Founder of JAM Fund | Co-founder of Tinder | Seed investor in: Curative, Deel, Kalshi, Slash, Speak, Whop… and many others
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This is a photo of the most expensive plaque in the world. It sits on my desk as a quiet reminder.
It cost $2 to make, but the story behind it has cost me more than $2 billion.
Kalshi, the regulated event contract prediction market, was just valued at $11B.
I first invested at a $10M valuation and doubled down in the seed. My conviction was so strong I pushed to lead the Series A and take my ownership above 25%. After three weeks of drafting and negotiating the term sheet with Tarek, we had agreed on every point. It was going to be the largest check I had ever written.
On signing day, they went with Sequoia. I don’t blame them. Alfred Lin and Sequoia have been incredibly helpful to the company, but it still stung. I believed in Kalshi so much I even offered to work there one day a week. I could genuinely see myself building the company.
A few days later, Tarek sent me a handwritten apology note and this plaque. It was his way of saying the friendship mattered more than the deal.
When the Series B came around, he gave me allocation without me asking. I swallowed my pride and took it.
The allocation was a fraction of what I would’ve had leading the A and had to come from JAM Fund, but my personal seed position could still end up as one of the great early stage wins in tech. And I’m grateful for all of it.
Tarek and Luana are relentless generational founders. Once you see that, you can’t unsee it.
That $2 plaque reminds me of something simple: In venture, one great investment pays for every other one many times over.
You just have to keep taking the shots, even when you get pushed a little further back from the rim.
The long game rewards the people who keep shooting.
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Dear Delian,
I hope each round gives you a deeper sense of satisfaction as you work your way through the alphabet. D is special because it’s for Delian.
I hope you’re significantly profitable before you get to J. There may not be a round for my name, but we’ll both be deeply satisfied.
P.S. I bet the E round is closed already…
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I love when my babies unite.
In the very early days of @slashapp Victor was angry at me for investing in @whop and wanted me to sell my position (which I did not- I don’t like to sell). I told @victorcardenas one day we will all be friends and I don’t view them as competitors.
Today that’s official.
Their combined ARR back then was essentially zero. Today, 5 years later, it’s approaching $1B
Could not be more impressed with these young ambitious founders. Y’all may have to adjust 2027 numbers up.
The biggest lie in fintech has been the “all-in-one” platform.
We lied too, but today we’re fixing that.
Introducing Payment Processing on Slash, powered by @whop
You can finally take card payments on invoices through Slash or use our SDK to add checkout to your own product.
Now the money that comes in lives where you already hold, spend, and keep the books, giving you operational simplicity and efficiency so you can focus on the needle moving parts of your business.*
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There’s a lot of talk about OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX being worth more than the combined IPO day value of all 3,365 U.S. tech IPOs from 1980-2025.
But they can have very different destinies.
OpenAI and Anthropic can both become $5-10 trillion companies near term and still ultimately become zeros if they don’t create a real moat. SpaceX has spent decades building one.
Incremental model improvements alone will not be enough for the frontier labs.
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For years Zuckerberg has been beholden to Apple.
Meta drove distribution. Apple controlled the platform. Then Apple changed the rules, creating a ~$10B revenue headwind for Meta in 2022 alone.
Zuckerberg has patiently been building his way out.
Muse is his answer.
When an AI agent uses apps on your behalf, you stop opening apps. The App Store stops being a toll booth.
It’s the ultimate power reversal with Apple and ironically feels like an early App Store moment.
It shouldn’t be surprising that one of the most important founder led companies keeps finding a way.
But the market keeps underestimating @finkd ‘s ability to adapt as the world changes.
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I have no clue how to code.
I had someone build me a cheap templated personal website in 2016 and hadn’t updated it since. It stopped working years ago.
You know how your mom tells you your voicemail is full? For years people have been telling me justinmateen.com doesn’t load.
I didn’t even have the login credentials.
Yesterday I gave META’s Muse one main job… figure it out.
I had it search my email, find some of my key investments, and build a new site around them.
It helped me reset passwords, rebuilt the site, and got it live within 24 hours.
In 2016, I paid $10,000.
In 2026, I paid $20.
And I did the entire thing from my phone.
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I was missing 83 K-1s a few hours ago.
META’s new Muse AI agent is insanely good.
I had it search my email to figure out which ones were actually missing, find the ones that were sitting in my mailbox that I had missed, and forward them to my accountant.
For the rest, it tracked down whoever sent each 2024 K-1, emailed them for the 2025 version, and CC’d my accountant.
It may need my help on a few that require portals, but a task that is normally a nightmare is essentially handling itself this year.
This will be another needle mover for META.
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You still think $META is losing in AI?
Muse Spark 1.3 is rolling out today with frontier performance almost too cheap to meter. This is the biggest jump we've made so far on coding and agentic work. Try it in Muse Code and our API.
Next up 🍉 and Muse Spark open weights releases coming soon.
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I think we’ve got a flying unicorn!
Today marks the start of the Seaglider era - WE FLEW!!
Our 15,000 lb, human-crewed Viceroy Seaglider prototype took flight today. Years of hard work culminating in this moment.
Flight was smooth and exactly as planned.
So proud of this team.
More details to come!
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Dear short shorts,
A wise man who knows Elon well once told me:
1. Never short a pipe dream.
2. Never bet against Elon Musk.
The obvious trade: short $SPCX into the first lockup expiration.
I bet on that pipe dream 9 years ago. I own several million shares and will sell zero.
This week, you may learn both lessons at once.
I’d gladly lock up my shares for 9 more years, and I’m far from alone.
With such a small float, it hasn’t taken much selling pressure to move the stock down.
But obvious trades don’t stay easy for long. If the company keeps executing and far fewer insiders sell than expected, that dynamic can reverse very quickly.
You’re betting against a founder who gets immense pleasure from proving doubters wrong and has a history of turning pipe dreams into reality.
Good luck. You may need it sooner than you think.
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The original 2017 thesis:
This was my 2017 $SPCX thesis. I unsuccessfully pitched it to one of the world’s most legendary hedge fund managers soon after I invested.
Three key lines from it:
“I believe that it can be the most valuable company in the world in 10-15 years which would mean that the return can still be 100x plus.”
“I strongly believe they will be disrupting multiple multi hundred billion dollar industries.”
“I look at this as a hedge against the future and that not having a piece of SpaceX is reckless.”
The thesis sounded like a pipe dream. The investment wasn’t a fit for him, but writing it out strengthened my own conviction enough to double down a few days later via Gigafund, run by @LukeNosek who serves on SpaceX’s board, and @oskoui . More than two dozen friends invested alongside me.
That 10-15 year window is 2027-2032. When I wrote this, no U.S. company had ever reached a $1 trillion valuation. My 100x case implied SpaceX would be worth $2 trillion+.
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This was my 2017 $SPCX thesis. I unsuccessfully pitched it to one of the world’s most legendary hedge fund managers soon after I invested.
Three key lines from it:
“I believe that it can be the most valuable company in the world in 10-15 years which would mean that the return can still be 100x plus.”
“I strongly believe they will be disrupting multiple multi hundred billion dollar industries.”
“I look at this as a hedge against the future and that not having a piece of SpaceX is reckless.”
The thesis sounded like a pipe dream. The investment wasn’t a fit for him, but writing it out strengthened my own conviction enough to double down a few days later via Gigafund, run by @LukeNosek who serves on SpaceX’s board, and @oskoui . More than two dozen friends invested alongside me.
That 10-15 year window is 2027-2032. When I wrote this, no U.S. company had ever reached a $1 trillion valuation. My 100x case implied SpaceX would be worth $2 trillion+.
Dear short shorts,
A wise man who knows Elon well once told me:
1. Never short a pipe dream.
2. Never bet against Elon Musk.
The obvious trade: short $SPCX into the first lockup expiration.
I bet on that pipe dream 9 years ago. I own several million shares and will sell zero.
This week, you may learn both lessons at once.
I’d gladly lock up my shares for 9 more years, and I’m far from alone.
With such a small float, it hasn’t taken much selling pressure to move the stock down.
But obvious trades don’t stay easy for long. If the company keeps executing and far fewer insiders sell than expected, that dynamic can reverse very quickly.
You’re betting against a founder who gets immense pleasure from proving doubters wrong and has a history of turning pipe dreams into reality.
Good luck. You may need it sooner than you think.
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Two trading days after this post, $AMZN is up 19.8%, adding nearly $500B in market cap. Today was its best day since 2012 and the largest one day market cap gain in Amazon’s history.
A few friends, and even my doctor mentioned they bought it after seeing the post. The result is nice. The more interesting part is how I structured the risk.
Most of my short term options returned 10x+, despite the stock moving less than 20%.
For years, I’ve used options to create venture like return profiles in public markets.
Options are leverage, but not all leverage has the same risk profile. I learned the hard way when I blew up my trading account when I was 13. Margin can force you out at the worst possible time. Long options and call spreads let you know the maximum loss upfront while retaining highly convex upside. The tradeoff is that they can expire worthless.
This doesn’t mean you have to play small, in fact my AMZN position has notional exposure equivalent to several million shares, but before entering I assumed the entire premium could go to zero and made sure the potential loss is tolerable.
I typically keep long term exposure through stock and LEAPS, then add shorter term call options when I see a major catalyst.
If the timing moves against me but the thesis remains intact, I roll down the strike, or extend my time frame to give myself a higher chance of hitting the target.
The goal is maximum asymmetry. I typically structure positions with the potential to return 20x to 30x while defining the maximum loss upfront.
Wiping out my trading account in my early teens sucked, but taught me a lesson I will never forget: being right is not enough. You have to size risk so you can survive being wrong on timing, and get back up to try again with an emotionless smile on your face.
The market is being stupid on META and AMZN again. Buy both, and sleep well. Read this for confirmation…
META should not be down 8% after hours. They grew revenue 28% at enormous scale. The headline EPS miss included $3.6B of legal and severance charges. On a normalized basis, EPS was approximately $7.35, well above consensus.
The market keeps treating higher capex as a negative. It has this completely backwards. AI demand is supply constrained, so productive capex is future revenue capacity. META will increase earnings drastically and use it internally, or lease excess supply and make a large arbitrage either short term or long term. In all cases, it’s a massive win. In Amazon’s case it is spending today to unlock years of high margin (40%+) AWS revenue tomorrow. Capex ROI is likely around 30%.
AMZN has a clean setup going into earnings tomorrow:
AWS grew 28% last quarter, its fastest growth in 15 quarters. Amazon has a custom chip business (to bypass NVDA and increase margins) that passed $20B ARR and is growing triple digits. AWS generated nearly 60% of Amazon’s operating income last quarter. This percentage will continue to increase, even if we get an increase in prime membership pricing which happens every 4 years, and has not happened although we are in year 4 and due for an increase if you believe in patterns. Perhaps tomorrow?
There are many data points that support cloud AI demand is accelerating. My bet is AWS reaccelerates sharply to 40%+ the second half of 26 as new capacity comes online. 45–50% in Q4 is very possible if the capacity ramp hits, which means earnings estimates are far too low. AMZN average EPS for 2027 is $10.09, but I would not be surprised if they do $14+ EPS.
AWS is worth more than the current market cap of AMZN.
Full disclosure I have meaningful positions in both companies and believe both META and AMZN will at least double to 1,000+ and $450+ respectively by 2028.
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$AMZN with a phenomenal earnings print, as expected.
AWS is the story: +37% YoY growth vs. +31.3% expected. Fastest growth in 18 quarters.
My 40% AWS growth estimate for 2H 2026 may prove conservative. 50%+ YOY growth in Q4 is now in play.
AWS generated 60% of operating income on just 21% of revenue. It is Amazon’s earnings engine.
Analysts will have to adjust up.
The stock is +7% after hours, 11%+ including today’s move. New all time highs should be imminent as the market digests this acceleration.
The market is being stupid on META and AMZN again. Buy both, and sleep well. Read this for confirmation…
META should not be down 8% after hours. They grew revenue 28% at enormous scale. The headline EPS miss included $3.6B of legal and severance charges. On a normalized basis, EPS was approximately $7.35, well above consensus.
The market keeps treating higher capex as a negative. It has this completely backwards. AI demand is supply constrained, so productive capex is future revenue capacity. META will increase earnings drastically and use it internally, or lease excess supply and make a large arbitrage either short term or long term. In all cases, it’s a massive win. In Amazon’s case it is spending today to unlock years of high margin (40%+) AWS revenue tomorrow. Capex ROI is likely around 30%.
AMZN has a clean setup going into earnings tomorrow:
AWS grew 28% last quarter, its fastest growth in 15 quarters. Amazon has a custom chip business (to bypass NVDA and increase margins) that passed $20B ARR and is growing triple digits. AWS generated nearly 60% of Amazon’s operating income last quarter. This percentage will continue to increase, even if we get an increase in prime membership pricing which happens every 4 years, and has not happened although we are in year 4 and due for an increase if you believe in patterns. Perhaps tomorrow?
There are many data points that support cloud AI demand is accelerating. My bet is AWS reaccelerates sharply to 40%+ the second half of 26 as new capacity comes online. 45–50% in Q4 is very possible if the capacity ramp hits, which means earnings estimates are far too low. AMZN average EPS for 2027 is $10.09, but I would not be surprised if they do $14+ EPS.
AWS is worth more than the current market cap of AMZN.
Full disclosure I have meaningful positions in both companies and believe both META and AMZN will at least double to 1,000+ and $450+ respectively by 2028.
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The market is being stupid on META and AMZN again. Buy both, and sleep well. Read this for confirmation…
META should not be down 8% after hours. They grew revenue 28% at enormous scale. The headline EPS miss included $3.6B of legal and severance charges. On a normalized basis, EPS was approximately $7.35, well above consensus.
The market keeps treating higher capex as a negative. It has this completely backwards. AI demand is supply constrained, so productive capex is future revenue capacity. META will increase earnings drastically and use it internally, or lease excess supply and make a large arbitrage either short term or long term. In all cases, it’s a massive win. In Amazon’s case it is spending today to unlock years of high margin (40%+) AWS revenue tomorrow. Capex ROI is likely around 30%.
AMZN has a clean setup going into earnings tomorrow:
AWS grew 28% last quarter, its fastest growth in 15 quarters. Amazon has a custom chip business (to bypass NVDA and increase margins) that passed $20B ARR and is growing triple digits. AWS generated nearly 60% of Amazon’s operating income last quarter. This percentage will continue to increase, even if we get an increase in prime membership pricing which happens every 4 years, and has not happened although we are in year 4 and due for an increase if you believe in patterns. Perhaps tomorrow?
There are many data points that support cloud AI demand is accelerating. My bet is AWS reaccelerates sharply to 40%+ the second half of 26 as new capacity comes online. 45–50% in Q4 is very possible if the capacity ramp hits, which means earnings estimates are far too low. AMZN average EPS for 2027 is $10.09, but I would not be surprised if they do $14+ EPS.
AWS is worth more than the current market cap of AMZN.
Full disclosure I have meaningful positions in both companies and believe both META and AMZN will at least double to 1,000+ and $450+ respectively by 2028.
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Never shared this publicly, but I’ve been a major shareholder in HUT8 (below the 5% disclosure threshold) since the USBTC days. My original cost basis is $3.56 per share, and I’ve never sold a single share.
@ashergenoot and @mikehomkh are building what I believe will be a 100B+ company and have largely flown under the radar despite being world class operators.
Watching them take the company from a few servers in a Niagara Falls warehouse in 2021 (where I literally had Asher hop on FaceTime video to show me the warehouse actually existed) to $27B in contractual cash flow from the most credit worthy companies in the world has been remarkable. I’m proud to be a part of their journey.
I first met Asher in an unlikely way, through my childhood friend @broukhim, who was his professor, and my brother @tylermateen, who went to USC with him.
Keep an eye on this company. I believe there is a lot more to come.
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“The real risk is not doing anything… FAFO”
Whop Co-Founder & CEO @cultured’s advice to young people:
- Experiment as much as possible
- Don't feel like you're wasting time
"The only real risk is not doing anything."
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As I said yesterday, this team is executing on an insane level. Hard to believe they were rewriting core infrastructure while shipping all these new features.
A wise man once told me it’s like replacing the engine of a car while driving 200 miles per hour.
Today, we're batch shipping 80% of the mobile code we’ve written this past quarter.
First, a breakdown of the other 20%: across 42 releases, our 5-person squad launched the first perpetual futures in the US and trading experiences (explore overhaul, 15-minute charts, live chat, World-Cup hub, inner-circle, etc.) that have led Kalshi to top the App Store rankings for most of the past month.
But all of this was just a fraction of the team’s firepower. At night, we were quietly working on a big project: “V2”, a complete rewrite of our app and the biggest technical leap I’ve seen since I joined the company 6 years ago.
4000 commits and 1 million lines later, the numbers are in and they justify the crazy sprint we just went through:
- CPU usage: 369% peak -> 15% peak
- Memory use: 350M -> 70MB
- Install size: 315MB -> 95MB (for reference: RH @ 934MB, Coinbase @ 310MB)
- External dependencies: 94 -> 11
- Test coverage: 17% -> 100%
When you get the update, Kalshi should immediately feel significantly faster, smoother, sleeker, and more responsive.
For our product velocity, V2 represents a massive shift as well: we now have a single codebase from which the team can push changes to our backend, iOS, and Android builds. The only code that runs on the client is the code that the team wants to run on the client. We have end-to-end type safety, CI with version-tagged deploys, and client<->server integration tests. We’d already gotten in the habit of daily releases, but with our latest tooling, it’s now a breeze.
We’re keeping the team lean, but if you are incredibly talented, work hard, and want to build the next generation financial market,. DM me or apply on our careers website.
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