Eric | Infinity Over 21 Million
@over21m

Bitcoin on-chain analytics (full node) Cryptography & Network Engineering, MA Computer Engineering, BS Run by Eric (@EvrClrx311).

 Headless Server
over21million.com
Joined November 2025
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#Bitcoin supply by the price where each coin last moved on-chain. Red is in profit, blue is underwater. 21% of all BTC last moved within 10% of today’s price.
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Bitcoin is back above $80k. The day before, Nov 3, coins moved on-chain at a net $482M loss. The biggest daily realized loss since Aug 3. Same day, coins held 10+ years barely moved: 3 BTC, the quietest since Mar 19. Losses were realized. The oldest coins sat still.
Infographic from @over21m, Nov 4, 2026. Headline: Moved at a loss yesterday. Back above $80k today. And the oldest coins sat still. Three panels linked by arrows. 1, The flush, Nov 3: a $482M net realized loss in one day, the biggest since Aug 3. In the 7 days to Nov 3, 72% of coins held a week or more that moved went at a loss (most since Aug 19), 43.9k BTC last moved at $103-120k moved at a loss (highest share since Feb 13), and 1+ year holders realized a $293M loss (most since Sep 2023). 2, The flip, last 24 hours: coins held under 6 months realized $184M in profit, the most since Oct 21, much of it in one block. BTC rose from $77.3k at the Nov 3 close to $80.2k (+3.8%), and 33% of all BTC is still held at a loss, the least since Oct 21. 3, The hold: coins held 10+ years moved 3.0 BTC on Nov 3, the least since Mar 19, and 5+ year coins moved 407 BTC in the last 24 hours, the least since Oct 4. Change-adjusted on-chain data to block 974,586. Not a forecast

ALT Infographic from @over21m, Nov 4, 2026. Headline: Moved at a loss yesterday. Back above $80k today. And the oldest coins sat still. Three panels linked by arrows. 1, The flush, Nov 3: a $482M net realized loss in one day, the biggest since Aug 3. In the 7 days to Nov 3, 72% of coins held a week or more that moved went at a loss (most since Aug 19), 43.9k BTC last moved at $103-120k moved at a loss (highest share since Feb 13), and 1+ year holders realized a $293M loss (most since Sep 2023). 2, The flip, last 24 hours: coins held under 6 months realized $184M in profit, the most since Oct 21, much of it in one block. BTC rose from $77.3k at the Nov 3 close to $80.2k (+3.8%), and 33% of all BTC is still held at a loss, the least since Oct 21. 3, The hold: coins held 10+ years moved 3.0 BTC on Nov 3, the least since Mar 19, and 5+ year coins moved 407 BTC in the last 24 hours, the least since Oct 4. Change-adjusted on-chain data to block 974,586. Not a forecast

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How: change-adjusted chain data (change outputs netted out). Net = (price moved at − price last moved at) × BTC, summed per UTC day, compared with every earlier full day. 10+ years = last moved 10.5+ years before. Block 974,586. Not a forecast.
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Last night: the oldest coins on the network were the quietest since March. Today the price did the talking. That's the kind of signal that often cascades into the next leg up.
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339k BTC moved at a loss in the last 7 days, about twice a normal week. 134k moved in profit. Half of the coins that moved at a loss had last moved between $82k and $86k. Bitcoin closed Nov 3 at $77.3k. Coins held a week or more, counted on my own node.
Two bar charts on one price scale, Nov 4, 2026, data through Nov 3. Left: the 557k BTC held a week or more that moved on-chain Oct 28 to Nov 3 (UTC), placed at the price they last moved: 339k BTC moved at a loss in navy (half had last moved at $82-86k), 134k BTC in profit in orange (half at $62-67k) and 85k BTC near break-even in grey. Right: all BTC held at the Nov 3 close, with the $75-89k wall (4.7M BTC, 23% of supply) and the $60-71k wall (2.6M BTC, 13%) bracketed. A white line marks BTC at $77.3k. Coins moving again within the week (6.6M BTC) are not shown.

ALT Two bar charts on one price scale, Nov 4, 2026, data through Nov 3. Left: the 557k BTC held a week or more that moved on-chain Oct 28 to Nov 3 (UTC), placed at the price they last moved: 339k BTC moved at a loss in navy (half had last moved at $82-86k), 134k BTC in profit in orange (half at $62-67k) and 85k BTC near break-even in grey. Right: all BTC held at the Nov 3 close, with the $75-89k wall (4.7M BTC, 23% of supply) and the $60-71k wall (2.6M BTC, 13%) bracketed. A white line marks BTC at $77.3k. Coins moving again within the week (6.6M BTC) are not shown.

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8,505 BTC of the navy is Binance: on Oct 29 one coin moved from a Binance cold wallet to two Binance addresses (Arkham labels). It last moved in July 2025 near $117k. The coins swept from Binance's hot wallet that evening were under 32 hours old, so they aren't in this chart.
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The last 52 weeks, same coins: orange up = moved in profit, navy down = moved at a loss. This week is the outlined bar on the right.
Bar chart of the last 52 weeks with the BTC price above. Each week, orange bars up show BTC held a week or more that moved in profit, navy bars down show BTC that moved at a loss. This week, Oct 28 to Nov 3: 339k BTC at a loss and 134k in profit; a normal week (52-week median) has 165k and 116k.

ALT Bar chart of the last 52 weeks with the BTC price above. Each week, orange bars up show BTC held a week or more that moved in profit, navy bars down show BTC that moved at a loss. This week, Oct 28 to Nov 3: 339k BTC at a loss and 134k in profit; a normal week (52-week median) has 165k and 116k.
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Election day, on-chain: Every holder group from 1 to 10 years moved more bitcoin than on a normal day. 1-2 year coins: 6.3x. The 10+ year coins went the other way: 3.0 BTC, 5% of normal. Quieter than 362 of the last 365 days.
Bar chart: bitcoin moved on election day, Nov 3, 2026 (UTC), by coin age, compared with a normal day of the past year. Coins held 1-2 years moved 8,787 BTC (6.3x normal), 2-3 years 725 BTC (1.1x), 3-5 years 1,706 BTC (2.8x), 5-7 years 772 BTC (3.7x), 7-10 years 422 BTC (2.1x). Coins held 10+ years moved only 3.0 BTC, 5% of a normal day (57 BTC): quieter than 362 of the last 365 days and the least since Mar 19. All coins: 634k BTC moved, the 7th busiest day of the past year. Change-adjusted on-chain data. over21million.com

ALT Bar chart: bitcoin moved on election day, Nov 3, 2026 (UTC), by coin age, compared with a normal day of the past year. Coins held 1-2 years moved 8,787 BTC (6.3x normal), 2-3 years 725 BTC (1.1x), 3-5 years 1,706 BTC (2.8x), 5-7 years 772 BTC (3.7x), 7-10 years 422 BTC (2.1x). Coins held 10+ years moved only 3.0 BTC, 5% of a normal day (57 BTC): quieter than 362 of the last 365 days and the least since Mar 19. All coins: 634k BTC moved, the 7th busiest day of the past year. Change-adjusted on-chain data. over21million.com

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How: change-adjusted chain data (change outputs netted out). Age = time since coins last moved; groups start at 392 days, 752 days, 3.2, 5.2, 7.2 and 10.5 years. Nov 3 = full UTC day vs the median day of the past year. Not a forecast.
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All coins: 634k BTC moved on Nov 3, the 7th busiest day of the past year. Old coins usually wake up in election weeks. The oldest ones didn't.
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On June 30, more than half of all #bitcoin was underwater. Today 59.4% is back above water. Coins at a loss fell from 10.9M to 8.2M BTC. Every unspent coin, straight from my own node.
Chart since 2013 of the share of all bitcoin above water (coins that last moved below the day’s close) versus underwater, as a 30-day average, with the BTC price overlaid on a log scale. Orange shading above the waterline, navy below. A marker on June 30, 2026 shows 54.5% underwater. On Nov 2, 2026, 59.4% of bitcoin is above water and 40.6% (8.16M BTC) is underwater at a $76.7k close.

ALT Chart since 2013 of the share of all bitcoin above water (coins that last moved below the day’s close) versus underwater, as a 30-day average, with the BTC price overlaid on a log scale. Orange shading above the waterline, navy below. A marker on June 30, 2026 shows 54.5% underwater. On Nov 2, 2026, 59.4% of bitcoin is above water and 40.6% (8.16M BTC) is underwater at a $76.7k close.

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Part of what’s still underwater isn’t holders at all. 607k BTC is Coinbase moving its own coins between wallets on Nov 22, 2025: 7.4% of everything underwater. Without that one day, 61% of bitcoin is above water. The Binance hack piles (17,000 BTC, moved Oct 29 near $80k) are only about 0.2%. More on Coinbase this weekend.
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If you've read this far... here is the real alpha by holder: short-term holders are 69% underwater, long-term holders 34%. You'll see over time with these updates how market tops and bottoms align with the dance between these two groups. #onchain #Bitcoin
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US election weeks wake up old bitcoin. Coins held 2+ years moved more than in a normal week in every election week since 2012. 7 for 7. Midterms were the busiest: 4.2×, 1.8×, and 4.7× a normal week. Price showed no pattern (anywhere from –20% to +31%). Going into this midterm, old coins are quiet at 1.0× while younger groups are busy (1.8×–2.7×). The election week starts tomorrow. #Bitcoin #Midterms2026 #OnChain
Chart. Top: bitcoin's price change in each US election week since 2012: 2012 +1%, 2014 +14%, 2016 -1%, 2018 -1%, 2020 +14%, 2022 -20%, 2024 +31%, and -4% in the 7 days before the 2026 midterm. Below: a grid of how many coins moved in each election week compared with a normal week, by how long the coins had sat, from under 1 day to 2 years or more. Coins held 2 years or more moved more than normal in all 7 election weeks: 1.6x, 4.2x, 1.6x, 1.8x, 1.8x, 4.7x and 2.3x, a median of 1.8x. Younger groups were mixed. In the 7 days before this year's election, coins held 2+ years were at 1.0x while every younger group ran 1.8x to 2.7x normal, in the week of the Binance hack.

ALT Chart. Top: bitcoin's price change in each US election week since 2012: 2012 +1%, 2014 +14%, 2016 -1%, 2018 -1%, 2020 +14%, 2022 -20%, 2024 +31%, and -4% in the 7 days before the 2026 midterm. Below: a grid of how many coins moved in each election week compared with a normal week, by how long the coins had sat, from under 1 day to 2 years or more. Coins held 2 years or more moved more than normal in all 7 election weeks: 1.6x, 4.2x, 1.6x, 1.8x, 1.8x, 4.7x and 2.3x, a median of 1.8x. Younger groups were mixed. In the 7 days before this year's election, coins held 2+ years were at 1.0x while every younger group ran 1.8x to 2.7x normal, in the week of the Binance hack.

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They moved at a profit in every election week. Even in FTX week (Nov 2022), when coins younger than 2 years realized ~$4.8B in losses, coins held 2+ years realized +$418M.
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This year’s run-up week (Oct 27–Nov 2) was Binance hack week. Every group under 2 years old moved 1.8×–2.7× normal. Coins held 2+ years: 1.0×. The young money is busy. The old money hasn’t moved yet.
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