🔥 DELAWARE vs WESTERN KENTUCKY
🏈 Under 56.5
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🗣️"WKU opened this game up as a +2.5 underdog at home, a line that’s moved to now favoring the Toppers slightly. A total that opened at 57.5 was bet up quickly in the early week to 59.5 and, later in the week, back down to 56.5 points.
Action PRO logs six sharp moves to the under, but that number has moved through two important totals of 59 and 58.
The market is still catching up on these teams. Last week, WKU closed as a -1.5 favorite at Sam Houston and, the week before that, a +2.5 home ‘dog to Missouri State.
Now, WKU is laying 1.5 points at home against Delaware, a much higher-quality opponent whose market rating jumped at least a field goal with the return of Minicucci.
We have an opportunity to bet against a Delaware offense that just throttled a terrible defense and scored 61 points on 482 yards of offense.
This year, trying to back road teams on these Weeknight CUSA games has been a disaster; since Week 5, road teams are 3-10-1 ATS on CUSA games played between Tuesday and Thursday (although they went 2-2 last week).
Instead, I’m going to continue fading Reeder as an OC and WKU’s inability to score points even against forgiving defenses like Sam Houston.
Conversely, we’re able to sell high on a historic Delaware showcase that required four fields of 45 or fewer yards in the second half and three takeaways.
WKU’s secondary should hold up better against Minicucci and the Blue Hens.
It’s not the best this number has been, but it’s good above 55." -
@roadtocfb