WTF is going on in Brazil?
Turns out, the country I knew for the masterpieces Rio and Rio 2 is also South America's largest economy (~50% of the continent's GDP).
And unfortunately, we got a Brazilian debt crisis before a Rio 3.
The good news is that, unlike classic debt crises, most of Brazil's debt is denominated in their local currency. So it's a slow burn.
But the bad news is that this is still leading to some alarming political outcomes — the Bolsonaro family is rapidly gaining ground against the incumbent president (Lula) and his party.
For context, Jair Bolsonaro, the previous Brazilian president, is exiled in Florida right now for a botched coup attempt after he lost the last election.
Despite this, markets rose with hopes that the Bolsonaros can turn the ship around.
But investors in Brazil are mistaken for the same reasons they were wrong in America.
No individual candidate can limit spending in either country.
Because much like the US, the vast majority of Brazil's government spending is Constitutionally-mandated:
Jair Bolsonaro's wife, Michelle: elected Senator tonight.
Jair Bolsonaro's son, Carlos: elected Senator.
Jair Bolsonaro's other son, Renan: elected Congressman.
Jair Bolsonaro's other son, Flavio, currently a Senator: ahead of Lula, headed toward a run-off for President.
Jair Bolsonaro's other son, Eduardo: leaving Congress, in the US, facing arrest and imprisonment if he returns.
Jair Bolsonaro: imprisoned at home for 28 years.