The past week was one of the most joyous – and scary – of my life. (a 🧵) I gave birth to my daughter and my heart grew several sizes. Then the “silent killer” after childbirth hit me and I nearly died.

Gas prices will remain above $4 a gallon (nat'l average) through the election. That's a significant shift from recent past. Even 2022 was about fifty cents lower November 2026: Likely to be ~$4.30 to $4.40 November 2024: $3.07 November 2022: $3.80 November 2020: $2.11 November 2018: $2.75 November 2016: $2.23 Brent oil prices just spiked to nearly their highest level since the war in Iran began ($116, about $2 off the spring highs). WTI oil price for the US just topped $103, which is about $10 off the spring highs. Bottom line: Oil/gas prices aren't going down until there's a resolution to the war.

I'm thrilled to be launching Econvitals today. It's been the main way in which I have been tracking and understanding the economy over the last several months. And I decided I might as well share it with all of you--for free. Has a combo of website, email lists & social media.

Like every other econ reporter, I've spent much of the past couple years trying to understand what A.I. will mean for the economy and for workers. But it's been frustratingly hard to reach any firm conclusions, because so much is uncertain -- how the technology will evolve, how quickly it will be adopted, how policymakers will respond.

We've had two hot inflation prints in a row, and yet rates have been sliding. The entire market is all about the AI trade, and the recent jitters about Anthropic's revenue numbers matter way more than some random government datapoint right now.

Another day, another hot inflation report. Business inflation surged in September to 6.3% (!). The expectation was 5.4%. Every category of business inflation was hot, even after stripping away energy costs. It's inevitable that companies will pass some of these costs along to consumers. It's yet another reason this fight against inflation is likely to be longer than anyone wants. Business (wholesale) inflation: 6.3% Consumer Inflation: 3.7%

With the midterm elections just three weeks away, a new inflation report shows prices rising faster than expected, putting more pressure on Americans struggling with the cost of everyday essentials. @RealAmnaNawaz speaks to @byHeatherLong for more.

Just In: There will be a 3.6% cost of living adjustment for Social Security payments in 2027. That's the highest since 2023. It will help offset some of the financial pain right now on retirees. The increase is notably higher than the average 3% wage gain many workers are getting.

Inflation has nearly wiped out all wage gains since January 2025. That's how big of gamechanger the war in Iran has been on Americans' finances. Since January 2025: CPI Inflation has grown +5.4% Wages (average hourly earnings) +5.5% This is a very different picture from President Trump's first term when wages were up over 15%, well above about 8% inflation. It helps explain the frustration many households feel right now with the economy.

Here's the key problem...inflation has wiped out wage gains for 6 months now. It's a financial squeeze. Americans are trying to work more hours to make up for it, but many are still falling behind. Many people are worse off. As BLS wrote, In the past year, "real average hourly earnings decreased 0.7%. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a 0.6% increase in the average workweek resulted in a 0.1% decrease in real average weekly earnings."

This is a rough September inflation report. -Biggest monthly jump since May -Higher than expected inflation AND core inflation -Core Inflation for the past 3 months is running at well over a 3% annualized pace...that's problematic -Inflation (3.7%) totally wiping out wage gains (3%) Yes, high gas and diesel prices are the major driver, but also big jumps in airfares, used car prices, recreation, medical and apparel. The energy shock is spreading.

JUST IN: A hot inflation report. Inflation jumped back up to 3.7% (y/y) in September, the highest rate since May. The spike was largely driven by rising gas and diesel prices. Higher airfares and used car prices also triggered the 0.6% monthly gain (biggest since May). Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, climbed to 2.6% -->This was worse than expected and up from 2.4% in August. The big problem = Inflation rose 3.7% in the past year, wiping out 3% average wage gains.

Great conversation on what is driving bond yields higher in the U.S., France and elsewhere and how worried we should be. Is it really about strong growth? I’m skeptical…

How high and how long? @byHeatherLong and @johnauthers talk with @sarahsholder about the surge in global bond yields and where the pressure could hit next. 🎙️Listen now: link.podtrac.com/3mw4ygxn

The financial pain is real: Wage growth fell to 3% (y/y) in September. That's the lowest in 5 years. Wage growth: 3% Inflation: ~3.4% Inflation has eaten up all wage gains for the average worker since April. Many people are having to make hard choices about what to buy and what to skimp on right now. Yes, consumption is still strong (mainly due to wealthier Americans and people dipping into savings or credit cards), but a lot of people have to think hard about every dollar they spend. Notable: Wages only ticked up 0.1% in the month of September. That was the weakest monthly gain since December 2025.

Who's hiring right now? A: Healthcare and firms that build or supply data centers. Look at the employment gains in the past 3 months. Healthcare accounts for ~half of the job gains Healthcare: +72,000 Construction: +45,000 Manufacturing: +44,000 Total job gains in past 3 months: +152,000 This picture underscores how this is a robust, but unequal economy. Anything that touches AI (or eldercare) doing well. Other areas are mixed bag.

The September jobs report tell us the 'low hire, low fire' job market is still here. There was hope that hiring was picking up, but it's stabilizing at a low ~50k a month. Take a look at the stats: Average job growth in 2026 YTD: 68,000 a month Past 6 month of job growth average: 66,000 a month Past 3 months of job growth average: 51,000 a month 2026 is better than 2025 for hiring. But there still isn't much hiring outside of healthcare and jobs to build/supply data centers.

The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% in September, but for a good reason: nearly half a million more people looked for a job. The labor force grew by 485,000 in September Labor force participation rose to 61.8% -->highest since May Many people did find employment (+406k on employed), but some did not and that's why the unemployment rate rose.

JUST IN: A medicore September jobs report. The US economy added only 29,000 jobs in September (well below ~80k expected). On top of that, there were downward revisions: July was revised down to -10k and August to 133k. Unemployment rate: 4.2% (up from 4.1% in August) The biggest sore spot = wage growth of 3% in past year. That’s a new 5-year low and it’s wiped out entirely by ~3.4% inflation.

Important: Consumption is still the No. 1 driver of the US economy. Last year this chart (left, from the great Neil Dutta @RenMacLLC) got a lot of attention. It showed the AI investment boom adding **more** to US GDP than consumption. That was short-lived. Now we have more data (see chart on right). The picture is clearer: Consumption is still the biggest US GDP driver, but AI capex has added a lot of extra oomph (often close to a full percentage point) Basically, the AI boom has pushed the economy in 2025 and 2026 from OK to strong. The problem? Not much of Main Street is feeling that extra oomph...

(FT) - Diesel prices will not return to normal for more than a year, according to US oil and gas executives surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. @FT $CRAK ft.com/content/0d74d66a-a9ee…