Some fundamental flaws, imo:
1. A balance sheet is just 1.0. When btc gains it grows, sure. But that is what anyone can get with just buying spot. Share price is a function of 1.0 x premium. 1.0 going up with BTC merely keeps up with BTC.
2. You say mNAV “expands” when btc goes up. IMO, Incorrect. Companies get multiples/premiums from only one thing: forward looking expectations of NON-dilutive gains. (Dilution simply asymptotes a company’s future ability to generate gains/earnings per share.) Every ATM trends Saylor to 1.0. Every ATM makes him more and more like an IBIT. Because every ATM makes future efforts to generate gains for shareholders they much harder. Forever.
It is true, when BTC starts posting a better CAGR, the gain from the arbitrage will be higher, and the harm from dilution lower and less frequent. So expectations will relatively improve.
But there is no escaping the asymptote of dilution. The structural mNAV ceiling on their ability to earn per share has been dramatically lowered, and will continue to be wrecked further with each ATM.
The only way to restore premium (informed by btc-denominated EPS) is to “earn” more btc per share (numerator) in the future, by the same % as the dilution they ran (denominator).
Given how much they’ve blown up their outstanding shares, and killed the one accretive and successful earner they had (the converts), that’s a tall order.
As all bitcoiners should intuitively know at this point:
dilution is ruinous.