This is a great post from
@b_judah. Ben's instinct to park the Commonwealth as a largely ceremonial, Palace-led affair, dial back Britain's political investment, and build something tighter around CANZUK leaders plus a practical investment summit with India makes a lot of sense. It is a clear-eyed and pragmatic response to the drift into poorly attended, reparations-dominated gatherings, and I hope it starts a serious debate.
My own concern is how quickly the space Britain would vacate is already being filled by others. Chinese capital has moved into the Caribbean in ways that are hard to ignore. By 2023 direct investment in the island countries had reached $3.3 billion, with infrastructure contracts running to $32.2 billion. Trade between China and the Caribbean grew from roughly $1 billion in 2002 to $8 billion by 2019, and at least ten Caribbean states have signed up to the Belt and Road Initiative since 2022. Across the wider Commonwealth, Beijing holds significant bilateral debt in 31 of the 56 members; between 2000 and 2023 it extended 1,306 loans worth $182 billion to African countries alone. Against that backdrop, a sharp reduction in British funding and ministerial attention does not create a vacuum so much as accelerate a shift already under way.
The CANZUK alternative has its own constraints. The four countries together number about 137–140 million people and generate a combined nominal GDP in the region of $8.3–8.8 trillion. Recent bilateral trade is real -UK–Canada goods and services at £31.1 billion, UK–Australia at £23.2 billion - but before Brexit the three partners accounted for only around 3.5% of UK trade against 47% for the EU. A CANZUK-plus-India platform may still struggle for consistent high-level buy-in amid divergent economic priorities and geography. The distances involve multiple time zones and hemispheres, and each member already has stronger regional pulls: Canada toward the United States, the UK toward Europe, Australia and New Zealand toward Asia. Overlapping arrangements such as the CPTPP add further friction. A new summit can complement these ties, but it's less clear it can substitute for the residual networks the Commonwealth still provides.
Perhaps it's too cynical to say, but even a carefully designed investment summit under the Commonwealth brand would still have to navigate demands for what is now routinely called "reparations in kind." Secretary-General Shirley Botchwey has described these as potentially including concessional financing, the return of artefacts, and climate measures. CARICOM's Ten-Point Plan similarly encompasses debt cancellation, health, education and related transfers. Developing Commonwealth members face climate financing needs running into the hundreds of billions annually; the Secretariat itself has so far facilitated only about $645 million. An open platform focused on investment is liable to be pressed to absorb some of these claims, recreating in a different register the agenda-capture problem the current CHOGM format has already demonstrated.
None of this is an argument against the direction Ben is pointing. The present CHOGM format has already turned into a net liability for British relationships, and pretending it can still serve as the main vehicle for post-imperial engagement just digs the hole deeper. Moving toward a tighter CANZUK-plus-India investment platform, with the Crown handling the residual cultural work, remains the cleaner and more realistic option - so long as London is clear-eyed about the influence contests and agenda pressures that will not simply disappear with the old summit. The alternative is not a revived Commonwealth, it's the slow, expensive continuation of something that has already stopped working.
I spent quite a lot of time in government trying to think through how to revive the Commonwealth but all of this thinking was depending on Botchwey taking a different line from Scotland on the organisation’s purpose: that it should not essentially be a biannual summit for the Caribbean to pressure Britain to pay reparations.
That, as CHOGM in Antigua approaches, has not come to pass. The summit attendance is barren with none of the major middle power leaders who have no interest in such a media fracas. Seen from Delhi in particular the whole things seems eccentric and self harming. However, Britain still needs a plan. Our objective should be as follows.
First, the organisation itself should be left to the Palace to steer into a kind of Royal super NGO and convening platform. But the organisation itself is so badly run and dysfunctional even this however is a challenge. It is not a British organisation of course but belongs to the member states equally. Yet if the Palace wishes to have conversation about post-colonial legacy, an NGO-like civil society gathering, not an inter-governmental summit with a communique is the appropriate venue to do good cultural work.
Second, the UK should wind down political investment and encourage others to do the same. Realistically this should involve the UK delaying summits, ending funding and slowly ending Prime Ministerial attendance. Efforts should be invested instead to develop a CANZUK summit as the key summit where with those leaders we engage allies through a non-hijacked platform and secretariat. That is the kind of format, G7-like, an Indian-leader might wish to attend and where work could be achieved. The King’s desire for CHOGM to continue as before is not a good enough reason for the foreign policy damage and time wasting.
Third, the brand Commonwealth should be salvaged by the UK working with India and CANZUK states to host a major investment summit open to all member states. Building something functional, in this new format without a broken secretariat in charge, will do vastly more for our reach and prestige than clinging to something that is essentially just a poorly attended summit that actually harms our reputation and post-colonial relationships by providing the premier venue for the Caribbean reparations campaign.
Needless to say the King’s presence can be integrated into all this new summitry. But this, not His Majesty is the essential. In an important way, the Commonwealth’s early evolution post-war was a way for Attlee and Churchill to engage with Nehru. We need to build totally new summit with this brand around investment that can work again with India, not be hostage to what is an old, broken and counterproductive format. Investment, of course, not manufactured dead end rows are ultimately what the Global South needs too.