Very honored to receive the 2026 Carl Menger Prize from @VfS_econ. Many thanks to @bundesbank, @oenb, and @SNB_BNS for this recognition! socialpolitik.de/en/carl-men…

1/8 Wohnraumknappheit kostet Kaufkraft, Investitionen und Wachstum. Heute hat der Wissenschaftliche Beirat beim @BMWE_ sein Gutachten zur Landnutzungs- und Baupolitik vorgestellt. Die zentralen Befunde und Reformvorschläge: bundeswirtschaftsministerium…

I posted the materials for my second-year PhD course, broadly on "Identification in Macroeconomics" -- basically a back-and-forth between structural models and data, both time-series and cross-sectional, with a focus on business-cycle questions.

Looking forward to tomorrow's inaugural @EUI_EU-@cepr_org Conference on Frontier Research on Fiscal Policy. Thank you to Giancarlo Corsetti, @AxelleFerriere, @ilzetzki and @LeonardoMelosi for the invitation. I'll present new research on why it matters what the government buys.

Please join us in Berlin in March 2027 and learn all about heterogeneous-agent macro and HANK.

Perfect choice!

Eine seriöse Wissenschaftlerin revidiert dann ihre Meinung, wenn ihr die Daten durchgehend widersprechen. Ich kenne keine seriöse Studie, die das greedflation Narrativ unterstützt. Tut sie aber nicht. Und wer da widerspricht ist misogyn? Das kann man doch nicht ernst nehmen.

Come join our macro group @UniBonn! We're hiring two postdocs for three years, starting September 2027. Empirical and theoretical macroeconomists (broadly defined) welcome. Apply by 15 Nov 2026: econjobmarket.org/positions/… #EconTwitter #EconJobs @christianbaye13

Le spread has reached today 150 basis points. The question on everyone's mind is: can the ECB intervene? And if so, can it activate TPI? My personal view is that it cannot. This question and the situation we have reached was the central question motivating "Crisis Cycle" , my Princeton University Press book, with @masuch_klaus and @JohnHCochrane. The purpose of TPI is to be used "in jurisdictions experiencing a deterioration in financing conditions not warranted by country-specific fundamentals." The French problem is a deterioration in country-specific fundamentals: 5.4% deficit in 2026, debt increasing towards 122%, the undoing of the pension reform. The ECB's text says TPI purchases end when tensions "are due to country fundamentals." So you cannot start when you are in the ending conditions. Also, the 3rd test of TPI says: is the debt trajectory sustainable? Lagarde has said (see Klaus' tweet below) it is "not on path to be brought back under control". I think Lagarde is answering clearly the question on the 3rd test. On paper, France passes two tests ("Compliance with EU fiscal framework? "The Commission said in June yes; And "severe macro imbalances" as given by an open excessive imbalance procedure, again ok on paper). If France needs the ECB, there is a route: an ESM program, like the ones during the Euro crisis, requiring reforms (basically getting the pensions in order will suffice), plus the OMT which allow the ECB to act when a country is subject to a program. If the ECB calls this current situation a liquidity problem, we will have an open route to monetary bailouts. Link to the TPI press release (the only existing public document): ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/…

German newspapers and I normally tend to disagree a bit on whom to interview as economic expert but the FAZ and @WinandWvp are spot on to interview Jesus! 👇

Our new report on the euro area business cycle is out! See Giovanni’s thread for the main findings. @cepr_org

📣 Level up in HANK modeling: BASEforHANK is back! Following our Winter School, @christianbaye13, @bornecon and I are running the BASEforHANK Spring School, March 1–10, 2027, at @DIW_Berlin. Want to solve and estimate HANK models for your own research? Join us for hands-on training in Julia with BASEtoolbox.jl; from household problems and equilibrium computation to solving and estimating heterogeneous-agent business-cycle models. Already working with HANK? We’ll also cover: Two-country HANK models Aggregate uncertainty with ambiguity-averse agents Higher-order perturbation using the DEGM approach 💻 March 1–5: foundations, online 📍 March 8–10: advanced HANK methods, in person at DIW Berlin. Morning lectures, afternoon hands-on sessions in small groups. For PhD students, postdocs and professionals—whether you’re getting started or extending your HANK toolkit. ⏰ Apply by November 15, 2026. An early-bird academic discount is available for eligible PhD students and postdocs, with enrollment by December 6. Enrollment runs until mid January 2027. Details & applications: diw.de/en/diw_01.c.1020133.e… Please share with interested students and colleagues. See you online and in Berlin! #HANK #Macroeconomics #JuliaLang

✔️ Abschaffung Rente mit 63: von SPD und CDU-Ost-MPs in Frage gestellt ✔️ Steuererhöhung für Mini-Jobs: Von der CSU in Frage gestellt ✔️ Pflegereform: Von der SPD in Frage gestellt ✔️ Steuerreform: Von der CDU in Frage gestellt ✔️ Wohngeldreform: von der SPD in Frage gestellt 1/3

Die Bebauung des Tempelhofer Feldes wuerde die Aktionäre von Vonovia kostengünstiger “enteignen”’

Wenn man im Wertegerüst der alten Republik an die Vermögen der Wohnungskonzerne will, dann weist man Bauland aus und überarbeitet Bebauungspläne so wie @TschenPe s Regierung in HH. Dann gibt es auch tatsächlich mehr Wohnungen.

🧵 #Tankrabatt ist nicht alleine: In der letzten Dekade wurden viele neue (Dauer)subventionen geschaffen: E-Auto-Prämien, GEG-Heizungsförderung, Industriestrompreis, Mütterrente & Gastro-Privilegien... Zusammen ca. 37 Mrd. €/Jahr. Was wäre, hätte man Arbeit entlastet?

Ökonomenpreise des Vereins für Socialpolitik gehen an Gabriel Felbermayr, Christopher Roth und Benjamin Born. @GFelbermayr @VfS_econ @christopherroth @faznet faz.net/-3bt1gg?share=Twitte…

🏆 Der Carl-Menger-Preis 2026 geht an Benjamin Born! Der VfS zeichnet den Bonner Makroökonomen für seine herausragende Forschung zu Konjunkturzyklen sowie Geld- und Fiskalpolitik aus. Herzlichen Glückwunsch! 🎉 Danke an SNB, @oenb und @DeutscheBundesbank. #VfSConf_2026

My 2 cents for students: 1. Unless you find a Prof who works shoulder-to-shoulder with you, a pre-doc won’t make you a more mature PhD candidate. 2. Pre-doc coauthorships may eat into PhD solo-research time. 3. Life is short: commit to a 5-year PhD. Make every second count.

ifo Institut: PISA-Abstieg gefährdet unseren Wohlstand Der eklatante Abstieg der PISA-Ergebnisse muss zu einem Umdenken in der Bildung führen. Die Vermittlung der Basiskompetenzen muss höchste Priorität haben. Link zum ausführlichen Statement im Kommentar 👇🏻