Mexico City bureau chief for The New York Times. I lead coverage of Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. Before: The NYT correspondent in Brazil.
Mexico City
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You can reach me securely on Signal here.
Tell me what we should be reporting about Latin America, especially if the public doesn't know about it. I protect sources.
signal.me/#eu/nwND7FADR_4XB3…
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Jack Nicas retweeted
Remarkable that Lula relied on Janones so much again in 2026. This was my story about how he helped Lula win in 2022. reuters.com/world/americas/h…
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Join us on the NYT live blog analyzing the Brazilian election results: nytimes.com/live/2026/10/25/…
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Leaders from across Latin America are congratulating Lula, including right-wing presidents in Chile, Peru and Paraguay.
But there is notable silence so far from the biggest country in the hemisphere. The Trump administration has yet to weigh in, as Flávio Bolsonaro calls to throw out the results.
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An incredible showing by Lula tonight. He proved every pollster and doubter wrong.
And this is an important point: The margin of victory is so big that the controversy over the polling hours becomes far less relevant. He would’ve won if they closed an hour early.
Lula wins, and it wasn’t particularly close — 3.5% or more than 4 million votes.
It’s an epic comeback and we will need time to fully understand it. But one thing is clear — the extension in voting hours was not the difference maker in this race.
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Jack Nicas retweeted
Elections, turns out you still have to let people vote
🇧🇷Brazil runoff on @Kalshi, in one chart.
Bolsonaro traded at 80%+ for two days. In the space of about an hour this afternoon, Lula went from 20% to 70% and Bolsonaro collapsed to 31%, on the heaviest volume of the market's life.
The bottom panel tells the story: low volumes all weekend, then everything at once as results came in.
Track live on @TheTerminal
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All forecast models and predictions markets say the same thing:
Lula was just re-elected as Brazil's president.
Lula's victory would represent a stunning comeback for the leftist president, after so many counted him out, and cement his status as the most storied Latin American statesmen of the century.
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This is indeed terrible optics for the left, and the right is attacking this detail hard.
However, the Brazilian left argues this judge only acted because the chief of the electoral court — who was appointed by Bolsonaro — did not, despite many voters’ problems getting to the polls.
Lula has said those problems stem from right-wing officials systematically taking public buses out of circulation on Election Day.
Meantime, tallying so far shows a very close race.
Yes, it’s correct — the Supreme Court judge who unilaterally ordered some polls to stay open 2 extra hours was previously Lula’s personal lawyer
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Follow the New York Times live reporting on the election results here: nytimes.com/live/2026/10/25/…
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Wow. A top pollster in Brazil is predicting Lula is going to win.
Flavio Bolsonaro is slightly in front with nearly 40% of ballots counted, but Lula is overperforming in many areas and there are lots of leftwing strongholds to go.
Lots of votes still to be counted, however.
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Polls are about to close in Brazil and each side is already claiming fraud.
President Lula suggests there was systematic voter suppression, with right-wing officials restricting buses that would have carried poor voters to the polls.
Meantime, right-wingers are crying foul over a unilateral decision by a Supreme Court justice, who once worked as Lula's campaign lawyer, to extend the polls by two hours because of the chaos.
Brazil's last election pulled the nation into months of fraud claims and turmoil. Buckle up.
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The New York Times is reporting on the results live here: nytimes.com/live/2026/10/25/…
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Jack Nicas retweeted
The Trump administration is pressuring Mexico to expand its cooperation against drug cartels to give Trump a win before the midterm elections w/@jacknicas , @Abihabib, @julianbarnes, @KannoYoungs
nytimes.com/2026/10/24/world…
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Jack Nicas retweeted
👉 "U.S. Pressures Mexico to Deliver a Security Win Ahead of Midterm Elections.
The Trump administration wants a public victory soon, as well as a potential path to U.S. military forces in Mexico."
nytimes.com/2026/10/24/world… @jacknicas @Stevelfisher et al @nytimes
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Jack Nicas retweeted
🔴“EU presiona a México para conseguir una victoria en seguridad antes de las elecciones de medio término del 3 de noviembre”, publica The New York Times.
Según el diario, Washington entregó una propuesta para que personal de seguridad estadounidense acompañe operativos contra los cárteles en territorio mexicano, además de ampliar el intercambio de inteligencia.
El gobierno de México se negó a hacer comentarios, pero The New York Times destaca que la presidenta Claudia Sheinbaum ha rechazado en varias ocasiones estas propuestas por considerar que vulneran la soberanía nacional.
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Jack Nicas retweeted
U.S. memo proposes American security operatives accompany anti-cartel operations inside Mexico.
Trump officials are pushing for a big security win in Mexico ahead of November's elections.
Last year, the Trump admin gave Mexico a list of security targets. Mexican forces have captured or killed most of them.
W/ @jacknicas, @EricSchmittNYT, @Abihabib, @julianbarnes and @KannoYoungs
nytimes.com/2026/10/24/world…
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