE…

Life has become so much better since Grok Bot became part of it!

Great to be back with Randy Kirk yesterday as Tesla jumped more than 6%. We covered the strong quarter, why robotaxi is starting to hit its S-curve, and why I'm happy holding Tesla and SpaceX in equal measure. My view is five years out, and from there the short-term noise washes away. We also got into Jevons paradox and why demand for Super Intelligence has barely begun. piped.video/watch?v=_QpvzNDE…

Great to be with Herbert yesterday to talk through what a fair Tesla-SpaceX merger price looks like. I ran my own numbers and landed in the same ballpark as Brad Gerstner. We covered why Elon can't sit on the special committees, how hard it is to find truly independent directors, and why Tesla holders should look closely at the SpaceX shares they'd receive, because that's their future. For me, the sooner these companies combine, the better. piped.video/I4s0m6kID8k

Pres. Trump is having a rally on THURSDAY 10/29 in Rock HILL, NC at 12:30 PM. Get your FREE TICKETS events.djt-47.co/eVFkvlO

Definitely a new spirit inhabiting the world of Blue these days. Good to see.

We should call this the Fourth Reich.

I spend a lot of hours on the road in my Cybertruck, and my Grok Bot already runs most of my life: travel, email, research, investment management, the works. I can use it from my phone in the car, but that's where the confusion starts. I end up with two Groks running at once, the one built into the car and my own Grok Bot on the phone, and they don't know about each other. What I want is one Grok Bot that handles both the car and my business, with the same memory and tools wherever I am. I'd love for the car to already know the trip I planned with my Grok Bot, the stops, the chargers and the hotels, so it picks up right where we left off. @grok, any chance this is on the roadmap?