Interested in history, demography, politics, economics, psychology. Writing on Substack (below), in The Critic and Unherd.

London, UK
New article: Assessing our AI future. I look at the three broad scenarios people put forward for the next few years: ‘AI as a normal technology’, AI doom, and AI utopia, discuss the likelihood of each, and how I think we should respond. willsolfiac.com/p/assessing-…
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Anthropic's 2026 Public Benefit Report, released a few days ago, is interesting reading. First the foreword. This is something I brought up in my recent article on this. Language like this is, unsurprisingly, the same thing as Dario Amodei writes in his various essays. But the people in charge of Anthropic haven't chosen a life of Shakespeare and Tuesdays in the kitchen with family. They've chosen to dedicate themselves to changing the world, i.e. to lean in to thymos. That's why I find rhetoric like this unconvincing. Their revealed preference is not for a world like this at all. Do they see it as bravely sacrificing the possibilities for people like them to be satisfied for those of the average person?
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To clarify - Anthropic project AI making human labour redundant. Therefore there's no way to humans to change the world any more.
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Next, the things they say are necessary for the 'positive' future they outline: the technical problems of AI safety are solved, and AI safety is a universal practice backstopped by law. There doesn't seem any reason to believe we've solved the problems of AI safety. We still can't tell what's going on in AI models. We continue to see them going rogue. And with RSI we are likely to lose even more insight into what's going on. But even IF we solve them - say claude specifically is safe, then we come to point 2. This means we cannot allow open source models, meaning the world's most valuable resource, intelligence, is gatekept by a few corporations. Is this a positive future?
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One of my favourite jokes I've read on twitter is: "Turks are the only people who get angry if you tell them they're the indigenous people of their country"
La proportion d’ascendance génétique issue des populations de l’époque romaine d'Orient (ou anatolien), des peuples turciques médiévaux et des populations perses chez les Turcs de Turquie aujourd'hui, par province.
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More and more I'm thinking 'positive' future AI scenarios herald the victory of the wordcel over the shape rotator. Shape rotator jobs (and even non jobs like mathematical appreciation and hobby programming) become redundant, while wordcel activities are less affected because they were always more about human relationships anyway (salesman, influencer, politician). And shape rotator jobs that persist become more wordcelly anyway as they are now more simply talking to models.
Genuinely interesting question though whether people in the humanities are under threat from AI. Of course, AI can write a humanities paper. But people would have to value this more than they would human papers so much that the latter becomes valueless. Due to humanities being more subjective, and in many cases political, I'm skeptical this would happen. I think AI is likely to transform things so much that it's hard to predict how anything turns out, but in a world where we're still around, I think humanities will change less than more mathematical subjects.
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Genuinely interesting question though whether people in the humanities are under threat from AI. Of course, AI can write a humanities paper. But people would have to value this more than they would human papers so much that the latter becomes valueless. Due to humanities being more subjective, and in many cases political, I'm skeptical this would happen. I think AI is likely to transform things so much that it's hard to predict how anything turns out, but in a world where we're still around, I think humanities will change less than more mathematical subjects.
openai's internal model still has not produced a single result in gender studies
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Assuming Pangram keeps working, I would think that a strong, verifiable taboo on humanities papers being written by AI develops.
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Perhaps in an Amodei-style AI utopia / dystopia, all hard science is now automated but there's a massive expansion in humanities as intellectually hungry people gravitate to doing something where humans are still the top dogs.
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Will Solfiac retweeted
One of the companies I am an investor in, Asterix Health, has been nominated for "Recruitment of Staffing Solutions Provider of the year". Please vote for them! It takes about five seconds and they are a great bunch. generalpracticeawards.com/vo…
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A sensible country would have something like an immigration safety board, which would employ anthropologists to determine which immigrant groups were likely to be the greatest risk to the native population, and restrict their entry. In this case it's not complicated. The graph reflects the same realities that a female tourist would experience if she travelled to say, Egypt vs Vietnam. There's a huge amount of anthropological work around into these cultural differences regarding sex and gender roles, and what this means for sexual offences. People have spent a lot of time over the last few years talking about 'rape culture' etc. It's obvious to anyone not ideologically blinkered that the most extreme examples of rape culture exist in the places at the top of this chart, and as we all agree that rape culture is a bad thing, perhaps we should avoid importing any more of it.
Ultimately the people that read this stuff need the editorial but the data doesn’t lie
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E.g. from the first article, the idea of locking away women for their safety.
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And the idea that it's expected for real men to 'throw themselves' on unprotected women.
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A way to think about why it's rational to stop reading when you detect something's written by AI: Why do you spend your precious time reading content written by a person? Because you think that person personally has some insight to offer over and above whatever the standard stuff is on a topic. I.e., in the pre-AI world, why you might read an essay by a specific entrepreneur rather than the 'entrepreneurship' wikipedia page. If it's AI content, then you know you're not getting any special insight. You're just getting whatever the AI models know about a topic, which you could just as easily aquire yourself. So why bother engaging in the illusion that you're reading someone's unique insight, and wasting your time?
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