Building Latino political power through media & innovation. Co-founder @EquisResearch, @Poderistas, LMN. #NMTrue 🌶️
Santa Fe, NM
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Stephanie Valencia retweeted
Tons of headlines about shifts among Latino voters – just like in 2024, but in the opposite direction. These opposing swings affirm @EquisResearch polling showing a meaningful part of the Latino electorate isn't locked into either party and may swing from one election to another.
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Stephanie Valencia retweeted
There will be many ways to analyze tonight's super-shellacking. Here's changes in the Latino vote vs. 2024, from NORC's Civic Health & Elections Project (CHEP). Much more to come.
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Stephanie Valencia retweeted
And Democratic performance in Hispanic-dense precincts in Hidalgo County has not just erased GOP gains from the past two cycles; support exceeds peak levels from 2018 in both the Senate and Governor’s race.
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Gina Hinojosa's victory is the most consequential of the night. Historic. Groundbreaking. Reverberating. All when so many didn't think it was possible.
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Stephanie Valencia retweeted
NEW. @EquisResearch precinct analysis in Miami-Dade County shows support (Sen.and Gov.) in Hispanic-dense pcts has rebounded, landing halfway between the 2024 low point & 2016 peak. Note: 2018 is the high watermark for Latino support for Dems nationally; in FL it’s 2016.
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For anyone who had doubts, Latinos are the new swing voter. No longer the sleeping giant, but the swinging giant.
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Stephanie Valencia retweeted
Latino support for Democrats varied between 57-75% across public national polls in October. Two-way support in the final wave of @EquisResearch polling landed somewhere in the middle: 63% among likely voters.
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Stephanie Valencia retweeted
220,000 more Latinos voted early this year in Florida than 2022. 700,000 more Latinos voted early this year in Texas. Latinos are running statewide in both. @GinaHinojosaTX @JoseJavierJJR @Annette_Taddeo Votemos por los que no pueden. Vamos a ganar! #latinovote
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Stephanie Valencia retweeted
Some final scene-setting as polls close: all signs point toward erosion of Trump/GOP gains among Latino voters. Tonight, @EquisResearch will begin to analyze just how much. Where has support for Democrats returned to 2020/2022 levels? Where might it be closer to the 2018 peak?
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All eyes on the House tonight. 🗳️
With so many competitive races across the country, Latino voters could play a decisive role in shaping the outcome. We'll be watching closely.
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Happy Election-Eve everyone! The longest day of every two years. The voting solstice.
We have a brilliant incredible team at Equis - give these folks a follow for well researched Latino takes on Election Night and beyond.
@EquisResearch
@carlosodio
@mariadfq
@_juancmac
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Stephanie Valencia retweeted
The essential FIU Cuba poll is out. Lots to say on the Cuba front, but for the midterm watchers: no sea-change among Cubans in Miami-Dade. There is some Trump discontent & signs the vote could return to '20 levels, but party ID is stable since '24.
ics.fiu.edu/research/fiu-cub…
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Stephanie Valencia retweeted
Wait! So one of Gina’s top 5 donors is a party committee that helps elect Senators (♥️♥️Thank you♥️) but NOT the committee that actually helps Democratic Governors? (🤨🤨🤨) FML
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Stephanie Valencia retweeted
.@Timodc and @BillKristol on Gina Hinojosa's unexpectedly competitive challenge to Greg Abbott in Texas and why Democrats may be overlooking a historic opportunity to flip the governor's mansion:
"Abbott is struggling. It's winnable. Crazy things happen in wave years."
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Stephanie Valencia retweeted
NEW: Hispanic voters in TX broke for Trump in 2024. In our most recent @equisresearch poll, they've swung all the way back to 2018 levels, landing at 63% for @TeamTalaricoHQ & 64% for @GinaHinojosaTX (in 2-way/undecideds allocated proportionally). tinyurl.com/equistxpoll
NEW in @playbookdc:
September polling from @EquisResearch finds that among likely Latino voters, Texas Dem governor candidate @GinaHinojosaTX leads Greg Abbott 59-35, a sign of the growing strength of her campaign.
Her biggest issue: name ID. 27% of Texas Latinos can't rate Hinojosa.
The new numbers come as Latino Democrats urge the Democratic Governors Association to put money behind Hinojosa.
She currently faces a huge financial disadvantage and is being outspent by Abbott roughly 10-to-1.
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Stephanie Valencia retweeted
PINNED: As Kentucky Gov @AndyBeshearKY and @DemGovs continue facing pressure to invest at least $10 million in @GinaHinojosaTX’s Texas gubernatorial campaign, at least 100 people are wearing these “Invest in Gina” pins tonight at the @CHCI gala.
Beshear/DGA has so far resisted doing so, arguing investments in other state Gov races are better investments. Latino leaders argue even a little $$ might help her chances against @GregAbbott_TX.
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Stephanie Valencia retweeted
My friend Victor from La Mega understands the difference between showing up for your neighbors and just showing up for yourself. That's the choice in this race.
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Stephanie Valencia retweeted
23 years ago, I made the most difficult decision of my life. It’s how I learned my own strength, and now I fight for every Texas family.
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Stephanie Valencia retweeted
Second big question is if a few mega donors decide to make Gina Hinojosa competitive financially. Texas is a no limit state so a single billionaire could cut a check for $50 million and completely change the dynamic. Does a summer of close polling get someone off the sidelines?
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