Chief Election Analyst for Sky News / Host of Afternoon Agenda 2pm weekdays

Canberra
Tom Connell retweeted
Replying to @tomwconnell
99% correct, Fitzroy won the Reserves Grand Final in 1989 wearing "Fitzroy Red". Also 1982 U/19s, back when all 3 were played on grand final day.
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'Fitzroy' red to be worn on grand final day, for the first ever time. The Fitzroy Gorillas wore maroon in 1944 in their last grand final.
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Last 11 matches involving the @brisbanelions the winning team has scored an average of 130.45 points. Insanely high-scoring for the modern game.
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Tom Connell retweeted
It's 30 years today since Fitzroy's final roar. How incredible are the scenes as the fans storm onto the ground in celebration after the siren? ❤️💙💛 #TheFrontBar | Wednesday | 8.30pm AEST 📺
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Hey @auspost i have this wild idea, bear with me. When you are checking if people are home to deliver a parcel, instead of mental telepathy, you could get your employees to ring the doorbell?
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Tom Connell retweeted
Not if a club whose player is bid on has a top 5 pick. Eg Carlton have pick 3 but Walker is bid on at 1 or 2 than they won't get the compo, thus meaning the team who bid won't have their natural second round pick pushed a spot further back by Carlton receiving a compo pick
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Still waiting on postal / absent votes, and 2cp distribution, in SA Election. Seats left to call are Heysen, Mackillop, Morphett, Narungga. 1/4
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Mackillop will be ON vs Lib. From scrutineer info the count in Naracoorte EVC would projected ON ahead before postal etc 51.7%. But booth is not entirely representative and postals to come. Still too close to call. 3/4
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Mackillop will be won by One Nation. Lead 400 and scrutineer info has absent vote breaking for them, and postals only slightly for libs. One Nation up to 3 seats.
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Heysen and Morphett and Labor vs Liberal. Libs tracking slightly ahead in both. But projected margins both under 1% and too much vote to be certain about either. 2/4
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Action in Morphett with 1000 postals counted. Libs lead by 58 on those postals. Overall lead is 33 votes. If that trend continues Lib lead over Labor will be about 130 after postals, but absent votes to come usually favour Labor. Very very close, Libs in slightly better position.
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Narungga Primary ON 38.58% vs Lib 21.84%. But scrutineer info has flow of Ind Ellis (17.6%) going 80% Lib and Labor (15%) going 70% lib. That would make projected 2cp close to 50/50, but with postal and absent to come. Too close to call but Libs can still win from 21.84% primary
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Action in Narungga. 2cp up to date and about 1/3 of postals in. ON lead is 173 votes. Current rate of postals that lead would be cut to about 50 votes with absent votes to go. This one shaping as an absolute cliffhanger, but would always rather be in front at this stage.
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Highest ever test score without a century is 531. 20 to go! #ausv
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Goldstein - i am told about half of the partial recount done. Wilson lead down from 260 to 244. Two big prepoll and some other vote (postal etc) to go. Staus quo remains - only major 'wrong pile' or 'data entry' errors from here would change things.
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The first major ‘data entry error’ will be revealed tomorrow in Goldstein, closing the margin by 50 votes. Will mean about 180 lead to Wilson. Recount quite advanced now (70% plus) so would still take something unusual to get close.
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Recount done. Margin 175. Daniel has conceded. Wilson elected. Close thread.
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Numbers out now on NSW senate - at final exclusion One Nation 635k to ALP 618k for the 6th spot in NSW. Similarly close contest to WA.
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Bradfield - back to dead level! 56,135 votes each. About half of the regular booths have been counted. Other vote is being counted but not clear how much. Another week to go. No clear trend but interesting to note Kapterian lead got out to 14 votes early on in recount.
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NSW senate - button has been pushed. Bit of an upset with 6th spot going to One Nation - details next live on @SkyNewsAust
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