I've always been an AGI/foom skeptic, but I admit modern LLMs feel a lot smarter than I expected they would. It's hard to find things they cannot do.
Yet all real-world value metrics (GPD, life expectancy, production, ..) are stable and indicate this is just technological progress as usual.
I find it hard to reconcile those two things. My best guess is that we just don't understand intelligence and value-creation. And that our primitive intuitions about them are easily fooled, but time will tell.