Elon Musk responded with “Interesting” to an analysis of a potential Tesla–SpaceX merger.
Brett Winton of ARK Invest suggested that a roughly 30% acquisition premium for Tesla shares could equalize the expected benefits for both shareholder groups by 2031.
However, looking ahead to 2036, his analysis suggests that Tesla would need to be acquired at approximately a 50% discount to balance the expected benefits.
According to ARK's model, the estimated value of a merger compared to remaining separate would be:
By 2031
- Tesla shareholders: ~1.6x
- SpaceX shareholders: ~2x
By 2036
- Tesla shareholders: ~5x
- SpaceX shareholders: ~1.3x
The analysis suggests that Tesla shareholders could benefit significantly more from the merger over the long term.
However, these figures are projections based on ARK's proprietary model, and no final merger terms have been established.