Historically, falling real consumer incomes have often been a warning sign of a major recession. Yet today, the economy remains resilient despite -ve real income growth. Is this time truly different, or is history about to repeat itself? A thread 🧵

25/ This is why so many people are calling the Fed's actions a policy mistake. But we don't think that label fully captures the dilemma. The alternative is to let the AI investment boom keep expanding. And history suggests that the longer these booms continue, the more painful their eventual collapse can be. We've seen this pattern with the stock market boom of the 1920s, the dot-com bubble, and the housing bubble.