I sell data center capacity for a living. The conversation with customers has changed completely in the last eighteen months.
It used to start with price per kW. Now the first question out of everyone’s mouth is when can you actually give me power, and the honest answer in most major metros is later than you want to hear.
Everyone wants to argue about GPU supply. That is not where the wall is. The wall is a transformer you order today that arrives in three years, a permitting process that answers to a county board, and an interconnection queue with roughly 2,000 gigawatts stacked up in it. PJM ran the numbers on projects that came online last year and the average was over seven years from request to live power. Three years to get an agreement, four more years to actually energize after the agreement was signed.
And this is the easy part. We are nowhere near the peak of this demand curve. There is at least another order of magnitude coming, and the grid that is supposed to absorb it operates on utility capital planning cycles that were designed in a world where load growth was flat for twenty years.
Which is why the orbital compute argument stopped sounding exotic to me sometime around last fall. Up there you get uninterrupted sunlight, you dump heat straight into vacuum instead of running chillers, and there is no zoning hearing, no queue position, no substation to wait on.
Plenty of companies have interesting orbital compute concepts. Only one of them owns the rocket, has the scale, and deeply embedded partnership with Nvidia.
SpaceX filed with the FCC in January to launch and operate up to a million compute satellites, and there is exactly one launch provider on Earth with the cadence and the cost structure to make that number anything other than a press release. Starship is the reason this is an infrastructure plan and not a science project.
The constraint on the ground is the grid. The constraint in orbit is mass to LEO. SpaceX is the only company that has solved the second one.
$SPCX
Nvidia today announced that @spacexai will deploy Vera CPUs to accelerate its next generation of agentic AI applications.
"SpaceXAI plans to expand its AI infrastructure behind Grok on Nvidia Vera Rubin, while extending an optimized Vera Rubin NVL72 into space with its first-generation Starmind satellite.
SpaceXAI’s work with Nvidia is moving beyond AI factories on Earth. SpaceXAI is developing AI computing infrastructure for orbit, where power, thermal management, bandwidth, reliability and physical integration impose dramatically different constraints from conventional data centers.
SpaceXAI’s planned first-generation Starmind AI satellite will be based on the optimized Nvidia Vera Rubin NVL72 rack-scale system, extending the same accelerated computing architecture powering next-generation AI factories on Earth into space.
Nvidia and SpaceXAI are working to adapt that foundation to the requirements of orbital computing while preserving a common Nvidia architecture and software ecosystem.
This delivers one computing foundation across a wide range of environments: Vera CPUs accelerating increasingly sophisticated AI agents, Vera Rubin powering the AI infrastructure behind Grok and gigawatt-scale AI factories on Earth, and Nvidia accelerated computing extending into orbital AI infrastructure."
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The report that SpaceX is pursuing access to at least 80,000 U.S. cell sites (if true?) certainly makes it obvious that they intend to build a genuine nationwide wireless business, directly competing with AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile.
If so… the size of the opportunity is significant and it makes sense why Musk and Team are pursuing it.
The U.S. wireless services market alone generates ~$240 billion in annual revenue.
1% market share = $2.4B annually
3% market share = $7.2B annually
5% market share = $12B annually
10% market share = $24B annually
And that’s just the U.S. market!! 👀
What’s particularly interesting is that the addressable market already exists. Consumers and businesses collectively spend hundreds of billions annually on wireless connectivity.
SpaceX has an opportunity to capture a portion of that spending by combining terrestrial cellular infrastructure with its growing satellite network, while offering coverage advantages traditional carriers CANNOT replicate. HELLO!
Even modest market penetration could establish another substantial recurring-revenue stream for SpaceX.
Plausible to think it becomes a $10B+ annual business in the mid-term... I don’t see why they don’t get 10% or so of the market given the differentiator. Ppl also don’t love the big 3, sooo…
But as an investor, I think the potential size of this business is being underestimated, especially when viewed alongside everything else SpaceX is building.
Curious where SpaceX’s internal estimates are for market share capture over the next 10 years. My guess is it’s >10% and I’m being too conservative. @elonmusk
Starlink Mobile will become the first network operator to deploy both satellite and terrestrial spectrum, and be a huge disruptor.
We’re finally going to have a fourth major carrier in the U.S.
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There’s a lot of misunderstanding around the $SPCX unlocks.
People see the stock declining on an unlock date and immediately assume newly unlocked shareholders are dumping shares.
I’m a pre-IPO shareholder. Let me explain how this actually works.
Shares first have to arrive at Fidelity Stock Transfer agent. From there, shareholders have to transfer them into a tradable brokerage account, which can take another 2-3 days.
For perspective, my shares from today’s unlock haven’t even arrived at the transfer agent yet. I don’t expect to be able to trade them until Tuesday or Wednesday next week.
Now look at the previous unlocks:
Aug 6: +6.1% on unlock day, +16.0% over the next 3 trading days.
Aug 20: -4.0% on unlock day, +2.9% over the next 3 trading days.
Sep 9: -3.9% on unlock day, +0.4% over the next 3 trading days.
Sep 24: -0.2% on unlock day, +0.8% over the next 3 trading days.
Oct 9: +1.2% on unlock day, -6.4% over the next 3 trading days.
Four of the five were higher three trading days later.
None of this proves when unlocked shares actually hit the market, but it illustrates why the unlock date alone tells you very little about actual selling.
The market can price in anticipated selling well before shareholders can physically execute a trade.
Today’s volume doesn’t establish that newly unlocked shareholders are dumping.
And for this particular tranche, the actual ability to sell for most (if not all) holders may not even begin until next week.
I was wrong on $SPCX unlock. This is clearly u lock selling , already over half the usual daily volume.
That means it’s time to LOAD UP.
Selling could co time for a few days - but this is a huge discount to market.
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One final point.
Of the pre-IPO shareholders I regularly speak with, none are selling, and none have plans to sell.
Obviously, that’s anecdotal, but I think it’s worth sharing.
We invested in SpaceX years ago because we believed in what this company could eventually become. Since then, the opportunity has expanded dramatically beyond what many of us originally envisioned.
Starlink, Starship, AI infrastructure, orbital compute, and the broader ecosystem Elon is building have only strengthened that conviction.
Many of us held through years of illiquidity because we believed in the long-term potential. Having liquidity today doesn’t suddenly change that investment thesis.
I invested for the long term. My conviction has only grown. I’m not selling.
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Timbo retweeted
SpaceX has just officially received FCC approval to acquire three additional spectrum licenses from Tristar to expand its upcoming next-gen @Starlink Mobile network.
The licenses cover 15 MHz of spectrum in the 1695–1710 MHz band.
The FCC also granted waivers allowing SpaceX to use the spectrum for satellite communications instead of building traditional cell towers.
This approval comes just two weeks after SpaceX announced an agreement to acquire nationwide 800 MHz low-band spectrum to improve indoor coverage and outlined plans to combine its satellite constellation with terrestrial infrastructure.
Starlink Mobile will become the first network operator to deploy both satellite and terrestrial spectrum: "One network that provides Americans with a reliable service indoors, outdoors, in cellular dead zones, and everywhere in between."
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Admittedly, when I invested in xAI in March of 2025 I was certainly bullish but wasn’t nearly as bullish as I was on SpaceX. I knew xAI would be a major player but I genuinely did not anticipate what we’ve seen over the last 18 months. Remarkable.
But yes 👇 remember when everyone said SpaceX was bailing out xAI 😂 … whoops
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People are dramatically underestimating what SpaceX is becoming.
Possibly the most relevant and important takeaway: ‘Newly deployed AI compute capacity is paying for itself in less than 12 months.’
Now consider SpaceX plans to scale from 1.7 GW of compute capacity to 13+ GW by the end of 2027.
If it can deploy that much additional capacity, the potential for revenue growth and future cash generation is enormous.
The earnings potential is staggering.
Meanwhile, Starlink continues growing rapidly, generating billions in operating profits, with mobile connectivity still in its infancy and Grok Bot approaching 1M users.
My conviction has never been higher.
Exciting times!!
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The value of Terafab’s output will place it in the top 20 of country GDP in a single building
According to Korean media, Elon Musk's Terafab is now talking to almost EVERY Korean chip supplier it can find.
Until now, the only known Korean suppliers were HPSP and Hanmi Semiconductor.
Now TheElec reports that Tesla and SpaceX are in talks across nearly every category Korean companies can supply, from basic piping parts to process materials to test components.
At SEMICON West in San Francisco last week, Terafab staff walked straight to around 10 Korean booths on the morning of day one, including ENF Technology, Dongjin Semichem, Hanmi Semiconductor, Unisem and MiCo.
Several companies have already signed NDAs. One got an NDA by email the same evening Terafab visited its booth.
Hanmi Semiconductor is discussing TC bonders for Terafab, and HPSP has agreed to supply one high pressure hydrogen annealing tool to the R&D line.
MiCo's cleaning unit Komico signed a three way NDA with Tesla and SpaceX about a month ago, and ISC is already swapping samples for rubber test sockets.
Tesla and SpaceX do not buy from Chinese suppliers. One Korean supplier put it simply, without China there are only a few options, and Japan is expensive.
They also want prices that are CHEAPER than China.
$LRCX and $AMAT have reportedly built dedicated Terafab teams, and Fujifilm is meeting Terafab buyers regularly on slurries, photoresist and etchants.
The goal is a fab with 1 million wafer starts per month within 10 years, with $16.8 billion of initial investment and more than 3,000 jobs.
SpaceX broke ground in Grimes County, Texas this month, and the first 100,000 wafer per month phase is expected before 2030.
Logic is being done with $INTC, talks with $TSM are ongoing, and memory will be built separately.
One supplier said that if they email Terafab in the middle of the night in the United States, they get an answer in 30 minutes to an hour.
$TSLA and $SPCX are building a chip supply chain at Elon speed.
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“Lack of electricity” is an oversimplification. Everything is hard about bringing massive compute online at extremely high speed.
If there was twice as much time, this would be relatively easy, but there is not.
Former $GOOGL employee on why data center capacity and electricity are the real bottlenecks, not GPU production itself, and how unreliable some of the neoclouds are ($AMZN, $GOOGL, $MSFT, $NVDA):
1. According to the expert, open-source models are closing the gap with frontier models faster than expected, with customers increasingly replacing Anthropic and OpenAI models in multi-agent architectures with open-source alternatives starting from Q2 of this year. The shift started with simple tasks like tool calling and MCP, but has moved up the stack to low-level orchestration.
2. The expert identifies capacity as the biggest constraint at the moment, with certain companies' traffic growing 5x while GPU availability, particularly in the U.S. where latency requirements are tightest, simply cannot keep up. Sourcing capacity overseas in Asia or Australia is technically possible but adds latency that most customers will not accept.
3. Hyperscalers offer reliability but are expensive, require multi-year commitments of three or more years, and have limited availability of the latest hardware, with customers already chasing B300s. AI-native companies tend to gravitate toward neoclouds due to hyperscaler pricing and contract rigidity, but neoclouds come with their own reliability issues, with GPUs dropping off unexpectedly and requiring engineering resources to manage fleet stability around the clock.
4. The third tier consists of smaller independent operators who have invested in GPU racks, seeing the opportunity to lease out capacity and recoup costs within a year or two, with the remainder being pure profit. The expert describes these as essentially unusable in practice, with operators who do nothing more than find land, install racks, connect electricity, and set up cooling, with no real cloud management, maintenance, or operational expertise behind them.
5. The expert expects overall GPU availability to increase meaningfully over the next year or two, with $NVDA continuing to ramp production. The real bottleneck is not GPUs themselves but data center capacity and electricity in the U.S. On the supply side, the expert also sees players $SPCX beginning to lease out spare capacity to the market, with more likely to follow.
6. The expert notes that U.S.-based neoclouds typically require 20-30% prepayment upfront, with the remainder paid monthly or quarterly over the contract term, and rebates negotiated at the end for any reliability incidents like traffic loss. APAC-based providers operate differently, with no prepayment required at all.
found on @AlphaSenseInc
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Ok. I now think it’d be hilarious to watch all the “all-in” Tesla investors who have been screaming $TSLA is the better investment over $SPCX and that they’ll “never” approve a merger under $600/share, come crying as SpaceX goes through price discovery.
The exuberance has been interesting.. Strap in. It’s going to be fun to watch if this merger gets extended out or never happens 😂
$SPCX is the buy.
That said I love $TSLA too and believe you should own some of it as well.
If Tesla and SpaceX merge, it will be the greatest gift to all long-term investors that we have ever seen
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🚀 $SPCX just delivered a monster Q3!!!
Revenue up 161% YoY
IMO.. SpaceX has become the most interesting AI infrastructure business in the world, with Starlink generating connectivity revenue while the AI business scales aggressively.
And despite the massive growth, capex came in roughly in line with expectations.
My long-term thesis on $SPCX continues to strengthen
LFG!!
SpaceX has just released its Q3 earnings results.
Highlights:
• Revenue: $14.58B (+161% YoY; vs. $12.7B est)
• Adjusted EBITDA: $8.81B (+306% YoY)
• Net income (GAAP): $4.40B (vs. $1.05B loss YoY)
• Capex: $19.59B (+185% YoY)
• Starlink subs: 13.6M (+89% YoY)
• Cash & marketable securities: $90B
Revenue by segment:
• Space: $1.77B (+6% YoY)
• Connectivity: $5.25B (+69% YoY)
• SI (formerly AI): $7.56B (+830% YoY)
• 1.7 GW of compute installed
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🤣🤣 Wall Street spent 15 years telling investors Bitcoin had no intrinsic value.
Now JPMorgan is projecting a 10% annualized return over the next decade, outperforming every other major asset class.
Super early.
Bitcoin is still a very immature asset.
Lots of price discovery over the next decade. 🐂
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you'll be the best-performing asset of the next decade.
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Interesting, but… imo the AI DC 👉 BTC mining transition is unlikely.
The economics currently favor the opposite. Miners are converting power capacity into AI infrastructure because the revenue potential is substantially greater.
Even in an AI unwind, I’d expect distressed power and DC assets to change hands before seeing a meaningful pivot back to mining.
I’m in the data center business. We have 100s of megawatts in enterprise demand that we cannot fulfill. There are tens of neoclouds and several DC providers that would gladly pickup the distressed assets in that scenario.
That said, I do agree that an AI-driven credit event followed by Fed liquidity could be extremely bullish for BTC. Albeit not sure how likely that is…
Next 12-24 months(?): AI unwind triggers some form of Fed backstop -> BTC shoots to 100k+ -> Incentivize to mine again -> some AI DCs pivot to BTC mining -> production cost rises amidst de-globalization & monetization of energy -> BTC becomes solidified as energy backed SoV
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Timbo retweeted
🎯🎯🎯
The financial value of one SpaceX share is one thing.
The potential impact of introducing 70 million young Americans to ownership, investing, and compounding at an early age could be worth far more.
I love everything about this.
Amazing work by @altcap and Team.
Unprecedented philanthropy from @MichaelDell and @elonmusk.
I am sure we will much more of this, or so I hope!!
🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
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The financial value of one SpaceX share is one thing.
The potential impact of introducing 70 million young Americans to ownership, investing, and compounding at an early age could be worth far more.
I love everything about this.
Amazing work by @altcap and Team.
Unprecedented philanthropy from @MichaelDell and @elonmusk.
I am sure we will much more of this, or so I hope!!
🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Incredible Elon! This will be the largest philanthropic gift in history! 70 M accounts - every citizen under 18 & every child born forevermore now has a free, lifetime investment acct making them an owner in the upside of America & our greatest companies! 🇺🇸🚀🤍@TrumpAccounts @InvestAmerica24
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Timbo retweeted
Between this and Anthropic’s new public benefit fund, isn’t that the exact kind of broad ai ownership you’ve been advocating @SenSanders ?
Next year, I will give one of my SpaceX shares to every kid in America.
This will be the first of many.
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