Something fun 🚨 I've put together the story of the May 7th elections - English Locals, Holyrood and the Senedd pollcheck.co.uk/elections-20… Take a journey through 2026 - Reform took most seats in England, and won seats in Holyrood and the Senedd for the first time Labour lost 460 seats in London, while both the Greens and Reform gained London Boroughs for the first time Did you know that in 18 councils, the party with the most votes didn't win the most seats? Or that 8 seats were decided by a single vote? Scroll through the story here: pollcheck.co.uk/elections-20…

Tomorrow's council by-elections: Saron (Carmarthenshire): Labour defending, after the death of councillor Peter Cooper. Plaid Cymru and Labour finished half a point apart here in 2022 (39.7% to 39.2%), and Plaid hold the ward's other seat. Neither Reform UK nor the Conservatives stood here in 2022. Plaid won Sir Gaerfyrddin in May's Senedd election on 43.3%. Hertford Kingsmead (East Hertfordshire): Green defending, after the resignation of Vicky Glover-Ward, the council's executive member for planning. The Greens won the ward in 2023 on 36.8%, with the Conservatives on 26.4%. Conservative Rosemary Bolton won the old ward in 2019, and Lib Dem Elif Lewis stood here in 2023. In the 2025 county elections the Greens won the overlapping All Saints division on 49.7%, with Reform UK on 19.9%. Calverley & Farsley (Leeds): Labour defending, after Peter Carlill, executive member for transport, resigned on health grounds. The Conservatives topped the poll here in May on 36.6%, with Labour on 27.3%, Reform UK 16.7% and the Greens 16.3%. Conservative Amanda Carter was a ward councillor from 2018 to 2024, and Labour's Kathryn Penny stood here in May. Restore Britain's Bradley Holmes stood for Reform in Little London & Woodhouse in May. Leeds has been under no overall control since May. Grantham St Wulfram's (South Kesteven): Independent defending, after the resignation of Tim Harrison, the first chairman of Grantham Town Council. The Conservatives won the ward's November 2023 by-election on 33.7% and hold its other seat. Independent Wayne Hasnip, a St Wulfram's town councillor, took 8.0% in Grantham North in the 2025 county elections, where the Conservatives won on 36.0% and Reform UK took 33.1%. Hartlebury (Wychavon): Conservative defending. The Conservatives won here in 2023 on 57.5%. Three candidates are standing: Conservative, Labour and Reform UK. The Greens and Lib Dems, on 36% between them in 2023, are not standing. In the 2025 county elections the Conservatives won the Ombersley division, which contains the ward, on 40.8%, with Reform UK on 39.4%. Restore Britain have one candidate this week: Bradley Holmes in Calverley & Farsley. Full council and ward histories, as well as candidate information at pollcheck.co.uk/by-elections…

The Lib Dems have spent 97% of the time since GE2024 above 10% in the 7 poll average, and stayed above 10% continuously from 12 September 2024 to 9 August 2026. They're now at 9.9%, having started to dip under 10% a few times in the last weeks

Westminster Voting Intention: Labour: 28% (=) Conservative: 23% (-1) Reform UK: 22% (+1) Liberal Democrats: 10% (-1) Greens: 8% (+1) Restore Britain: 5% (=) SNP: 3% (+1) Others: 1% (=) Via: More in Common MOE: ±1.8% Field Work: 16-19 Oct changes w/ 9-12 Oct

The Conservatives has (just) taken second place in the PollCheck 7 poll average, overtaking Reform for the first time since January 2025

Westminster Voting Intention: Labour: 30% (+1) Reform UK: 24% (-1) Conservative: 22% (+3) Greens: 8% (-1) Liberal Democrats: 7% (-1) SNP: 3% (-1) Others: 3% (-1) Plaid Cymru: 1% (=) Via: Deltapoll MOE: ±2.1% Field Work: 16 - 19 Oct changes w/ 11-14 September

Westminster Voting Intention: Labour: 27% (+3) Conservative: 23% (=) Reform UK: 22% (+1) Liberal Democrats: 11% (-1) Greens: 10% (-1) Restore Britain: 3% (+2) SNP: 2% (-1) Plaid Cymru: 1% (=) Others: 1% (-1) Via: YouGov MOE: ±2.0% Field Work: 18-19 Oct changes w/ 11-12 Oct

Looking at Locals 2027 forecasting, biggest unknown currently is how many seats Restore stands in. If Restore are standing in 10% of seats, Reform could win 50 seats less than expected. This rises to 250-500 seats less for Reform if Restore stood everywhere

Results from May for this ward pollcheck.co.uk/councils/bir…

Which party is the main opposition to the Government? Conservative: 35% (+8) Reform UK: 32% (-5) Green: 5% (=) Liberal Democrats: 4% (-1) Another party: 2% (=) SNP: 1% (=) Don't know: 21% (-1) Changes since August 2026 Via: Ipsos N=2,257 Fieldwork: 8-13 October 2026

Reform got 52% in this ward in May 2026, to Conservatives' 24% Conservatives are currently one seat short of a majority on Solihull council

Cabinet and shadow cabinet seats lost in the Electoral Calculus MRP (projected winner, margin in points): With tactical voting: Shabana Mahmood (Birmingham Ladywood): Green +0.4 Chris Philp (Croydon South): Labour +1.9 Victoria Atkins (Louth and Horncastle): Reform +10.4 Rebecca Paul (Reigate): Labour +0.2 Neil O'Brien (Harborough, Oadby and Wigston): Labour +1.9 Rebecca Harris (Castle Point): Reform +8.3 Without tactical voting, also: Alex Burghart (Brentwood and Ongar): Reform +1.0 Harriet Cross (Gordon and Buchan): SNP +3.1 Via: Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now MRP for PLMR. Fieldwork 25 September to 2 October 2026, n=6,699.

Reform UK and Restore Britain vote share by seat, Electoral Calculus MRP: Reform UK: 21% GB / 81 seats Restore Britain: 8% GB / 1 seat Highest Reform UK shares: Rother Valley 46.1% Boston and Skegness 42.8% Clacton 42.7% Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes 41.0% Castle Point 40.2% Highest Restore Britain shares: Great Yarmouth 31.8% (projected winner) Easington 19.1% Blyth and Ashington 16.7% Ashfield 15.7% Rawmarsh and Conisbrough 15.3% Reform 30%+ in 113 seats. Restore 10%+ in 144 seats. Via: Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now MRP for PLMR, with tactical voting. Fieldwork 25 September to 2 October 2026, n=6,699.

Holyrood Voting Intention Constituency: SNP: 36% (-2) Labour: 21% (+2) Reform UK: 15% (-1) Conservative: 12% (=) Liberal Democrats: 10% (-1) Greens: 3% (+1) Regional list: SNP: 30% (+3) Labour: 20% (+4) Reform UK: 17% (=) Conservative: 13% (+1) Liberal Democrats: 10% (+1) Greens: 7% (-7) Via: More in Common N=1,035 Field Work: 9-13 Oct changes w/ Holyrood election, 2026

Scottish Westminster Voting Intention: SNP: 30% (=) Labour: 24% (-11) Reform UK: 16% (+9) Conservative: 13% (=) Liberal Democrats: 8% (-2) Restore Britain: 5% (new) Greens: 3% (-1) Via: More in Common N=1,035 Field Work: 9-13 Oct changes w/ GE 2024

Westminster Voting Intention: Labour: 25% (=) Reform UK: 22% (-1) Conservative: 22% (+2) Greens: 11% (=) Liberal Democrats: 10% (+1) Others: 6% (-1) SNP: 3% (=) Plaid Cymru: 1% (=) Via: Find Out Now MOE: ±2.0% Field Work: 14/10/2026 changes w/ 07-Oct

Today's council by-elections: Higher Kinnerton (Flintshire): Independent defending, after Mike Allport resigned. Independents have won every contest here this century; the seat was uncontested in 2022. Josh Swash, a Higher Kinnerton community councillor, is standing for Flintshire People's Voice, alongside Independent Penny Brett-Roberts, Reform UK, the Conservatives and the Heritage Party. Reform won Flintshire by-elections in Leeswood and Connah's Quay Central this year. The ward is in Alyn and Deeside, held by Labour's Mark Tami. Shepshed (Leicestershire County Council): Reform defending, after county councillor Helen Butler resigned. Reform won the division in May 2025 on 44%, with the Conservatives on 25% and Labour on 17%. Labour's Jane Lennie, a Charnwood councillor for Shepshed West, stood here in 2021 and 2025. Restore Britain are standing with Alex McKenzie. The town is in the Loughborough constituency, held by Labour's Jeevun Sandher. Salisbury Milford (Wiltshire): Liberal Democrats defending, after Alan Bayliss resigned. The Lib Dems gained the division from the Conservatives in 2025 on 44%, with the Conservatives on 24% and Reform 18%. Wiltshire is run by a Lib Dem and Independent coalition; a Conservative or Reform gain would give those two parties half of the council's 98 seats, with the Conservative chair's casting vote. Reform's Simon Lever stood here in 2025. Bradninch (Mid Devon): Liberal Democrats defending, after former council leader Luke Taylor resigned to take up a job in the US. Taylor won the ward with 91% in 2019 and 82% in 2023. The Lib Dem candidate is retired GP Mary Ryan. Most of the ward is in Central Devon, which Conservative Mel Stride held by 61 votes in 2024. Restore Britain are standing in one of the four contests: Shepshed. Full council and ward histories, as well as candidate information at pollcheck.co.uk/by-elections…