Researcher on political economy of 🇷🇺 Former advisor at @bank_of_russia My weekly newsletter eepurl.com/c82pxr
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My forthcoming book From Sovereigns to Servants: How the War against Ukraine Reshaped Russia’s Elite is now officially with @HurstPublishers.
It’s about loyalty and survival at the top of Putin’s system. How and why Russian elites adapted to the war
🔗 hurstpublishers.com/book/fro…
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An absolute must-read by brilliant @maxseddon on how an American lawyer, a banker, and a former spy hatched a plan to prevent nuclear Armageddon planned by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
ft.com/content/dcb57f30-bbfe…
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Some quick takes on Russia's morning government reshuffle: no change, of course. This is rearranging the furniture, not renovating the house. The deputy prime ministers responsible for the war and asset redistribution, Manturov and Patrushev, kept their posts. Looking for a policy shift or clues about the war or property redistribution in this reshuffle is pointless.
The real story is Grigorenko’s departure. The head of the government apparatus is the key administrative post: every document and instruction passes through it. Grigorenko is an old and important ally of PM Mishustin. Okladnikova is a strong finance professional with long experience working across government bodies, but she carries far less bureaucratic weight. For now, this looks like a weakening of Mishustin, and where Grigorenko lands will tell a lot. One caveat: Grigorenko had tense relations with practically everyone in the cabinet, so his exit may also be a trade Mishustin was willing to make.
Someone who knows Okladnikova describes her as a good communicator with a strong grasp of how the decision-making system works. She is from Krasnoyarsk and has spent her whole career in public service, first in the regional administration, then at the Finance Ministry from 2012.
Trutnev. He has had a long-running conflict with Mishustin. Reportedly, he is moving to a quieter role in the presidential administration.
Transport sector reshuffles as expected. The Rotenbergs keep their grip on the sector. Savelyev went to the Duma, and Nikitin takes his place. Yadrov knows the bureaucratic world well: he started as an air traffic controller at Vnukovo-2 and quite literally landed government planes and oligarchs’ private jets.
Siluanov. Combining the posts of deputy prime minister and finance minister is a long-standing tradition: Kudrin held that exact position until his resignation, and Siluanov did the same in 2018–2020, then as first deputy prime minister. The jokes about him as a future prime minister have already started, but I don’t buy it: this is a return to a familiar arrangement, not preparation for a move. The more interesting question is how responsibilities will be divided, which should be announced within a week. The key thing to watch is whether Siluanov picks up the economy as a whole, currently overseen by Novak. If he does, that’s a real power gain. If not, it’s a title on top of the authority he already has.
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Alexandra Prokopenko retweeted
Pourquoi les élites russes ne se retournent-elles pas contre Poutine ?
Progressivement privées de tout pouvoir politique par le Kremlin, la guerre et les sanctions ont encore resserré leur dépendance au régime.
Une perspective de @amenka.
legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2026/…
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Alexandra Prokopenko retweeted
Un sistema diseñado para el aplauso del líder, sin ética ni instituciones donde debatir decisiones como lanzar una guerra. Este es el diagnóstico de @amenka Alexandra Prokopenko, investigadora del Centro Carnegie y exconsejera del Banco Central de Rusia. elperiodico.com/es/internaci…
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Alexandra Prokopenko retweeted
ICYMI: The yuan overall still punches far below China's economic weight. Far from ditching the dollar, China is still tightly tied up in dollar-based global financial networks.
piie.com/blogs/realtime-econ…
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Taxes are raised, the deficit is fixed on paper. If the war economy needs more, Russia won't mobilize through the budget — it'll do it through the central bank. Whose governor's term, conveniently, expires in 2027. Who pays for the war carnegieendowment.org/russia…
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The remaining deficit will be covered by domestic borrowing at double-digit interest rates. In 2027, the Finance Ministry plans to borrow 7.7 trillion rubles on the domestic market: 2.3 trillion more than previously planned. That will increase the state debt from 19.9 percent of GDP to 21.7 percent of GDP in a single year.
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Alexandra Prokopenko retweeted
For those in Vienna - do join us on 30 November at @IWM_Vienna where @amenka and I will be discussing her book as well my Scramble for Europe.
Finally, @amenka’s book on the Russian elite is out! It uses unparalleled access to explain how Russian technocrats are enabling Putin’s war.
The hand-wringing Moscow restaurant scenes are straight out of The Master and Margarita – you’ll find yourself reaching for the poison
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Alexandra Prokopenko retweeted
This book by @amenka is a must-read: It's an inside view on the fear, cynicism and warped morality that caused the Russian elite to line up behind Putin's war, and the most important book on Russia since the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
🇷🇺📚 Advance stock available: 'From Sovereigns to Servants: How the War Against Ukraine Reshaped Russia’s Elite' by @amenka
‘The most important book on Russia since it began the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. . . An inside view on the fear, cynicism and warped morality of the Russian elite’. @CatherineBelton, author of 'Putin's People'
Part of our 'New Perspectives on Eastern Europe and Eurasia' series, edited by @BenHNoble
Sample the book here 👉 tinyurl.com/29cctnkx
Use code SOVEREIGNS20 to order at 20% discount.
ALT Book cover for 'From Sovereigns to Servants' showing a bright red cover with Putin's large facing looming in the background and a group of people to the side. Shows front, back, and spine.
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'...brings clarity and logic to a subject often shrouded in obscurity. This sobering and illuminating book brings enormous analytical acuity to the rise of Putin’s Russia and to Putin’s iron grip on Russian politics,' writes @mkimmage about my book, which is OFFICIALLY OUT. '... Essential reading,' adds @edwardfishman. Thanks to everyone who makes it happen
🇷🇺📚 Advance stock available: 'From Sovereigns to Servants: How the War Against Ukraine Reshaped Russia’s Elite' by @amenka
‘The most important book on Russia since it began the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. . . An inside view on the fear, cynicism and warped morality of the Russian elite’. @CatherineBelton, author of 'Putin's People'
Part of our 'New Perspectives on Eastern Europe and Eurasia' series, edited by @BenHNoble
Sample the book here 👉 tinyurl.com/29cctnkx
Use code SOVEREIGNS20 to order at 20% discount.
ALT Book cover for 'From Sovereigns to Servants' showing a bright red cover with Putin's large facing looming in the background and a group of people to the side. Shows front, back, and spine.
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Alexandra Prokopenko retweeted
🔴 LIVE: Inside the World of Russian Elites with @amenka nitter.siddz.com/i/broadcasts/1wGWjlOze…
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Перейти к прямому управлению ценами, производством и капиталом - значит отказаться от рыночной оболочки, которая позволяет экономике работать. К этому Кремль пока не готов. Поэтому мобилизация ресурсов, если понадобится, пойдет не через бюджет, а через Центробанк, полномочия председательницы которого удобно истекают в 2027 году. разбор что там в бюджете (English will follows)
carnegieendowment.org/ru/rus…
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Russia's 2027 budget in one line: defense grew more than the entire budget. Everything else shrank to pay for it.
Security takes 44%. Human capital—social policy, healthcare, and education—accounts for 21%. Debt interest beats health + education combined. Why are we not surprised?
reuters.com/world/russia-rai…
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Tomorrow I'll be talking about a new book, the Russian elite, and the economy right here with brilliant @maxseddon. Don't miss!
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, many in the West expected the country's elite to stop the war. Why didn't they? @amenka talks to @maxseddon about her new book on precisely this issue tomorrow at 11 am EDT / 5 pm CEST on our YouTube channel: carnegieendowment.org/events…
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Alexandra Prokopenko retweeted
FT Exclusive: Standard Chartered, Citigroup and other international banks handled billions of dollars from a Kremlin-backed fintech company that tricked its way into the global financial system using a vast document forgery operation. ft.trib.al/gt3Lkdv
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Alexandra Prokopenko retweeted
🎤 Time for our third #HSF2026 Layers of Security speaker reveal:
🔹Nebahat Albayrak-Edgar, @Fortum
🔹Thomas Graham, @CFR_org
🔹@amenka, @CarnegieEndow
🔹@a_sloat, @IEuniversity
🔹 Iuliia Osmolovska, @GLOBSEC
Sign up to follow discussion on Oct 2–4: lyyti.fi/reg/HSF_2026_Livest…
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Alexandra Prokopenko retweeted
A little-known fact: Putin never wanted clear rules. I offered to pay a windfall tax of ≈50% to guarantee legal property rights once and for all. He refused because legal certainty would've taken away his leverage.
New in @nytimes , ahead of Sunday's Duma election in Russia.
The result was never in doubt. The interesting part is what the vote says about the people who run Russia, not the people voting. For two decades the deal was: stay out of politics, keep what you own. The war took that back. Property is now held on Putin's terms. Careers end with no reason given. No exit to the West.
And still no revolt. When everything can be taken at once, adapting quietly is rational
nytimes.com/2026/09/18/opini…
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New in @nytimes , ahead of Sunday's Duma election in Russia.
The result was never in doubt. The interesting part is what the vote says about the people who run Russia, not the people voting. For two decades the deal was: stay out of politics, keep what you own. The war took that back. Property is now held on Putin's terms. Careers end with no reason given. No exit to the West.
And still no revolt. When everything can be taken at once, adapting quietly is rational
nytimes.com/2026/09/18/opini…
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Your podcast of the week and upcoming elections in Russia this weekend.
Domestic Russia: Security Services, the Economy, and Elections
Enjoyed being on the latest @CNASdc Brussels Sprouts podcast with @amenka, talking to @AKendallTaylor and @jteurope about the near-term future for Russia
cnas.org/publications/podcas…
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