I am shorting the AI bubble by shorting the following names: $CRWV $ORCL $NVDA My Coreweave and Oracle short positions are very big; Nvidia short position is a bit smaller (bc better company). But anyway, I think there is a good chance that it's all (or mostly) downhill from here for the AI labs, and the companies financially entangled with them. While bubbles can go on much longer than one can remain solvent, I think that the catalysts I've been waiting for for many months now (since I published my AI bubble Substack piece in June) have arrived: 1) AI lab revenue growth rate slowing substantially as token prices continue to collapse 2) Coreweave's debt reaching 15% (distressed) Revenue slowing is of course the key development, as it totally collapses the growth story, which needed to continue to be off-the-charts to justify all this CapEx. Then, Coreweave getting totally dissed by debt investors (whom we all know deep down are the most rigorous/sophisticated) to me is proof that Real Consequences™️ are starting to arrive, as the first truly major cracks start to form. Unlike most people on fintwit, I am super open about the positions I take w/r/t putting my money where my mouth is. So by all means, bookmark.

In good company.

Peter Thiel presiding at the Bilderberg Meeting (2026)

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Terrorists reading this research

Alexandr is trying way too hard to come off as an "irreverent tech bad boy" type, and it's super cringe. This is now like, his 5th tweet/comment in the past few weeks where he is basically shouting from the rooftops: "look how edgy and subversive I am!" Other instances include the Marty Supreme sperm video, the Muse giant fuzzy butt tweet, and dropping swear words "fuck"/"motherfuckers" left and right. Similar to Zuckerberg's "rebrand"—with Zuck getting the Gen Z haircut, the chain, the Gen Z baggy t-shirt, etc—it is very clearly an exaggerated attempt by someone who is a dork trying way too hard to come off as cool. Wang no doubt understands how much Zuck is always dying to fit in with the new "Tech Right" baddies, and so by following suit, he is also winning favor with Zuck ("this young cool dude Alex Wang is a total badass, haha, he's making Meta look totally rad.") But the forever-folly of the dork-trying-to-look-cool shtick is that they will never be cool no matter how hard they try. It's a bitter pill, but you kinda have to be born with it. And unfortunately for them, anyone who is *actually* cool, or even just normal, can see right through it. Guys like Wang, Palmer Luckey, and others are part of this "let's make tech guys seem badass again" class of profoundly insecure dudes in tech desperately trying to look/sound cool by doing their best impression of the early 2020s podcast bros, but it's just not working. For sure, a bunch of other fellow dorks who see a lot of themselves in guys like Wang/Zuck will fill their replies with praise ("hAhA dUdE yOu ArE sO bAsEddd") when they do these kinds of performative antics... but the real ones know. And that's all that matters. Just put the AI assistant in the bag, lil bro.

I just wanna give a huge shoutout to @arakharazian because the economics research he and his team have been doing at Ramp has been nothing short of a gamechanger. A huge limitation that a lot of people trying to follow the AI trade have faced is that so much of the data around the AI buildout is obfuscated, if not totally hidden. The two big frontier labs are private companies, so we often only get numbers from them when there is a leak. And even with the big public hyperscalers (Google, Microsoft, etc), we rarely get detailed information on how AI *specifically* is impacting their businesses, because everything gets lumped together on their various financial documents (balance sheets, etc). And so, Ara's work that gives us a very legitimate glance into the real business economics of AI, and how it's *actually* playing out in the real world, has been a total godsend. Of course, Ramp's data can't literally paint the *entire* picture (no dataset can), but because it is such an enormous sample size, and so well organized, it has been a huge help w/r/t demystifying how companies are/aren't actually spending on AI, the trend of token prices/volume, and so on. So thank you so much Ara and team. Keep up the great work! Ily dawg.

I think if OAI/Ant IPO, their IPOs will be relatively successful—or, at the very least, not immediately tank—simply due to Pascal's Wager type logic. People will buy shares even if they think they're overpriced, out of a "just in case" kind of reasoning.

Sometimes I go to follow someone because they tweet something that seems kinda smart, but then I see “crypto” in bio and turn away.

Probably true.

As I was saying.