@nytimes correspondent writing about the Federal Reserve and the US economy. Previously @FT, @TheEconomist, @BloombergTV. colby.smith@nytimes.com
New York, NY
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Colby Smith retweeted
President Trump says the economy is great. Americans, overwhelmingly, disagree. With early voting underway in the midterms, what does the data show?
My answer, in three formats:
Story: nytimes.com/2026/10/18/busin…
Podcast: nytimes.com/2026/10/21/podca…
Video: nytimes.com/video/business/1…
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Warsh in Bangkok did little to convey any urgency about the need to raise rates in October, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will stand pat later this month.
nytimes.com/2026/10/16/busin… @nytimes @PatcohenNYT
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Colby Smith retweeted
Inflation ticks up to 3.7%, above the 3.0% it was when Trump took office, according to the last report before midterm elections that appear to be turning in large part on economic pessimism and concerns about affordability. @colbyLsmith nytimes.com/live/2026/10/14/…
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"Supercore" inflation, which tracks core services excluding housing, came in hot for the second month in a row in September. It rose 0.4% on a monthly basis. Over the past three months, it has risen at an annual rate of nearly 4.6%
nytimes.com/live/2026/10/14/… @nytimes @bencasselman
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"A hearing with demonstrably biased members, unspecified additional allegations, and an unclear schedule for the disclosure of any additional evidence — with no explanation for why it was not previously produced — is not a process that respects the appearance or history of independence," wrote Lowell
NEW: In a letter seen by @nytimes, Lisa Cook's lawyer denounces the objectivity of Trump's new inquiry into allegations she committed mortgage fraud.
Abbe Lowell writes to the White House that Cook cannot make the Nov. 5 hearing because she will in Europe "at financial and monetary policy meetings." Earliest possible date he says is after the FOMC's December meeting.
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NEW: In a letter seen by @nytimes, Lisa Cook's lawyer denounces the objectivity of Trump's new inquiry into allegations she committed mortgage fraud.
Abbe Lowell writes to the White House that Cook cannot make the Nov. 5 hearing because she will in Europe "at financial and monetary policy meetings." Earliest possible date he says is after the FOMC's December meeting.
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New statement from Lisa Cook's lawyers after the White House's announcement that it has launched a committee to investigate allegations that she committed mortgage fraud
nytimes.com/2026/10/09/busin… @nytimes
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So far, officials have used a variety to words to signal no hike in October.
Williams said there was no "urgency." Jefferson called for "more time" and now Waller says the Fed has "flexibility" to determine the timing of further moves that he acknowledges are necessary
nytimes.com/2026/10/08/busin… @nytimes
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Fed officials cited a number of different reasons why September's rate hike was necessary, per minutes from the meeting.
Many said it was necessary for risk-management considerations. Others suggested the economic conditions alone warranted it. Another cohort flagged the need to keep expectations in check. Several also said they did not consider the Fed's previous policy settings either "restrictive or only mildly restrictive"
nytimes.com/2026/10/07/busin… @nytimes
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Colby Smith retweeted
The A.I. investment boom is contributing to inflation. It also appears nearly immune to high interest rates. That’s a challenging combination for the Fed — with potentially serious implications for the rest of the economy.
With @colbyLsmith:
nytimes.com/2026/10/05/busin…
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NEW w/ @bencasselman: The Fed has a conundrum on its hands as it tries to tame elevated inflation. One of the primary drivers of growth — A.I. — appears nearly immune to the higher borrowing costs the central bank has begun to impose on the economy.
That means the Fed might need to tighten the screws on the economy more than otherwise would be the case to sufficiently slow down activity to return inflation to the 2% target.
The brunt of that adjustment will fall predominantly on industries more sensitive to higher rates, such as housing and the automotive sector, and in turn the people employed by the companies in those fields.
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Officials at the Fed have long maintained that the labor market is not a source of inflationary pressure, and September's jobs report further reinforces that view.
Wage growth was muted as the pace of monthly jobs growth slowed and the unemployment rate ticked up slightly nytimes.com/live/2026/10/02/… @nytimes
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In new remarks Lorie Logan of the Dallas Fed attributes the move higher in long-term yields to brightening growth expectations, changing conceptions of the neutral rate and higher term premiums.
While she says further hikes are necessary to get inflation back to 2%, higher term premiums "can slow the economy, reducing the need to tighten monetary policy."
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Jefferson, echoing Williams this week, says the Fed may need "more time" to assess the timing of further rate increases.
That suggests no action at October's meeting but an increase in December, in keeping with September's SEP which showed just one more 25bp hike this year
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Trump says Powell should be forced to resign from the board (he is currently serving out his term as governor, which ends in Jan 2028)
"He can’t manage a Building, and he certainly shouldn’t be allowed to manage his High Interest Rate Policy (only on 'TRUMP!'). I have asked Attorney General Todd Blanche to study the report, and make a determination as to what to do about a relatively small Building Complex that is Hundreds of Millions of Dollars over budget, and is now going to cost, according to the Report, at least 2.5 Billion Dollars, with no end in sight."
Fed's IG report finds no illegal activity or administrative misconduct in the central bank's nearly $2.5 bn renovations of its headquarters in Washington, even as it concludes that the project was poorly managed and did not have sufficient budget constraints in place.
In a letter to the IG, Warsh said he had enlisted the help of GSA to complete the project and said there would be an audit of the construction costs, among other initiatives
nytimes.com/2026/09/30/busin… @nytimes
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Statement from Tim Scott, chair of the Senate Banking Committee: "In April, I called for a full accounting of the egregious cost overruns from the Federal Reserve’s building renovation, and today, I welcome the Inspector General’s report. Inflation does not change the Fed’s responsibility to manage its resources prudently and be accountable to Congress. This Committee will continue rigorous oversight to ensure the Fed is transparent and stays focused on its mission"
Fed's IG report finds no illegal activity or administrative misconduct in the central bank's nearly $2.5 bn renovations of its headquarters in Washington, even as it concludes that the project was poorly managed and did not have sufficient budget constraints in place.
In a letter to the IG, Warsh said he had enlisted the help of GSA to complete the project and said there would be an audit of the construction costs, among other initiatives
nytimes.com/2026/09/30/busin… @nytimes
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Fed's IG report finds no illegal activity or administrative misconduct in the central bank's nearly $2.5 bn renovations of its headquarters in Washington, even as it concludes that the project was poorly managed and did not have sufficient budget constraints in place.
In a letter to the IG, Warsh said he had enlisted the help of GSA to complete the project and said there would be an audit of the construction costs, among other initiatives
nytimes.com/2026/09/30/busin… @nytimes
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