Happening tomorrow! Hard reminder that you have free will and can do whatever you want. Came up with the idea to do this last week on a Wed and now we have 80+ founders and VCs. Many from @ycombinator. Sponsored by @a16z and Reveille. Lot of cool photos incoming!

The deal is too good and the math doesn’t make sense Top Golf is about to implode in spectacular fashion. A true relic of the 2010’s millennial corpo slop era

It’s starting to become irresponsible to choose a car that *can’t* save you from an accident.

You have $500k. What’s the play? A) Buy a $350k Roadster and put the remaining $150k into $TSLA + $SPCX B) Full send a $500k Mission S

🎉 Hosting a tight knit hardtech meetup in SF next Tuesday 10/21. 🇺🇸 Officially sponsored by @a16z 👥 Hosted by myself, @edgarpavlovsky, @nickco, @barrett_io and @natabr75 We’re looking for 50 hardcore founders and VCs trying to hangout, relax, talk shop, talk nuclear, defense, manufacturing, space colonization, American Dynamism, reindustrialization and everything inbetween. 📍Location: SF and will be revealed in DMs/groupchat 🍺 All food and drinks are covered. Send a comment and DM if interested. 👤 About me: Nuclear Submarine Officer transitioning to launching my own company. 12 years Navy.

TLDR; we will probably never get another ARR number from Anthropic, which is healthy. Should force the market to move away from extreme focus on Anthropic/OpenAI ARR numbers to hyperscale growth rates, which are a much better metric for AI at this point given they capture Muse, Grok, Gemini and Open-Source. Anthropic FCF positive in Q3 and reaccelerating in October on Opus 5.5 per third party data. Roadshow in several weeks will happen after this has been widely confirmed. Unit economics much better than expected given positive FCF with 75% of their compute going to training. All per public reporting.   OpenAI continuing to grow at the same pace per Sarah Friar interview after they took share vs. Anthropic in Q3. Means the sum of Anthropic/OpenAI growth is accelerating from the Q3 pace. OpenAI probably hits FCF positive in the next few months.   Open-source growing much faster than either Anthropic or OpenAI. Modal tripled since May and is 15x YoY per yesterday’s announcement. Open-source tokens generate more revenue and profit for the hyperscalers/neoclouds than frontier tokens. *Every* open source inference cloud I am aware of is growing faster both sequentially and YoY than either Anthropic or OpenAI. And their combined compute spend is becoming material.   Third party data pointing to hyperscalers continuing to accelerate in Q3. All report in the next two weeks. Acceleration should continue in Q4 and Q1 as installed base of compute slowly reprices higher closer to spot and new capacity comes online at higher prices. Continued acceleration in hyperscalers should help address external funding concerns.   10 year yield down in a straight line over the last 24 hours.   Some risk of escalation in Iran next few days, but earnings and mid-terms probably outweigh taking an ultra long-term view and looking out 30 days.   Biggest risk imo remains cyber and OpenAI/Anthropic dominating the model layer. Fragmentation, competition and lower margins at the model layer are good for everyone else in the ecosystem and for America. Slower for longer is much better than an overbuild and an actual bubble.

🎉 Hosting a tight knit hardtech meetup in SF next Tuesday 10/21. 🇺🇸 Officially sponsored by @a16z 👥 Hosted by myself, @edgarpavlovsky, @nickco, @barrett_io and @natabr75 We’re looking for 50 hardcore founders and VCs trying to hangout, relax, talk shop, talk nuclear, defense, manufacturing, space colonization, American Dynamism, reindustrialization and everything inbetween. 📍Location: SF and will be revealed in DMs/groupchat 🍺 All food and drinks are covered. Send a comment and DM if interested. 👤 About me: Nuclear Submarine Officer transitioning to launching my own company. 12 years Navy.

Nothing to see here. NORINCO (China North Industries Group Corporation) is training its Fuxi humanoid robots for riot control.

JPMorgan unleashes $1.5T push for US critical minerals mining.com/jpmorgan-unleashe…

Google DeepMind is building out a robotics lab in Cambridge, MA (near Boston). Aaron Saunders, who served as Boston Dynamics’ CTO until last year, posted on LinkedIn that’s he’s recruiting machinists, engineers, and researchers for the new hardware team. He’s already hired several former Boston Dynamics colleagues.

Uh…. Huh.

Unpopular opinion: We are overbuilding AI compute capacity