Could not disagree more.
In my experience, the three main factors that determine success, in ranked of importance, are:
1. HARD WORK/RESILIENCE
1a. (tie) LUCK/OPPORTUNITY
…
3. TALENT/NATURAL SKILL
I think a lot of the so-called “naturally talented” people are folks who, early on, had a necessary but not sufficient amount of natural ability and so leaned into whatever field they were good at - but had the grit and Kobe-like determination to put in the work to become better and develop their craft until they were great. And the resilience to keep trying even after they inevitably hit a roadblock. And there’s nothing more American than idealizing grit and resilience. But under-appreciated, yet equally deterministic to success is luck and opportunity, sometimes in the form of privilege — having more doors open and chances to get the lucky break needed to make the most of the opportunity once you get it.
“You don’t study for the spelling bee” is a deep and important aspect of American culture. I was at a baseball game discussing some young players with a buddy one time and he said to me offhandedly, “hard work is fine, but nothing beats talent.”
Americans have this sort of sense that there’s something a little off about working really hard to get good at something that you’re not naturally good at. You’re never really going to be on the same level as the guy who has a natural talent. We have room in our hearts for scrappy little guys who work hard, but we are by default suspicious of grinders and strivers.
If you were really meant to do it, then you’d be naturally good at it. You sign your kids up for little league, but you don’t take it too seriously unless they show remarkable early talent.
Yes, this sounds sort of ridiculous if you take it too literally. No, nobody is saying that there’s any kind of practical test for this or that anybody should be excluded because we found out that they secretly studied too hard.
But this is a part of American culture. And if you can’t understand it, then that just marks you out as foreign to that culture to an even greater degree.