The issue opens on Wednesday, 21st October What are your views on the IPO?

It produced oil till 1982 — a 45 year run. Over 32 million barrels of oil. Based on his knowledge, some of the earlier failed wells were also deepened. They also yielded oil and became commercially viable. Investing, too, works somewhat like this. Nobody has all the knowledge. There’s an idea — a thesis. The thesis is based on as many real-world facts and knowledge as possible. Then, the thesis is tested in the real world. Multiple bets are placed that align with the thesis. Some of the bets pay off, some don’t. We see this in business and investing almost every day. Single bets are a rarity. Multiple bets are the norm. Take the case of Warren Buffett and Japanese trading houses. Some time in 2020, Warren Buffett developed the thesis that Japanese trading houses were some of the most diversified companies in the world with operations spanning 60-90 countries. They were well run and professionally managed. And they appeared to be available at cheap valuations. Instead of choosing the best of the lot, he simply invested in all 5 of the biggest trading houses acquiring more than 5% (each) of their stake. Over time, he has increased his stake. He has invested similarly in the past — with airline stocks and newspaper stocks among others. Institutional investor Blackstone did something similar. After the 2008 recession, home prices had hit rock bottom. But people didn’t have the money to buy homes despite them being cheap. Their thesis was this: house prices were cheap. But people would be renting for a long time. So, good time to be a homeowner. Blackstone started buying homes in 2012. It didn’t bother inspecting individual homes. By the time they were done, they had bought a total of around 48,000 homes. The company that they used to buy these homes, Invitation Homes, listed on the stock markets in 2017, giving them a fat profit. Another good example of this comes from the world of startup investing. SoftBank’s thesis was that ride-hailing was going to be the way many commuters moved around town. Instead of trying to find the best ride-hailing company to put their money in, they just tried to buy a stake in many startups in the space, across different countries. SoftBank was an investor in Uber, Ola, Didi (China), Grab (SE Asia), 99 (Brazil), etc. Distribution of Returns The thing about having a thesis is that it is necessary to understand the nature of the winners and losers. It is necessary to understand where the returns are going to come from — and what can hurt them. Some kinds of portfolios have few winners and mostly losers. But the winners are so big that the losers don’t matter. Some kinds of portfolios have an even number of winners and losers. The profits aren’t super big, but neither are the losses. Some portfolios have most of the gains coming from most of their investments. There are only a small number of losses. The profits are low but consistent and the losses are tiny. If you look at share market investing funds, many of them have portfolios that are far less asymmetric. More winners, fewer losers. Bond investors tend to have more wins and fewer losses in their portfolios. Investors use many checks and filters to keep their investments in line. This method is one such check. The central idea is that you could be right about an idea, but end up with the wrong investment. So, place more bets while sticking to the idea.