Sometimes I expose Gurus and sometimes I give my opinion on metals prices as a physical commodity trader. Not financial advice !
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🧵 High interest rates are supposed to kill Gold and Silver.
History says that’s only half true.
The rate that matters is the real rate: nominal rate minus inflation.
High rates + higher inflation = metals can rip.
High rates + crushed inflation = metals get wrecked.
Grab a coffee, and let's study this. 🤓👇
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Just deployed my last $1,000 into Gold and Silver to try and put a bottom in.
Investing Addict
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Just added more Silver at these levels.
Why? Conviction.
I have no idea where the price will be in two or three months.
But I do know future me will be glad I’m accumulating here.
When in doubt, zoom out.
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Market just flipped from “rates are crushing multiples” to “earnings and cash flow actually matter.”
That’s not a dip. That’s a regime change.
When the names that beat still get sold and AI spend goes from bullish to a liability, you’re watching forced selling, not healthy profit-taking.
Good companies will be fine. Weak hands won’t.
Stay patient.
Liquidity is the edge right now.
Went through everything this morning.
Feels like the market tone really shifted.
$AMZN and $INTC both got hit hard on earnings. $SNDK's numbers were the ones that actually held up.
Amazons issue is AI spend is too aggressive and cash flow pressure is building. Intel is the Q4 revenue guide coming in below expectations. Even strong server CPU demand didnt save the mood.
Sandisk put up a solid report and still couldnt fully escape the tech selling.
The ironic part is the stronger storage demand gets and the better the numbers look, the louder the AI bubble debate gets.
Looking back, July through September the market was mostly worried about rates. It was killing valuation.
By October the Q3 reports started triggering sells. The market started worrying about future earnings and cash flow.
From killing valuation to worrying about results. Thats the shift Im most careful about.
Seen a lot of professional investors break this stretch.
A string of down days can turn into a negative loop.
Price drops, leveraged positions get forced out, the selling pushes the price lower again.
Nasdaq sentiment is already spreading into the broader tech group.
Right now the only thing that can save the market is Trump. If he puts out real policy support it could improve risk appetite.
I see two paths.
1. The market clears itself. Wait for valuation and positioning to reset, then slowly pick up shares at lower levels.
2. Nasdaq puts in a volume bounce, rates ease or policy shows up, and money becomes willing to take risk again.
Im more inclined to stay patient for now.
Good companies still have value. After a string of pullbacks what the market needs most is confidence coming back.
Thought about this before the open. Good trading to everyone.
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Today I remember all the posts from January, when Gold and Silver were at all-time highs with rates still elevated, warning that “something will break” or “something has to give.”
Fast forward to today and the only thing that broke was the metals themselves.
What I want to talk about is the constant fantasising of an Armageddon scenario or massive financial crisis that dominates this app.
I’ve been on Twitter since 2019 and the pattern is clear: a large number of people are always “hoping” for the huge crisis that never quite arrives.
By waiting for it, a lot of people missed enormous rallies. The S&P 500 is up roughly 150% over the last six years.
At the end of the day, the only reliable way to build wealth is by consistently investing every month in the assets you actually believe in: stocks, gold, silver, Bitcoin, etc.
I feel sorry for everyone who got misled by big accounts into buying gold and silver at the absolute highs just because “something was about to break.”
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Fthegurus retweeted
The bulls were vocal. The bulls were confident. Yet only in words.
I'm starting to believe the lower regions of the buying zone are likely.
Silver is not an investment.
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Gold, if you’re going to lose the $4,000 support, do it with conviction.
Flush it clean and get it over with.
This endless chop around the level is exhausting.
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Silver looks like it wants to test the $50/oz support.
That will be the most important battle for the bulls.
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If you only buy Gold and Silver when it’s going up, you’re doing it backwards.
The real investor buys when it’s boring, hated, or quietly consolidating.
The guru claims he is buying when it’s exciting and then disappears when it corrects.
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Gold doesn’t go up.
Your currency goes down.
Most people still look at the price in dollars and think Gold is “expensive.”
They’re measuring it with a shrinking ruler.
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Gold is the same ounce today as it was 1000 years ago.
The dollar is not the same dollar as 3 years ago.
Most people still don’t get it.
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Silver.
My call for silver to hit $70/oz by mid-November is officially cancelled.
I was wrong. No excuses, no talk of manipulation, no victimhood—just a bad prediction.
The weakness in Silver has been striking.
After the Fed paused rate hikes and shifted to a more cautious “wait and see” stance, I expected at least a relief rally.
It didn’t materialize.
That tells you something about the current underlying demand and sentiment.
Does this mean silver is a bad investment? Absolutely not.
It remains a core holding in a well-diversified portfolio for the long term.
But if you’re looking for a quick trade or meaningful upside in the coming weeks or months, I don’t see it.
Claiming $70 is right around the corner would be irresponsible.
The key levels to watch are the supports at $50 and $45. Holding those would be constructive.
A break below them would be psychologically damaging and open the door to a deeper correction.
Low volatility is ahead.
Patience is the only honest take right now.
Silver.
Two weeks ago, with silver at $58, I said we’d hit $70 by November 15.
Fast forward to today: it’s sitting just under $54/oz.
Am I ready to say I was wrong?
Not yet.
Silver is at its most oversold RSI levels of the year. I’d be genuinely surprised if we don’t get a relief rally next week.
A rate hike is already priced in, which limits how much further we can realistically fall from here.
We’re still holding the $54 support.
This is not the moment to get scared.
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When mainstream articles like this start appearing, it often signals that the market is near a bottom.
It’s the same kind of extreme call we saw when Bank of America targeted $300 Silver right at the top.
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10 ounces of Gold bought you 2 square meters of average U.S. housing in 1971.
Today those same 10 ounces buy roughly 18 square meters.
Brutal.
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US debt every October:
2017: $20.2T
2018: $21.5T
2019: $22.7T
2020: $27.0T
2021: $28.5T
2022: $31.0T
2023: $33.3T
2024: $35.7T
2025: $37.8T
2026: $40.5T
Doubled in a decade.
But we have nothing to worry about, we will grow out of it…
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