Building on the frontier of money, health, and work | Macro MAHA AI Bitcoin | Writing weekly soundmoneysoundlife.com | @onrampbitcoin | Last Trade Pod
Philadelphia
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this letter makes a strong case for multi-institution custody.
i agree: giving your keys to a single custodian doesn’t make the risk go away. it moves it somewhere you can’t see or control.
but the alternative proposed here, spreading keys across geographic locations and supply chains, isn’t practical for most people. life is busy. between a family and a full-time job, most people don’t have the time to maintain that setup with the opsec it requires, running key checks across multiple locations for years on end. most don’t want to do it to begin with.
and there’s a tension in it. the more widely you spread your keys, the harder it gets for your family to recover them if something happens to you.
multi-institution custody gives you a setup that tolerates failure, without the burden. @OnrampBitcoin, @BitGo, and @Coincoverglobal each secure a key offline, never on a consumer device, in a 2-of-3 multisig. no one of them can lose, move, or use your bitcoin, and nothing moves without your permission.
it’s the third way, pioneered by @OnrampBitcoin.
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most of the industry thinks multi-institution custody is a niche product. what i see every day is the opposite.
most of the people i talk to have done all sorts of self custody. single sig. multi sig. collaborative custody.
and they’re still choosing multi-institution custody.
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my parent's health insurance premium slated to go up 87% in 2027 (so much for 3% CPI), so we had @claudeai look through the alternatives
my father's first real interaction with Claude, this is what he has to say:
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Bitcoin does not need to follow the same fate as gold, but that's what is looking likely.
Bitcoin moving from self custody into centralized custody.
But there's a third way: multi-institution custody.
The most secure and simple way for most people to manage their bitcoin.
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when the facts change, I change my mind. what do you do?
when i first got into bitcoin, i thought that self-custody was going to be the way that Bitcoin scales
for a while now, i haven't held that belief
the developments in the past months make it even more apparent
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'a few leaked emails'
tell that to the 12,000 people who had their home addresses, phone, email, name leaked
this is just one example of many
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Abandoning self-custody for an ETF or a single custodian is just one exchanging one set of trade offs for another.
Multi-institution custody is elegant because you don't need to be an expert at managing key material and also don't need to rely on a single company. @OnrampBitcoin
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digital price tags being rolled out across big box retailers. same time trump says inflation can deal with the debt very rapidly. 🤔
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The Last Trade with @profstonge. always good to talk with a fellow Philadelphian.
🔶 retiring to a thai island at 25, then losing it all
🔶 why AI is 1997, not 2000
🔶 data centers polling worse than nukes
🔶 why the jobpocalypse isn't here
🔶 bitcoin as the life raft
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what people miss in the AI bubble conversation is that you have to separate openai and anthropic from the technological revolution underneath them.
both can be true. the valuations can blow up in the public markets, and the technology can still be exactly what everyone thinks it is.
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with the recent coinbase news, it's worth reminding people that single points of failure are real.
for the longest time the story has been that coinbase customers get their accounts compromised, but the firm and its infrastructure have been impervious since inception. there are now allegations that suggest otherwise.
whatever comes of them, the lesson doesn't depend on the outcome. you don't want your bitcoin sitting in one place. not a single device in your house, and not a single custodian, where one mistake can mean irreversible loss.
news like this is a reminder of why solutions like multi-institution custody need to exist if bitcoin adoption is going to proliferate.
This blew up more than I expected, since I’ve written about this vaguely before.
I can’t share proof yet since multiple legal processes still unfolding and Coinbase already tried to sue me into silence (unsuccessfully, but I need to be smart about how I fight the 800 pound legal bully.)
Every word I’ve written is true, I have no ulterior motive, nor position long nor short Coinbase or related equity. I’m still heavily long crypto, so if anything, I’d be incentivized to help Coinbase cover this up as many industry leading firms have “for the good of the industry”, but I won’t do that. I also think of coinbase as one of the better companies in the industry and have many friends there. No vendetta here. But when the “best” companies in crypto are funneling billions in customer assets to Lazarus group and lying about it to investors, customers, regulators, and the secret service?
Coinbase has represented to investors and customers (including pensions doing official due diligence) that they were never hacked (at least as of 2 years ago, last I checked). Not only is that radically false, coinbase has shockingly extensive internal documentation of them knowingly “misleading” customers and investors about this, deliberately, over time.
I used the word “misleading”, but I’m being…gentle. @grok what is the legal term for a financial company inducing customers and investors to give them capital on the basis of deliberately false material financial representations?
For coinbase’ legal team. I’m not going to dare you to sue me again, but I’ll say this. It would be in the interest of the industry and the world…but not your executives for us to go through discovery and air all this out. I encourage you to assert this as libel so we can go through discovery and see if a single word of my writing is untruthful.
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if you're anything like me, you spend a lot of time talking to your droid and on zoom calls
gets tiresome after a while, need some real human interaction
if you're in the philly area, join us for some good conversation and drinks sponsored by @OnrampBitcoin
RSVP below
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if issuing debt to pay interest on existing debt sounds like a ponzi to you, you may be onto something... got bitcoin?
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I'm not convinced that we'll see another massive surge of retail interest in bitcoin like there was in 2017 and less so 2021. Bad take?
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ATTN: Listeners of The Last Trade.
I cordially invite you to @OnrampBitcoin "After Hours" on Sept. 30th in Philadelphia.
Please join us a week from today for drinks and good conversation. RSVP below 👇
I heard if enough people attend that @MTanguma will be flying in to join
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bitcoin ETF flows just flipped positive for 2026.
roughly $4.6 billion in since august 19, erasing a year of outflows.
bitcoin is up about 35% over that stretch, now around $85,000.
but here's the most important part: the treasury intervention so far is a drop in the bucket. we are not talking about serious money yet.
now think about what it looks like when the intervention actually has to scale. because the fiscal math says it will.
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"as that bitcoin position grew, it was no longer sustainable for me."
i talk with people about securing bitcoin every day, and inheritance comes up on almost every call.
protecting generational wealth doesn't have to be scary. not for you, your spouse, or your kids.
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What's stopping you from joining us in Philadelphia later this month?
The @OnrampBitcoin "After Hours" continues... last month NYC, this month Philly, next month a city near you??
Please join us for drinks and lively conversation.
RSVP below 👇
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three weeks ago people were calling it over
+25% august, best month since november 2024
$3.5b into US etfs, biggest monthly inflow in over a year
IBIT outperforming SPY since inception despite bear market
NEVER DOOM
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love to see good guy bill come to the rescue.
just trying to help the middle class not lose their jobs to the droids.
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some people are reading the @COLDCARDwallet and @Trezor incidents as a concerted effort to fud self-custody.
i think the simpler read is that wall street is opportunistic. they see a lot of people looking for a solution right now, and they're moving to provide one.
@BlackRock dropping their in-kind subscription minimum from $25 million to $1 million casts a much wider net. far more people now have the means to move real bitcoin into an ETF.
and i understand why people are doing it. these incidents landed in the middle of a bear market when sentiment was already poor. a lot of people have concluded that the sovereignty of self-custody no longer compensates them for the risk. mismanaged keys, digital attacks, physical attacks. the stakes only go up from here.
but i think it's short sighted to hand over real bitcoin for a financial product you can't take delivery of.
there's a third way. you don't have to manage keys, and you don't have to park your bitcoin with an ETF provider or a single custodian.
it's called multi-institution custody. more people should know it exists.
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bitcoin is up 24% in the past week. biggest weekly move in over two years.
we went from stuck in the low $60 to $79k in about four days. the treasury stepping in to buy its own long-dated debt, close to $2b in ETF inflows, and a short squeeze that punished everyone positioned for more of the same.
feels like summer ended a few weeks early.
i'll be in manhattan wednesday. we're hosting a happy hour at @PubKey at 5:30 ET with @MTanguma and @Lnelson_21
one of the better parts of working in this industry is getting to meet people in person who already get it. you spend a lot of time explaining the thesis to people who aren't there yet, and then you walk into a room where everyone understands and the conversation starts three levels deeper.
if you follow the @OnrampBitcoin podcasts or the research and we're on your radar, come say hello.
there's also a virtual roundtable at 4:00 ET the same day if you can't make it in person. we'll get into the treasury dynamics behind the move, the recent security incidents, and where the industry goes from here.
RSVP below for both. happy hour spots are limited, so grab one today.
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"The yields don’t reflect the underlying fundamentals.” - Bessent
GASLIGHTING ACCELERATES
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yesterday morning may have been the start of what a lot of bitcoiners have been anticipating for five years.
the treasury intervening in the long end is not a one-off. it signals much more to come.
the last time this playbook ran was the 1940s, at a debt-to-GDP over 120%, roughly where we sit today. the long end was suppressed at a 2.5% ceiling for more than a decade.
bitcoin was around $64k when we recorded this. it's near $72k now.
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if you're in new york or the surrounding area, please join us for happy hour at @PubKey. wednesday, august 26th, 5:30 eastern.
i'll keep saying it: the best part about working in this industry is getting to spend time with people who share the same passion, a similar worldview, and are equally as poor as you during a bear market.
i get to talk to clients, new and existing, every single day. that's the part i love. what i love even more is getting to meet them in person.
so if you're a bitcoiner and you're local, or you want to make the trip in, come out. RSVP link below.
@MTanguma & @Lnelson_21 will be doing a hot dog eating contest.
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75% of people under 30 now think AI means fewer jobs. two years ago it was 61%.
there's no use being discouraged by AI. in fact, if you're discouraged and you bury your head in the sand, you just end up at an even greater disadvantage.
i still think this is the best time in history to be alive if you want to take control and agency over your own life. you control your destiny.
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over $130 million in bitcoin is gone.
not from an exchange. not from a phishing link. from people who did exactly what every best practice guide told them to do.
the coldcard firmware flaw went public july 31. the devices had been generating seed phrases that weren't actually random. a configuration error sitting in the code since march 2021.
1,596 btc drained from roughly 7,300 addresses. $70 million of it in the first 41 minutes. still ongoing.
two weeks later, trezor disclosed a breach at their shipping partner. 13,689 customers. full names, phone numbers, home addresses.
no coins moved. no devices compromised. but what leaked is a verified list of people who own a hardware wallet and the address it was delivered to.
certik has confirmed 52 physical attacks on crypto holders in the first half of 2026, up from 39 last year.
i've been on calls non-stop for past few weeks. clients, non-clients, people who just want to talk to someone about it.
it's the same question every time. how do i hold this without one mistake, one device, or one company standing between me and my savings?
there's a third way. you don't have to manage self-custody alone, and you don't have to hand your bitcoin to an ETF.
three independent institutions protect your bitcoin. you stay in control. no institution can move or lose your bitcoin.
and there's no seed phrase for you to manage and no trusting a single exchange.
if the last few weeks have you rethinking your setup, my DMs are open or check out @OnrampBitcoin
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for those of you in NYC and metro area, hoping you'll join us next wednesday (8/26) for happy hour with @MTanguma & @Lnelson_21
one of my favorite parts of working in this industry is actually getting to meet people who share the same passion for bitcoin. so if you're local, come out. i'll be putting back a few guinness and a smash burger at @PubKey
RSVP below, and sign up soon since we only have so many spots.
not local? you can still catch the industry update.
we'll be getting into where things go from here: the coldcard vulnerability, the threat landscape more broadly, and what wall street and the financial institutions are actually building for bitcoin.
same link to RSVP below.
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this might be the most important chart to understand, because at the end of the day it's all about incentives.
asset ownership is enormously concentrated at the top. so there is a permanent, structural incentive to keep asset prices climbing.
ask yourself honestly: does anyone in a position of power, holding significant equity and real estate, have any incentive to let these things fall? they do not. and they never will.
that's the whole thing. it doesn't require a conspiracy. it just requires people acting in their own interest, and the people acting in their own interest happen to be the ones setting policy.
this trend shows no signs of reversing, and every incentive points toward it widening.
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Hey Jason, before you complete the in-kind transfer to BlackRock, I really do think that you should take a look at what we've built here at @OnrampBitcoin.
All of our clients have their own Bitcoin wallet segregated on chain (no pooled wallets), secured by three independent institutions (incl. BitGo), none of which can move or lose your bitcoin.
No keys or seeds for you or your family. Inheritance and insurance (thru Lloyd's) is built in.
Our clients choose to work with us for the same burdens and complexities that you cite.
Would love to tell you more about it before you trade one set of tradeoffs for another.
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we all joke about the dice rolls, but part of me is genuinely frustrated that this is the answer a large part of the industry is landing on.
if the best we can offer people is roll your own dice, spin up your own multisig across multiple hardware vendors, and geographically distribute the devices, then nobody should be surprised when most people hand their bitcoin to blackrock instead.
especially now that in-kind subscriptions are opening up at $1 million.
don't be shocked to see further centralization of bitcoin in the coffers of Fink & co
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Fintechs, crypto exchanges, prediction markets all peddling gambling. One of the fastest growing sectors of finance. Hate to see it.
soundmoneysoundlife.com/p/a-…
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we are truly in uncharted territory, and most of wall street has no idea how this plays out.
i caught up with a friend who runs a multifamily office. he said something like "if a recession were to happen," and i stopped him.
"do you genuinely think a recession could be sustained at this point? a real bear market in the S&P, a significant contraction, held for any length of time?"
he paused. said "that's a great question." and then we actually talked about it.
where we landed: the fed and the government will do whatever it takes to prop up the economy and the markets. two down years since 2008. 2018 was barely one. 2022 was a real correction. and here we are printing new all-time highs.
the biggest risk for most people right now might just be not being invested. i know how it feels to keep shoveling money into things that don't seem to make sense anymore.
but ask yourself honestly: which is more likely from here, the melt up intensifies, or it all comes crashing down?
this is the same thing i keep coming back to. asset prices going up is mostly the denominator being devalued into oblivion.
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