I think Max is going to be very close to being correct.
Any political promise to “reduce migration” becomes less powerful with the public as it will be at or close to negative. Pretty much all anti migration messaging in my lifetime has been around net numbers and it’s possible that going into what feels like the biggest anti immigration election the net figure won’t be relevant anymore.
Net is easy to understand, other stuff is less so. There is already so much of an information gap between what the public at large thinks is driving migration and what is - eg small boats v visas.
Silly people get angry, smart people update their models!
Remarkable to think back to the 2024 election, when the latest net migration estimate was 685,000.
Labour promised to reduce it (no set target), the Tories promised to halve it (then reduce it further, unspecified), and Reform, of course, put themselves out there with net zero.