Market analyst. I give my opinion on the following: macroeconomics, markets, tech impact, global news, Bitcoin. market psychology, trading and investing, NFA
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$SPCX reported Q3 revenue of $14.58B, up 161% YoY and ahead of estimates.
Adjusted EBITDA reached $8.81B while Super Intelligence revenue jumped to $7.56B.
Starlink subscribers hit 13.6 million with CapEx of $19.59B.
🚀 🤖🛰️
SPACEX $SPCX Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $14.58B (Est. $12.87B) 🟢; +161% YoY
🔹 EPS: $0.35; vs -$0.36 LY
🔹 Operating Income: $2.79B (Est. $2.24B) 🟢
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: $8.81B (Est. $6.59B) 🟢; +306% YoY
🔹 Net Income: $4.40B; vs -$1.05B LY
CapEx:
🔹 Total CapEx: $19.59B (Est. $19.6B) 🟡
🔹 SI: $16.44B; +245% YoY
🔹 Space: $1.61B; +44% YoY
🔹 Connectivity: $1.54B; +53% YoY
Segment Revenue:
🔹 Space: $1.77B (Est. $1.43B) 🟢; +6% YoY
🔹 Connectivity: $5.25B (Est. $4.86B) 🟢; +69% YoY
🔹 SI: $7.56B; +830% YoY
Segment Operating Income:
🔹 Space: -$7M; vs $259M LY
🔹 Connectivity: $2.37B (Est. $1.86B) 🟢; +99% YoY
🔹 SI: $431M; vs -$1.72B LY
Segment Adj. EBITDA:
🔹 Space: $357M (Est. $123.1M) 🟢; -47% YoY
🔹 Connectivity: $3.50B (Est. $2.94B) 🟢; +82% YoY
🔹 SI: $4.95B; vs -$428M LY
Announcements:
🔸 First revenue-generating Starship mission delivered 26 Starlink V3 satellites, ~10x the downlink capacity added by a Falcon 9 Starlink launch
🔸 Planned Starbase, Louisiana spaceport for thousands of Starship flights a year, first launch targeted for 2029
🔸 Introduced Grok Bot, an always-on agentic SI system
Other Q3 Metrics:
🔹 Total Launches: 35 (Est. 41) 🔴; vs 44 LY
🔹 Mass to Orbit: 476 MT (Est. 559 MT) 🔴
🔹 Starlink Subscribers: 13.6M; +89% YoY
🔹 Starlink ARPU: $69/mo; vs $83 LY
🔹 Nameplate Compute: 1.7 GW
🔹 Cash & Equivalents: $51.29B
🔹 Marketable Securities: $38.56B
Key Updates:
🔸 Added $6.7B of incremental SI solutions and infrastructure revenue YoY, driven by cloud services agreements, the acquisition of Cursor and SI models and software applications
Comments:
🔸 CFO: Revenue grew an impressive 161% year-over-year, fueled by continued momentum in Connectivity and a clear inflection in our Super Intelligence business
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Hitbear retweeted
Elon Musk promised every child in the U.S. 1x free share of $SPCX
That’s ~ $10,5 BILLION in stock giveaways
Can he even do that?!
How do you get that free stock?!
Here’s everything you need to know:
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Hitbear retweeted
20 followers away from the big 1500 mark! Appreciate all of the recent support guys
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Hitbear retweeted
AMD and Intel have fought over every processor for decades. Today they agreed to share one AI toolkit. 🤝
Both will put their PyTorch work for x86 chips into one open-source library, oneDNN, and build new AI instructions together.
Even Phoronix said it "wasn't on my bingo card this year."
Full story: check out my eToro, link in bio 🔗
#AMD #Intel
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Hitbear retweeted
People say, “AI models are improving every day. We won’t need to check everything much longer.”
Here’s the mistake: better performance doesn’t mean every answer is correct.
AI can misunderstand a question, miss recent developments, or produce a convincing answer from incomplete information.
The higher the cost of being wrong, the more carefully you should verify.
Trust should be earned by evidence, not by how impressive the technology looks..
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Hitbear retweeted
🚨 GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS ARE FLASHING WARNING SIGNS. 🌍📉
🇯🇵 Japan: Nikkei continues falling.
🇮🇩 Indonesia: Nearly 15% wiped out in two trading sessions before today’s rebound.
🇹🇷 Turkey: BIST 100 fell 2.5% on Monday.
🇰🇷 South Korea: Stocks under heavy selling pressure.
🇪🇺 Europe: Major indexes slipping again.
Different countries. Different problems. But one thing in common: investors are becoming increasingly cautious.
Is this just a temporary global correction, or are we witnessing the early stages of something much bigger?
What do you think? 👀
BREAKING: 🇯🇵 Over ¥17.7 TRILLION ($112B) wiped out from Japanese stocks as the NIKKEI falls -1.5% for the second consecutive day.
The NIKKEI is now down almost -10% over the last 9 trading sessions.
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Hitbear retweeted
$AVGO is set to double its AI revenue in both 2027 and 2028 while the stock is down 30% from highs!
➡️ BUYING OPPORTUNITY📈
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Hitbear retweeted
Elon Musk says AI chips designed for space should "run hot" because raising operating temperatures by 20% in Kelvin could cut radiator mass in half significantly reducing the weight $SPCX needs to launch into orbit.
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Hitbear retweeted
Options expect $NFLX to move 9.5% either way after it reports after the close on Tuesday 20 October.
In 4 of its last 8 reports, the stock moved more than 9.5%.
My call: $NFLX moves more than 9.5% either way after the report.
Earnings season: what the options expect against what really happens.
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$10,000 in $SMCI in its first full week in 2007 was worth more than $1 million by March 2024. Eight months later it was down 84%. It is about $441,000 now.
One of its three founders has left its board twice: in 2018, after an investigation into its sales, and in March 2026, the day after he was charged over Nvidia servers shipped to China without a licence.
Here's what it cost to hold it, against a balanced portfolio.
Buy, sell, or hold $SMCI?
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Hitbear retweeted
A stock is up 30% in 3 days. Everyone is talking about it. I want to buy.
I stop and ask: why is it rising?
A rising price does not mean the business is improving. Here is what I check first:
1. Is there a real reason?
Better earnings, a major contract or an official announcement? Or just rumours on social media? If the price doubled and profits stayed flat, I look hard at the valuation.
2. Did trading volume jump suddenly?
I check official announcements and recent activity. High volume alone doesn't prove manipulation, but it deserves attention.
3. Can I sell if I need to?
I look at the bid-ask spread and how many shares are being traded. A price on the screen doesn't mean buyers are waiting.
4. Am I buying because of FOMO?
If I'm buying because others are celebrating, I'm late. By the time I hear about it, the excitement may already be in the price.
If I still want in, I wait a day, use a limit order, and start small, an amount I'd be fine holding if it drops.
A fast rising stock isn't automatically a bad buy. The danger is buying without understanding why.
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Hitbear retweeted
Before I buy a stock, I read the annual report. Not the tweets. Here are 7 red flags I look for:
1. A worrying auditor's opinion
Qualified, adverse or disclaimer of opinion, or a going concern warning. I read the explanation.
2. Profit up, cash flow weak
Accounting profit means little if the business isn't bringing in cash. One bad year is a question. A pattern is a concern.
3. Debt growing faster than the business
High borrowing and rising interest costs strain a company, especially with weak cash.
4. Sales up, margins down
More revenue, but less profit from each naira. I ask whether it's temporary or deeper.
5. Constant new share issues
If new shares keep coming and the money doesn't create enough value, existing shareholders get diluted.
6. Unclear related-party deals
Dealings with directors or major shareholders aren't automatically wrong, but unclear terms need answers.
7. Big promises, no evidence
I compare what management said last year with what actually happened.
Where to find the report: the company's investor relations page and official NGX disclosures. I read the auditor's report, the financial statements and the notes.
One red flag doesn't make a bad investment. I look at the context and several years, not just one.
Educational content, not financial advice.
Which red flag do you check first, or have you never opened an annual report?
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Hitbear retweeted
The most dangerous place to live is in your comfort zone.
It feels warm and safe, but nothing ever grows there.
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Hitbear retweeted
JP Morgan has reportedly deposited $38 million with the CBN as part of the requirements for a banking licence in Nigeria.
Two things to note: this comes from a Bloomberg report citing sources, and the CBN hasn't confirmed it yet.
It fits what JP Morgan's West Africa MD said earlier: the plan is a merchant bank, targeted before the end of 2026, once regulatory requirements are met.
It also comes after JP Morgan added Nigeria to its new emerging markets index on September 15, 2026, which was reported to have boosted confidence in the NGX.
What I take from it as an investor:
A global bank putting money down suggests real interest in our markets.
But a licence isn't approved until it's approved.
A merchant bank serves companies, not everyday savers.
And a headline is not a reason to buy a stock.
I'll watch for the official confirmation, the approval, and whether more foreign money actually flows into our bond and equity markets.
Educational content, not financial advice.
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Another reason I'm still bullish on $SPCX
NFA.
Grok Bot's daily users hit a new peak on October 17, roughly tripling since late September, per Similarweb's estimates.
That's just usage though, not revenue yet. But each new user costs little to add to software that's already running.
If that curve flattens and paid users never show up, I'd rethink it.
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🇩🇪 $AMZN plans to invest more than 16 billion euros in Germany in 2027, per Amazon's release.
Only one piece is broken out: 4.8 billion euros to expand AWS's Frankfurt cloud and AI region.
The rest covers Amazon Leo satellites, logistics and Prime Video, with no amounts.
If German and EU customers don't fill Frankfurt, it's idle capacity and higher depreciation, not revenue.
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Hitbear retweeted
Dead sentiment.
Everybody sees a stock down 40–50% and assumes something is wrong.
Okay, but WHY is it down?
If revenue is still growing 30–50%, backlog is sustained, and management has visibility into future demand, why is the stock getting smoked?
Thats the disconnect I’m hunting.
I’m digging into off-the-radar niche companies where the fundamentals tell a different story than the chart.
Backlog, book-to-bill, margins, balance sheets, future demand, and revenue visibility over the next several quarters and years.
Then I’m watching for oversold RSI, MACD shifts, selling pressure fading, and price holding key support.
I’m not buying just because something is down 50%. I want the business holding up while sentiment falls apart.
Managing it matters just as much. Scale in, define your invalidation, keep cash available, and don’t marry a ticker. I’m not trying to catch every falling knife. I’m hunting for situations where the market is looking backward while the business is still building forward.
We’re going hunting for dead sentiment bounces when we start ticketing again. I find off-the-radar niche companies where growth doesn’t go unnoticed if you look hard enough.
You can search for them yourself, or don’t. I’m searching 24/7 either way.
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Hitbear retweeted
I don’t care if there’s an AI bubble or not.
I just can’t believe this valuation gap is real.
After the big tech sell off last week, tech and growth stocks $XLK are now cheaper than healthcare stocks $XLV.
This is the main reason why I sold all my $UNH to buy AI stocks during the July dip.
And yet people are buying more healthcare stocks, more people are pivoting to safety despite the more expensive valuation.
Yes I know macro is ASS, but tech stocks are trading at their cheapest valuations in the past 5 years.
And tech companies yield the most returns over time.
Would you prefer tech or healthcare stocks right now?
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