NEW: SPECIAL REPORT | How Hezbollah Is Preventing Its Disarmament, Again
Hezbollah supporters blocked roads in Beirut and protested the Lebanese government’s attempts to assert sovereignty on October 16 and 17, after a series of government internal security raids compromised Hezbollah’s weapons smuggling, illicit finance, and de facto statelets within Lebanon.
Lebanese government initiatives to disarm Hezbollah over the past two decades failed because Hezbollah repeatedly succeeded in coercing the government to abandon its course. Hezbollah is a formidable military organization even after recent setbacks. It has ample weaponry, some (albeit decreased) support among Lebanon’s Shia population, and an institutionalized role in the Lebanese government.
Hezbollah views efforts to deter it as an existential threat, and dismantling Hezbollah’s military organization would be akin to the destruction of Hezbollah. Hezbollah is not a political party; it is a military force that created a political party and social apparatus to protect itself.
The United States and international partners must support the LAF’s disarmament efforts and ensure that the Lebanese government outpaces Hezbollah’s reconstruction efforts to wrest popular support from the group.
There are two key areas where the United States can use limited resources to realize outsized gains:
1. Reconstruction Aid: The United States, Lebanon, and international partners must carefully manage and provide reconstruction aid to southern Lebanon through government institutions that Hezbollah has not infiltrated.
2. Military Advisers: A relatively small force of US advisers may be able to have an outsized effect on the capabilities of the Lebanese army.