The GenAI economy has generated $110 billion in sales over the past 12 months. It is growing fast. On an annualized basis, the revenue run rate exceeds $175 billion. These numbers took us several months to construct, and as far as we know, it’s the first bottom-up, deduplicated measure of consumer and enterprise AI spending across the full stack. We are releasing this research today in our first The State of the AI Economy report. intelligence.exponentialview…

A BCG survey showed how companies worldwide are seeing the impact of AI. There are confounders, of course. Maybe advanced AI users just have better management teams, and therefore better commercial performance. It is a self-reported survey, etc., etc.

This chart shows the key risk to the AI trade, and it's missing from the latest revenue announcements. The AI boom is fundamentally driven by a top 1% of companies that drive 80% of spend. Within that top 1%, 80% are venture-backed. That's all fine if the AI trade works out, and if, as some prominent investors say, everyone wins. But if it doesn't work out, then we have a cascading effect of large customers simultaneously pulling back their AI spend.

Both sets of analysts get it wrong. But solar has different dynamics: a technology on a steep learning curve and highly modularised, very fragmented market.

Almost the entirety of the British Highstreet is now made up of 3 types of businesses: 1) Private Equity owned companies (Pizza Express, Burger King, Cafe Rouge, The Body Shop, Wagamamas, Zizzi, New Look, Bella Italia, Boots, WH Smith, etc) 2) Foreign owned businesses acting as fronts for skilled visa migrant scams and/or money laundering enterprises (Hairdressers, Kebab Shops, Vape Shops, etc) 3) Charity Shops. Largely in existence to sell off items left when people die. It's difficult to imagine anything more dystopian than this.

Side by side, 2030 AI infrastructure revenue hurdles from Goldman Sachs, Bernstein & Cummings, Van Nieuwerburgh – and our own at @ExponentialView. We explain why our 2030 revenue expectations diverge from consensus here: investmentbrief.ai/p/2030-re…

الصورة الأكثر تداولا من مظاهرات فرنسا

From this perspective (revenue per employee), hedge funds (and Anthropic) are pocket change—commodity trading is where the big money flows. It’s a good hint, by the way: the big winners at the end of this whole story could very well be compute traders.

What just happened

Outstanding and fragile at the same time. Goldman Sachs "Demand For Compute Can Grow Exponentially, But The Capital To Finance It Cannot"

Este manifestante Frances es mi puto ídolo!!

Kurzweil's "Singularity" is actually two very distinct concepts, which he predicted to happen decades apart from each other. A simple summary is that the First Singularity is when we learn to write faster, and the Second Singularity is when we learn to read faster.

The missing piece is the increasing proportion of revenue that lives outside Ant and OpenAI even as they grow strongly. Still might not be fast enough but it would be extraordinarily cavalier to declare that it definitely wouldn't be.

I joined @ezraklein and Paul Kedrosky to debate the AI bubble. My view is that AI is still a productive boom, but the financing is getting increasingly uncomfortable. What matters is knowing what evidence would make us change our minds one way or the other: nytimes.com/2026/10/16/opini…

This week in compute: 1. H100 closed at $2.81/hr, down $0.09 (-3.1%) on the week, after swinging from a low near $2.27 (Oct 11) to a high near $3.67 (Oct 15). Utilization ended at 86.3%, ranging roughly 78% to 99%. 2. B200 closed at $8.53/hr, up $0.97 (+12.9%), climbing in two step-ups (Oct 13 and Oct 16) from a low near $7.27 to a high near $8.63. Utilization fell to 81.4% after a late-week dip near 61%, so price kept rising even as usage softened. 3. CoreWeave ($CRWV) fell 23.7% on the week ($80.44 to $61.39), including a 15.5% drop on Oct 14, and is now 57% below its 52-week high. Credit is flashing distress, with 2032 notes yielding ~15% and 5Y CDS at a record above 1,000bps, as Q2 interest expense ran 5x operating income.

Looking ahead to Q4, analysts anticipate the Other 493 will outpace the Mag 7 in earnings growth for the first time since Q4'22. via @FactSet

OpenAI, Anthropic and other leading AI labs face a growing challenge: Better models aren't necessarily attracting more usage. A 10-point intelligence advantage now earns just 20% more developer traffic, down from nearly 69% in late 2025. Full story: thein.fo/4hGJ9jY

The problem of our time is not merely information overload. It is that the time required to construct a coherent understanding of reality is becoming longer than the time during which that understanding remains valid.