A lot FinX is in complete disarray over what's happening to the AI trade. There are legitimate reasons to be concerned, and it's funny watching these financial influencers either confused as to why they are getting wrecked or some that are still detached from reality screaming to buy every dip on profitless companies.
When strong earnings no longer drive quality stocks like
$MU or
$NVDA higher you should have asked yourself why that is.
The market is questioning how sustainable this growth is at current valuations. All it takes is one hyperscaler slowing spending to trigger a domino effect. Or YoY growth coming in below expectations because the comps have become so absurdly high.
Growth can still be incredible and a stock can sell off. Slowing growth is a signal of what's potentially ahead, and nobody wants to be the last one at the party.
OpenAI and Anthropic are both growing incredibly fast, but their future spending commitments are enormous. The question is whether their revenue and financing can keep pace with those obligations. If not, they'll need additional capital, spending adjustments, or both.
Then you have the neoclouds being valued on ARR that may not materialize for years.
$NBIS was arguably smart to favor shorter contracts, while
$CRWV locked in longer-term deals at lower prices. But neither approach eliminates the risk.
Eventually, growth will normalize, competition will increase, and customers will have more leverage in contract negotiations. I don't know if that's 12, 24 or 36 months from now, but the economics won't stay this favorable forever.
I'm not saying these are bad companies or that they can't do well in the future. But so much has already been priced in and the market needs time to see follow through execution.
This entire trade is built on enormous expectations, and too many investors are treating those expectations as guarantees.
There are many unprofitable companies carrying insane valuations. We're talking about companies worth tens of billions of dollars with no clear path to justifying those valuations if growth or margins disappoint.
Meanwhile, debt is piling up, and there's no guarantee every projected commitment turns into realized revenue.
To be clear, I don't think the bubble is popping, but I do think the market needs a reset. Expectations need to come down. We've already seen that process play out over the past few months across many of the popular bottleneck stocks.
Since the Leopold incident, many of these names haven't recovered. Some are down 30%, 40%, 50% or more.
I wouldn't count on a V-shaped recovery across the board. I think many of the "bottleneck" names are dead money. I wouldn't touch 80% of the stocks many big accounts pushed over the last 9 months.
Eventually, money will flow back into the quality infrastructure plays.
I'm not an AI bear. I'm just grounded in reality. There have been plenty of opportunities outside the AI trade over the past two years. I remain 100% invested in this market. I sit on zero cash. But I am diversified outside the AI trade.
And I don't want to hear the hindsight bias argument.
I was bullish on software when nobody wanted it. I've avoided the AI trade entirely in 2026 and still managed to generate multi hundred percent returns across my portfolios over the past couple of years. I've shared my positions and returns in here a few times. I have also been vocal in calling out the bottleneck bros. So this is not hindsight bias. This has long been my stance.
I didn't even touch on the macro environment, the Fed, Iran, inflation, and everything else weighing on markets.
If any of this is a surprise to you, you're following the wrong people.