Interesting to see non Texans more bullish on Talarico’s chances than Texans. Two ways to view this trend. Texans will believe it when they see it. Think Lucy with the football mindset. Or folks in the state see something non-Texans aren’t seeing. I lean the former. Those closest to a surprise campaign surge are usually the most skeptical
James Talarico has a 63% chance to beat Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, according to Kalshi traders.
But what percentage of Texas Senate traders are buying Yes on Talarico?
• All Americans: 46%
• Texans: 42%
• Non-Texas: 48%