Why Gachagua might NOT fly back to Kenya soon
He is adamant that he will only land at JKIA, if the crowd waiting for him is larger than that welcomed Matiba from London in 1992.
PROBLEM I: Rigathi is expecting Linda Mwananchi 'Principals' to liaise with his DCP to mobilise the crowd.
However, Linda Mwananchi Movement (LMM) supporters are OPPOSED to the party cosying up to Gachagua.
If LMM leaders do not participate in Gachagua's 'homecoming', DCP alone cannot mobilise a very large crowd at the airport & also along Nairobi streets, as happened during Matiba's return from London (where he had gone for treatment after detention).
Therefore, if he doesn't drop his demand about size of welcoming crowd, he might remain in the U.S. for a very long time.
PROBLEM II: Gachagua's American tour had been planned well in advance, making sure that he would visit all known churches run by compatriots & meet all known social-political groupings made up of Kenyans in the U.S.
That part of the tour went perfectly.
But when he extended his stay, problems about finding Kenyan-Americans willing to meet him - so the videos/photos can be posted on his social media pages - started emerging.
This is a very pressing problem, because people back home might start wondering whether there could be a problem somewhere.
His supporters might start asking, 'Why doesn't Rigathi want to come back home?'
PROBLEM III: When he left for the U.S. he told DCP officials that they must be holding daily rallies - or some form of daily public engagement - to keep the public 'fired up' as they waited for him to return, carrying very big news (merger with Linda Mwananchi, with DCP being senior partner).
The rallies by DCP loyalists during first 2 weeks of Gachagua's absence were very well attended.
This could be seen in their social media posts, where the Mobilised Crowd (wearing DCP-branded clothes/caps) was in the minority & generic crowd (wearing un-branded clothes) was a huge majority.
But as the weeks went by, the generic crowd in these DCP public rallies started becoming smaller and smaller, until in the last week, their rallies are almost exclusively attended by their Mobilised Crowd.
Why this matters: The Mobilised Crowd is technically a PAID crowd - provided with free items & most of them also provided with money for 'lunch/transport'.
This means that, if Rigathi Gachagua does not return home very soon, his DCP party would be kaput.
PROBLEM IV: Every politician has enemies.
If he doesn't return home soon, his enemies might start spreading rumours that he has 'been placed in custody by ICE*'.
SUMMARY
Unless people very close to Gachagua convince him to return home - regardless of size of crowd at JKIA - he might stay in USA for a long, long time.
He might even only come back to Kenya after 2027 elections.
*: ICE - United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement.