if you want to understand how AI will progress, study how bots changed chess and poker. Compare and contrast. the best humans can’t beat top bots at chess. Never. Poker is different. Bots beat pros over large samples, but a human can still sit down and win a session. That's because poker is a game of incomplete information and chess isn't. a bot can play close to game theory optimal poker, but the hidden cards and variance give humans a fighting chance, especially in the short run. Life is poker, not chess. It’s a game of incomplete information and luck. No amount of computing power eliminates that reality. This means the best bot won't be the one that wins every hand. It'll be the one with an edge that compounds over thousands of decisions. In the short run, anyone can win. In the long run, the edge gets paid. In chess, ‘human-plus-bot’ teams once beat bots alone, until the engines got too strong and the humans just got in the way. In a world full of hidden information, that partnership lasts longer. SO, in the future, the winner won't be human or bot. It'll be a human who knows what the bot can't see, when to use judgment and intervene, and when to shut up and let it play.

AI Glasses make someone into a “Chess Grandmaster”. Te reality is nothing will go untouched by AI, for better or worse. Awareness is your friend.

Preparing for an Informatics Europe session where I plan to address both the past publishing patterns and the AI transformation of research. Not an easy topic, since we are all figuring out how to cope with the exponential. Will probably frame it as questions for audience.

Bitcoin's supply used to grow 50%+ a year. Today it's 0.82% 📉 Gold's: ~1.5-2% Bitcoin crossed BELOW gold in May 2024, and it's never coming back. - - - The schedule is already written: ~0.4% after 2028, ~0.2% after 2032, ~0.1% after 2036. When gold's price rises, miners dig more. When Bitcoin's price rises, supply doesn't budge. Hardest money ever made, people 🧱

WHAT ??

Have to give the EU regulators credit where it’s due for making all Apple products use USB-C

You can be globally compassionate as a person and still feel that your society should have careful borders and that local cultures matter, and should be preserved if they're clearly doing well. These actually aren't in contradiction.

"AI and Communications of the ACM," by Editor-in-Chief @JamesLarus, offers some promises and words of advice to authors who submit articles written with AI. bit.ly/4k0VxN1

The tragedy of it all is that rioting against inflation and cost of living by destroying stores just increases inflation and cost of living. Fiscal issues lead to social issues, which lead to more fiscal issues and more social issues.

I think model capabilities shouldn’t be judged on how hard maths look to a human regardless of how much an expert that person is. I think they should be judged in how “automatable” and brute-forceable said math problems are. A human taking 10 years to do something means nothing. A human may need ten years or more to run the US census while an IBM machine with perforated cards takes minutes.

Should you do a PhD? What would it give you? Here are some advantages to consider: 1. It’s a loophole in the universe where you’re encouraged to dedicate your time to something just because it’s interesting, even if it is totally niche and no one will ever make money out of it. 2. You’ll be surrounded by smart people. 3. It’s a gym for the brain - you’ll develop critical thinking and planning skills (extra important in the age of brain rot) 4. You might get to travel and see the world. … 786. Some jobs require having a PhD.

So apparently it exists now: rstation.ai but they are not yet orchestrated as in Sakana's Agentic Scientist (pub.sakana.ai/agentic-scient…). Interesting times.

For 25 years people speculated the NSA hid a backdoor in the NIST curve seeds. Turns out the P-256 seed was candidate #1842 from a random number generator started at 01:52:34 UTC on August 16, 1997. Claude figured it out in under half an hour. The scariest thing AI has done to ECDSA so far is make it look less suspicious.

Europe’s best climate and where to find them. All great options: but South of Italy is probably the most underrated

Realmente as causas do aumento do preço da habitação em Portugal são um mistério

NO! Tesla and @elonmusk DID NOT invent the flying car. The flying car is a Polish 🇵🇱 invention. In 2020, a 41-year-old driver in Rąbień hit a roundabout at high speed, used the embankment as a launch ramp, flew roughly 64 metres, snapped a tree in half, and landed in a church building. No prototype. No venture capital. No Silicon Valley presentation. Just a Suzuki Swift, a Polish roundabout, and absolute faith in aerodynamics. Polish engineering did it.

Reality is more amazing than AI.

The ideal outcome for science isn't a couple of labs using proprietary models and millions of dollars to crack trophy problems, it's to have millions of AI-aided human scientists who follow their curiosity and become way more ambitious

We have new Speakersssssss!

We might still have the monopoly of free will and awareness. But we are no longer the most intelligent minds in our known universe. Let that sink in.