ALT Five-panel bar chart titled ‘Across Hennepin County, Republican-leaning precincts backed Krenz, not Folk.’ The county’s 394 precincts are sorted into five equal groups by how many voters took a Republican ballot in the governor’s primary. Republican ballots were 3.9%, 9.2%, 20.2%, 28.2% and 40.1% of each group’s vote; single precincts ran from 1.1% to 65.4%. All of Minneapolis falls in the two least Republican groups. Across those groups, Frazier’s share falls from 52.87% to 19.67% and Folk’s stays flat at 22.05% to 21.85%. Krenz’s rises from 7.87% to 31.75% and Pelikan’s from 3.25% to 12.15%. Nguyen’s stays flat at 13.96% to 14.58%.

ALT Bar chart titled ‘Folk would need every Krenz and Pelikan voter, and more, to pass Frazier.’ One bar shows the 100,222 County Attorney primary votes for the three candidates who didn’t advance: Krenz 46,150, Pelikan 17,648 and Nguyen 36,424. Krenz and Pelikan, the two whose support rose with Republican ballots, together have 63,798, or 63.7%. A line marks the 66,030 votes, or 65.9%, Folk would need to pass Frazier if the same voters returned; it falls past Krenz and Pelikan, inside Nguyen’s share. Even if Folk won all 63,798 Krenz and Pelikan voters, he would still need 2,232 of Nguyen’s. This is simple math, not a prediction.