Advisor & Investor, Ex CFO @0xPolygon ($Matic), Penske Media.
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2025 Predictions (just for fun, NFA)
SPX - Peaks around 6,800, but closes the year 6,300 for a ~7% return.
VOL - Elevated vol through out the year. Get ready for very whippy action and expanded ADR's/ranges. Tweets from Trump are vol events.
BTC - Peaks around $140k in the fall
ETH - maybe 6k. Too many leaches in the ecosystem
SOL - maybe 500
Alts - Most of us will get rinsed trading alts. The "alt szn" will be different from previous cycles. A lot more concentration into leading themes rather than "rising tide..."
China Trade - Think there is asymmetrical risk to the upside. While Trump has been loud about Tariffs, a deal with Xi sends these stocks higher (BABA, PDD, FUTU, XPEV, TIGR, etc)
Expecting a very difficult year of trading. Have to be nimble and quick to cut in an effort to get into the right themes/leaders. Dispersion will continue to happen and liquid leaders are where you need to be.
There will be some great ranges to trade. I think it's possible SPX hits both 5,000 and 6,800. While I believe SPX will finish the year +7%, there will a handful of 15%+ swings.
The same holds true for BTC. There will be multiple 20-25% swings and 50%+ swings for alts. Start buying the liquidation wicks in crypto and ladder through the breakouts. BTC can go higher than 140k, but that would require actionable clarity on the strategic reserve. If the BSR is simply just holding onto the BTC the U.S. gov already owns from Silk Road, that is a major sell the news event IMO.
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“Are you giving out king sized bars?”
Me: “it’s a bear market. I’m making kids split a fun size”
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Binance withdrawals set to resume Nov 1st.
Sounds like a great time to announce a small S3 @HyperliquidX @chameleon_jeff ?
Hyperliquid.
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Wonder if GOOGL AMZN have acted as short (or risk off) proxies of Anthropic’s IPO. Combined they own 25-30%.
With the S1 out of the way, earnings for both can ignite the next leg up IMO
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Ok which one of you @HyperliquidX .hl’s is
cooking up a theory @Muse is integrating via builder codes and launching perps?
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Lol at all the normies thinking black Monday is happening early on Hyperliquid.
Equity perps are very illiquid (typically) on weekends. More so than crypto.
Some crypto liquidations will amplify equity perps due to cross margin.
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A decade of crypto PTSD made me think there was potential for real fuckery in crypto yesterday on the 10/10 black swan anniversary.
Would be poetic if we start a trend to break range into the 90’s.
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Seeing so many “delta neutral” strategies on how to best farm Paper.
There are going to be so many people that think they are delta neutral but will get liquidated on both ends 🤣
papertrade pre-deposits are live!
papertrade.xyz
in order to avoid the launch trading congestion, deposit during the next two days to secure your spot at the starting line. once trading begins, account creation/deposits will be heavily deprioritized.
no need to rush - there is no advantage to depositing earlier during this period.
when on 10.10 will papertrade go live?
live trading will begin approximately one hour after the expected hyperevm network upgrade on 10.10. the exact upgrade time is not known beforehand. the official hyperliquid discord will post an update when the upgrade is about to begin, so keep an eye there for an early heads up. there is a small historical possibility that the upgrade will happen on the AM of the 11th.
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The flow into SNDK for OCT/NOV/DEC OTM calls was bonkers today.
5 separate orders for 45M in premium. Most I’ve seen in a single stock in a very long time.
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After 2 days of breadth deteriorating after the post below, we had improvement yesterday. Assuming today closes strong, big assumption, breadth will significantly expand.
If that was the local bottom in breadth, lock out rally coming IMO.
Re: market breadth
Playing devils advocate since a lot of traders think equities are a headline away from exploding to the upside.
T2108 (market breadth measure) printed 17.58 today. Single digit readings are super rare. In the past 10 years, only 47 trading days printed single digit readings. Those days were clustered around 6 major events. But markets waterfalled when it did.
66% of the time T2108 printed as low as today’s reading, it never went to single digits and markets rebounded quickly.
The remaining 33% it went to single digits within 1-2 weeks.
I think these next 7-14 days are high risk. MAGS have been carrying the markets but they are showing signs of weakness. Corporate buybacks are going into a blackout period now with earnings upcoming. EOQ rebalancing. Yields/dollar strong.
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