Director & Head of Qualitative Research at Public First.
London, England
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.@bertslide1 and I spent 5 days observing people in Bolton pubs. Why did we do it? And what did we learn?
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I've written for The Spectator about the electoral challenges Reform might face in a post-Farage world.
Central to this is the lack of alternative leaders within the party who have strong cut-through with the public, including Reform voters.
Mere months ago, the suggestion that Nigel Farage could step down as the leader of Reform would have felt absurd. The party was leading in the polls, had won the local elections, and Farage had an iron grip on the leadership.
But now media scrutiny is growing and rumours are awash that he has at least considered throwing in the towel. The Clacton by-election circus has not gone down well.
The idea of a post-Farage Reform might not be so far-fetched. But who would replace him? And what would his departure from frontline politics mean for the party?
✍️ Ed Shackle
Article | spectator.com/article/can-re…
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Ed Shackle retweeted
Mere months ago, the suggestion that Nigel Farage could step down as the leader of Reform would have felt absurd. The party was leading in the polls, had won the local elections, and Farage had an iron grip on the leadership.
But now media scrutiny is growing and rumours are awash that he has at least considered throwing in the towel. The Clacton by-election circus has not gone down well.
The idea of a post-Farage Reform might not be so far-fetched. But who would replace him? And what would his departure from frontline politics mean for the party?
✍️ Ed Shackle
Article | spectator.com/article/can-re…
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1/5 New Public First polling for Sunday Times
48% of voters believe Farage has triggered by-election to head off investigations into his finance. Incl more than 1 in 4 Ref voters
33% believe it is to give the public their say on whether they believe accusations against him
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Voters generally feel that Farage is treated too favourably by the media. As they do, Andy Burnham.
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1/4 On this podcast I discussed how difficult it will be for Burnham to get the public to take levelling up promises seriously.
Our new research shows that £19bn has been spent on levelling up since 2016 & those areas that have received money remain MORE likely to vote Reform.
On today's Reality Check podcast: Andy Burnham has laid out his plans to 'level up the North'. Something we have heard with almost every Prime Minister pledge to do – but with very little clarity over how this will be achieved and what success looks like.
It's true there is a clear divide when it comes to economic outcomes between London and the North. Michael Simmons takes a look at the data and discusses a left-wing levelling up agenda with Ed Shackle, Head of Qualitative Research at Public First, and Neil O'Brien, Conservative MP and former minister for Levelling up.
Listen | spectator.com/podcast/burnha…
@Simmons__ | @ed_shackle | @NeilDotObrien
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3/4 In our focus groups in those places which received the most funding people have noticed some of the things this money has been spent on but this still isn't moving the dial. They are still very very angry about crime and immigration etc.
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We ran this group in the crucial swing state of Georgia.
It followed our national poll, which found that only 36% of Americans gave Trump a score of 6 or higher when asked to rate his performance since taking office.
What do voters think of Trump ahead of midterm elections
channel4.com/news/what-do-vo…
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Ed Shackle retweeted
We conducted 50+ interviews with Makerfield residents
- Restore are a significant presence
- Tactical voting is in play, but debates on this are on the right
- Burnham’s recognition is giving Lab a big boost but support is still lukewarm
Full report
publicfirst.co.uk/exploring_…
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Today is Remembrance Day, but is it still seen as important in modern Britain?
With The Times, we spoke to voters on Remembrance Sunday in 2 very different parts of the country - Sunderland & Saffron Walden - to find out if it still holds relevance in these communities.
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But we also found signs that Remembrance Day is becoming a political wedge, with people in Sunderland using the day to channel concerns over a perceived erosion of British values & identity.
While at the same time, fears of this happening were raised in Saffron Walden.
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This work marks the start of a wider project we are running over the coming months, which explores modern Britain, and the values and identity shared across the UK today.
Full story below:
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thetimes.com/uk/politics/art…
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Ed Shackle retweeted
Voters don’t choose Reform because of their policy position on net zero.
✍️ Ed Shackle
spectator.co.uk/article/bade…
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By vowing to repeal the Climate Change Act Kemi Badenoch has fundamentally misread public opinion on net zero.
She also risks confirming voters' worst prejudices about politicians. The public want promises delivered, not ditched.
Me in The Spectator.
spectator.co.uk/article/bade…
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