Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. Felix, alongside his retriever Winston, interprets the economy and market (Not a broker / NFA)
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I just sat down with Tom Bilyeu on his podcast.
Here are the 8 things I told him about how inflation is silently hurting the average American, America's $40T debt problem and Japan's carry trade:
1) If you JUST have a salary, it will lead to poverty
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Felix Nikolas Prehn on the four cracks running underneath Europe right now — and why three of them have already crossed the Atlantic, while the fourth is the one that decides what happens to your portfolio.
Today's video is now on podcast. Felix Nikolas Prehn walks through the four cracks in order: the pension promises no government actually set aside money to pay for, the generation locked out of the homes and the lives their parents had on one income, the cost of energy that just closed a Volkswagen factory for the first time in 89 years, and the quiet fourth crack — the one where money and talent simply pick up a suitcase and leave without announcing it. Britain is now one of the top five places on earth the wealthy are departing. Norway raised taxes on the rich and lost billions overnight to Switzerland. Wise, Flutter, and CRH moved their listings to New York without making a fuss. And Prehn holds each crack up against America — two are already showing, one is a genuine advantage for now, and the fourth has not arrived yet, which is the only window that matters for arranging your money before it does.
🎙 Spotify: open.spotify.com/show/5uV7Ip…
🎙 Buzzsprout: buzzsprout.com/1920505/episo…
Not investment advice. Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker.
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Debt without austerity: how the United States cut its debt-to-GDP ratio by 45 percentage points without paying the money back
In 1946 US federal debt stood at 119.1 per cent of GDP. By 1951 it was 73.6 per cent. The government had not paid most of it back. Inflation did the work, by design.
Front cover of The Inflation Tax by Felix Nikolas Prehn
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The arrangement ended with the Treasury-Fed Accord of March 1951, freeing the Fed to raise rates. Gold's price was fixed at $35; Americans could not legally own bullion until end-1974, so it offered no market hedge.
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Six years of below-inflation rates cut the debt ratio 45 percentage points. Savers bore the cost. felixprehn.com/books/the-inf…
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The AI boom is borrowing money at a pace we’ve NEVER seen before.
And the numbers are getting hard to ignore.
In 2020, project-finance borrowing across the entire economy hit a record of $25 BILLION. By mid-October 2026, it had reached $105 BILLION. That's more than 4x the old record.
And according to my research, almost all of it is tied to AI.
Here’s why that matters.
> Project finance is a loan for a specific project
> The loan gets repaid from the income that project generates
Think of lending someone money to open a café and getting paid back only if that café makes money.
Now apply that to AI data centres.
> Lenders are taking on more risk, and they’re demanding more compensation for it.
> The extra interest paid by junk-rated data-centre borrowers has more than doubled since the summer.
> Morgan Stanley counted around 20 project-finance-style junk bonds worth roughly $46 BILLION.
> Some pay 15% to 16% interest a year.
That’s expensive borrowing.
The Nasdaq 100 just lost $1.2 TRILLION in a single afternoon.
Everyone thinks the AI crash investors have warned about for years is finally here. If it were, we'd be entering one of the darkest moments in market history.
Why it's not (and what it actually is): 🧵
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PS. I put the research behind this into a FREE report.
It breaks down the AI sell-off, record hedge fund short-selling, the debt beneath the AI boom, and 7 things to check in your own portfolio.
Read it here: felixfriends.org/rotation
Get "The UNTHINKABLE is About to Happen to Your Portfolio" research report for Free
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PPS. I also broke down the AI sell-off, record short-selling, and the debt beneath the AI boom in my latest YouTube video.
19 minutes, and worth every minute.
Watch it here: piped.video/watch?v=1UekQcI2…
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A company just claimed it can make REAL gold in a lab.
If true, everyone should sell their gold right now... because unlimited new supply would go against the entire reason people hold it. But this isn't the case (for now).
Here’s what's happening: 🧵
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PS. I put the research behind this into a FREE report.
It breaks down the claim that mercury can be turned into REAL GOLD, whether lab-made gold could threaten gold prices, and what investors need to know before reacting to the headlines.
Read it here:
felixfriends.org/fake-gold
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PPS. I also broke down the BIG question in my latest YouTube video:
Can lab-made gold actually threaten gold prices?
20 minutes, and worth every minute.
Watch it here:
piped.video/watch?v=95gMiKnW…
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