$STNE is trading at a discount because its loan portfolio is deteriorating, not because Brazil has been forgotten.
Second-quarter revenue was 3.59 billion reais, up just 2.5% year-over-year. Total payments rose 4% year-over-year, but customer retention has yet to improve.
The loan portfolio doubled year-over-year to 3.8 billion reais, with loan revenue up 14%; adjusted gross profit of 1.56 billion reais remained essentially flat, as provisions ate into the growth. Delinquencies between 15 and 90 days rose from 2.51% a year ago to 6.00%, while delinquencies over 90 days stood at 8.60%. The cost of risk accounted for 21.5% of loans.
Retail deposits totaled 10.8 billion, up 22% year-over-year, with 4.8 million active customers. Full-year adjusted earnings per share guidance remains at 10.8–11.4 reais; the company itself stated it will prioritize meeting the lower end of the range amid high interest rates. The price-to-earnings ratio is approximately 4x, with a market capitalization of roughly 2.2–3.0 billion. The average sell price is 14.30, and the consensus rating is Hold.
Last Thursday and Friday, trading volume surged in call options expiring on October 16 with a strike price of $9.47, with open interest jumping from approximately 3,200 contracts to over 14,000. This represents a short-term bet near the low point, not an order anticipating a doubling of the price in three years. Last Friday’s close was 9.55. The 52-week range is 8.95–19.64.
Today’s range looks more like 9.10–10.00. Only after a firm hold above 10.00 can we talk about 10.80; if it drops below 8.95, credit provisions will be priced in before sentiment toward Brazil.
#QQQ #STOCK #STNE