Five transformative days of learning directly from 2-Time U.S. Investing Champion Mark Minervini. A proven, time-tested curriculum designed to accelerate your learning, sharpen your skills, and take your trading to the highest level. mtp.minervini.com

I love when the crowd disagrees with me. Jan 29, 2026 was one of those days.

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Q4 and post-midterm seasonality remain overwhelmingly bullish. Historically, the fourth quarter has been the strongest quarter of the year for the S&P 500 in terms of consistency of positive returns. Over roughly the past 80 years, Q4 has produced a positive return about 80% of the time, compared with approximately 60%–64% for the other three quarters. The midterm election cycle adds another powerful seasonal tailwind. Stocks have historically performed particularly well as the uncertainty surrounding midterm elections is removed. Depending on the precise starting period used, recent historical studies put the S&P 500's positive rate during Q4 of midterm years at roughly 83%–85%. Given the backdrop of strong earnings growth and, at least for now, no clear evidence of recession, history argues that the bulls should continue to receive the benefit of the doubt. However, seasonality is a tendency—not a guarantee. Fed tightening, deteriorating breadth, rising interest rates and elevated oil prices represent meaningful counterweights. At a minimum, those conditions increase the probability of volatility and make the current environment considerably less straightforward than the historical averages suggest. Individual stocks have already been correcting beneath the surface of the major indexes. More than 35% of S&P 500 stocks are currently down 20% or more from their 52-week highs, even as the index itself remains relatively close to record territory. In other words, a significant correction has already occurred—it has simply been masked by the strength of a relatively small number of heavily weighted stocks. Interestingly, the 87 Crash is one of the historical analogs worth keeping in mind following a Fed tightening. The comparison should not be interpreted as a prediction of another crash, but the monetary-policy parallel is real: the Fed raised the discount rate from 5.5% to 6.0% on September 4, 1987, while market interest rates were already rising sharply. The seasonal winds are clearly at the market's back. The question is whether tightening financial conditions, weak participation and rising oil become strong enough headwinds to overpower them. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked 125 basis points in just seven months. We looked at prior cases when the 10-year Treasury yield jumped more than 125 basis points in seven months and found 13 prior cases. Only seven of the 13 cases (54%) had positive returns three months later. minervini.com

Our long-term SPY model went on a Buy Signal on May 8, 2025. Recently, however, we've seen a shift in several of the model's underlying components that could lead to a Sell Signal in the near future. Don't get caught on the wrong side of a bear market. You could be buying at exactly the time you should be raising cash. KNOW THE DIFFERENCE. To learn more, call 917-268-1800 and speak with a live person about the model and how Minervini Markets 360 can help you dramatically improve your performance and effectively manage risk.

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At 61, I still TRADE like a champion... AND I TRAIN like a champion🏆 Hitting the weight room while watching football and NASCAR.

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Spot potential breakouts in the best names BEFORE they occur. No more guessing. No more spending hours screening hundreds of stocks. One click does the work for you. Every stock is ranked by its VCP Score, while the dedicated VCP Screen instantly highlights the highest-quality setups - so you can focus your attention on the stocks with the strongest VCP characteristics before they break out. 👇🤑

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RT @markminervini: Our long-term SPY model went on a Buy Signal on May 8, 2025. Recently, however, we've seen a shift in several of the mod…

RT @markminervini: Trade side-by-side with a two-time U.S. Investing Champion using the platform Mark Minervini built for his own trading.…

The indexes are bifurcated and fail to tell the story beneath the surface. A large number of tech names are down 25% and many are down as much 50% or more. There are more than one-third of S&P 500 stocks down 20% or more, with only 34% of NASDAQ stock trading above their 200-day moving average lines. A stealth correction is already well underway. minervini.com

Is the bull market over?