A new normal of performance on Meta is here.
Northbeam's data across thousands of Meta advertisers: CPMs are up 25% on this time last year, and the Black Friday spike that started in November last year started in September this time.
That matches what I'm seeing on my own accounts. What I'd change if you're spending on Meta into Q4:
1. Re-run your break-even now, not in November. If first-order profit was $20 at last year's CPMs, it's gone at these. Know the number before the spend goes up.
2. Move money from cold prospecting to creator Partnership ads. Same product, creator's name on the ad, and on our accounts they come in cheaper per thousand and convert better. Meta is rewarding them this year.
3. Pull the evergreen offer forward. If the promo spike has moved to September, the brands waiting until Black Friday to put an offer out are paying November prices for October traffic.
4. Don't chase it with budget. Rising CPMs at flat conversion means every extra dollar buys less. Hold spend, fix the creative mix, then scale what's still working.
I'm less sure the cause is the attribution change Northbeam points at. It might just be more brands pushing earlier. Either way the CPM is already climbing.