Paramount's financing of this Warner Bros deal is going to require a huge return, very quickly.
- $9.5b senior debt (7yr term)
- $30b senior debt (up to 40yr)
- $12.4b 2L debt (10yr)
- $47b equity
New debt, all-in, looks like it'll cost +$4b/year in interest.
That's around 30% of combined EBITDA of the two entities.
Paramount has an incentive in the docs to get their BB rating back up, by bringing leverage down over the next 2-3 years.
Or, in other words, bring EBITDA up - FAST.
None of the new capital goes towards new IP.
Here's the issue:
- Servicing this debt means monetizing the IP.
- Monetizing the IP means degrading their library at a faster rate
- There's no simple line item for impairment on this type of asset. The brands just get fatigued over time. A
The strategy will be to exploit everything in their library (e.g. Harry Potter, GoT, SpongeBob, etc.) up to the hilt.
They'll repay it, I don't think that's the issue. But that IP library will be hollowed out completely before the end of this decade.
Levered IP library with a lot of debt, with assets that monetize in a lumpy manner and that need constant re-investment to keep alive. Sick.