Now: learning Norwegian, Spanish, and how to be quasi-retired. Then: Smallworld GIS, Team Canada underwater hockey, Tetlockian superforecaster.
Vancouver, British Columbia
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I think at this point, the right thing for the world to do is to start the process of disconnecting from the USA. It sucks, and it is a long process - but until/unless US congress acts to reduce executive power, it's not obvious that this is just a 4 year long problem.
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As of 10:35 AM PST today, this is still happening:
"Sometimes it thought itself human, on the thin crust of a spinning globe of molten rock, which for mailing purposes is divided into ZIP codes."
1.) Go to America.gov
2.) type “hello”
3.) type “play Minecraft”
4.) watch the agent’s reality implode
5.) ????
6.) PROFIT!
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No. Once AI can manage to simulate with high accuracy the result of simply rolling a pair of backgammon dice - knowing all of the initial conditions as perfectly as it possibly can - then we can have that conversation. Until then, no.
The logical endpoint of AI development in the social sciences is psychohistory from Foundation.
A predictive world model which can simulate with high accurate future events and counterfactuals
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Tim Minto retweeted
Look, if you can't laugh at the president desperately promising angry farmers that he'll magically replace massive quantities of fertilizer from our nextdoor military ally with small imaginary quantities from a tinpot authoritarian thousands of miles away, then you simply have no sense of humor.
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My 70+% forecast: in 3 years, all three of these will be true:
1) 100%: Humans exist,
2) 90%: AI experts will say the cause is regulation and/or voluntary research slowdown,
3) 80-90%: Lots of evidence will exist to strongly contest #2, but not enough to conclusively refute it.
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Hello from Greenland! (But not for the reason quoted below). Some arctic foxes fighting over a salmon near Lakseelv - Salmon River.
Denmark sends conscripts to Greenland as Arctic tensions grow ctvnews.ca/world/article/den…
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As a non-American, I fully support this Trump administration initiative. Let's see some aggressive enforcement! No exceptions!
DHS is imposing a new $100K fee on H-1B petitions, which would be *in addition to* the existing $100K fee for H-1B petitions, which Trump illegally imposed and DHS illegally limited only to petitions for applicants abroad. But a court has already blocked the first fee...
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Tim Minto retweeted
I think at this point, the right thing for the world to do is to start the process of disconnecting from the USA. It sucks, and it is a long process - but until/unless US congress acts to reduce executive power, it's not obvious that this is just a 4 year long problem.
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Hello @AmazonHelp, your brand and website is being used (either via automatic redirection or spoofing) in a campaign of fraudulent X ads. Attached are 2 examples of 50+ that I have received this week.
- nitter.siddz.com/nurulurfaaa/status/208…
- nitter.siddz.com/harryashiet/status/208…
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If the Toronto Mayor's priority is protecting taxi jobs frrom Waymo, why not order every taxi to have both a driver and a navigator? Instantly doubles taxi employment! cbc.ca/news/world/waymo-driv…
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Tim Minto retweeted
THE GEOGRAPHY OF THE ODYSSEY
Christopher Nolan's new film, The Odyssey, is based on Homer's great work of fiction. For over 2,500 years, scholars have tried to match Odysseus' journey to real Mediterranean islands and coastlines.
Here's where they think Odysseus went:
1/n
ALT Source: https://www.sciencephoto.com/media/1243088/view
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Seven fraudulent ads in the last 5 minutes. About 50 of them in the last week. You're doing great, Twitter!
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Do the rules of soccer permit holding on to your opponent's arm, or is this just something that happens a lot without being called?
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Listening to the Aussie fans chant "Donald Trump took a header, JCPOA was better" really reminds you what soccer is all about.
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Tim Minto retweeted
Ice hockey world championship: Norway wins historic bronze medal after beating Canada 3-2 in overtime 🇳🇴🏒
#hockeyworlds
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This is, without exaggeration, the most peak-performance real-time (i.e. high-stakes situation, not a highlight reel) 90 seconds of one's craft that I can ever recall seeing. Anyone have any similar, or better, examples?
Shrey spelling 32 words in 90 seconds to win the Spelling Bee is the new greatest athletic accomplishment of 2026. I don’t even know how he said the letters that fast. Got a “Holy Mackerel” out of
@minakimes
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I think it's funny that @matt_levine wrote a column about block trades using the hypothetical company XYZ, when there is an actual company named Block Inc. with an actual ticker of XYZ.
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Keeping score:
1) Directionally correct, but I'm wrong on the specifics. Admin used the words "total victory" and "all military objectives achieved", but no mention of "capitulation".
2) Yes: Trump's NBC interview said Iran's current leaders are "much more reasonable".
(1/x)
What happens tonight?
1) US claims total capitulation,
2) due to (claimed) regime change being someone they can negotiate with,
3) Israel keeps bombing, US not so much,
4) Iran continues to get $$$ from Hormuz, and to deny transit as it sees fit,
5) US won't talk about #4.
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3) Mostly right, but I can't claim 100%. Israel definitely kept bombing, but US may have stopped completely (contested by Iran, but not solid evidence for it I think). I implied they would still be striking somewhere, for some pretense.
4) Yes.
(2/3)
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