When and Why Common Share Buybacks Make Sense: There's been some heated discussion regarding this topic over the past week so I created a tool that explores the nuance and math. It seems that many have decided to take sides on the issue but the nuance is in the middle and we can use math to demonstrate it. I hope this app brings a more fruitful discussion and exploration of what happens when common ATM leaves excess shares when demand fades and when and where it can make sense to buy back some of that supply while remaining aligned to Strategy's long horizon. Year-end bitcoin per share for Strategy went from 91,097 sats in 2023 to 194,986 in 2025. The latest diluted figure is lower, about 187,400, because more shares were issued. Those are one number a year. They do not show the weeks in between, when common that had already been sold was still in the market. In many of those weeks, buying back a limited amount of that common raised backing per share more than spending the same dollars on more bitcoin. In other weeks, buying bitcoin was still the better use. Both can be true. Those year-end numbers are BPS. BPS counts bitcoin and shares only. It rises whenever shares are retired, even if the cash came out of the reserve, or new preferred shares were issued to pay for them. The stock can stay flat while BPS rises, because BPS does not see the cash that left or the claim that was added. This page puts the year-end figures next to the weeks, shows when a buyback beats buying bitcoin, and puts BPS next to a number that does count the cash and the preferred claims. $BTC $ASST $MSTR $SATA $STRC cc. @GrainofSaltSF @BritishHodl @ZynxBTC @betirement bpssupply.grok.me

Nuance! Crazy thought. 🟠 $BTC $ASST $MSTR $STRC $SATA

Bitcoin’s power-law Z-score: −0.97 (Nov 1). Similar historical readings were followed by a median 1-year return of +132%. The 543 observations overlap and span different market eras. Treat this as historical context, not a forecast. bitcoin:native

🚨 CAN MSTR PUMP OUR BAGS..?!?!?! - w/ @CJ_Bitcoin - MSTR's Next Phase..? - How Will MSTR Deal With The Next Bear Market..? - How Much Pref's Can MSTR Sell Right Now..? Let's discuss:

This week Strive continues to show how they are steering this ship. Last week I noted that they were sitting on extra cash on top of their usual 18 Months. The warrants were effectively a large atm to the common but using those funds to bring the SATS IPO to life put 3.8x the amount of Bitcoin on the balance sheet and re amplified the common. Mnavs really compressed over the last month, Many Call options closed out but I'm not seeing large put increases or shorts flooding in. I continue to be happy with what I'm seeing from the team. They've showed a restrained ambition. Bitcoin's regime isn't helping spot but is providing opportunity and from the data 52 fwd returns signal much higher prices. $BTC $ASST $SATA $MSTR $STRC cc. @GrainofSaltSF @BritishHodl @Jamieminer

There are times to be aggressive, and times to show restraint. But we will always Strive to keep moving forward. This is a marathon, and we will continue to do what we believe is best for delivering long-term, sustainable value for our shareholders.

Thanks for taking the time to look further into Strategy's strategy with this move. 👍🏻 In their open positions I see many sales and engineering hires that seem to align with this path. $BTC $MSTR $ASST $STRC $SATA

LIVE: BFM296 w/ @Strive CRO @punterjeff⚡️ "Bitcoin will eat the world's financial risk" We discuss: 🔸Bitcoin vs AI for credit capital 🔸Who can't own BTC and why? 🔸Bitcoin's risk weighting vs 24/7/365 liquidity 🔸Bitcoin as a global shock absorber 🔸Who buys $SATA & $SATS?

This post is looking at Bitcoin accumulation through different viewpoints. 1. Amplification definition 2. How it creates value 3. 2nd order effect on valuation 4. BPS 5. mNAV states; ATM and Spot 6. @Strategy early ₿ and Q4 ‘24 1. Digital Credit amplifies the common stock, not Bitcoin, after subtracting out the preferred claims. Preferred notional/BTC FMV = Amplification @Strive formula. 2. Amplification increases the amount of Bitcoin a company holds by arbitraging the long term CAGR of Bitcoin vs. Digital Credit dividend payment. That difference in CAGR amplifies the common stock after subtracting the preferred claims first. 3. With HIGH Amplification, a lower residual value flows back to the common shareholder and also requires a HIGHER Net mNAV for a given stock price. Net mNAV (Strategy uses Net BPS which is functionally the same but just writes mNAV in their preso. This metric was introduced on July 23rd, 2026) subtracts out the preferred claims first. So for 50% amplification, the common stock has a RESIDUAL claim on 50% of the Bitcoin. This is counterintuitive to many people on X. 4. BPS is an “ownership” metric for the common stock holder. A better term is “claim” because there are no redemption rights for any of the equities. 5. Net mNAV functions in two different “states”. A. ATM mNAV - how accretive is that tranche, a snapshot of the acquisition of Bitcoin, that is then a weighted average into existing BPS. This metric is inferred from the 8K and does not change. BPS never floats with spot price. Big bubbles (proportional to the size of the ATM) in the below Strategy chart vs. the line that they are on (Spot mNAV). These are also color coded to the ATM mNAV for acquisition of BTC. Dark green is high mNAV (higher accretion), red is low mNAV (smaller accretion). Counterintuitively it’s better to buy ₿ as it is running high and fast since MSTR was at high mNAV. Many people assume buying ₿ during bear markets, the ₿ price is low would be better, but not if funded with common stock at low mNAV. Now with cash balances this is possible in the future. B. Spot Net mNAVs float with stock market cap and Bitcoin FMV. C. Hence $1B Prefs/$2B Bitcoin FMV= 50% Amplification. With 60% amplification, common gets 40% of the residual Bitcoin. 6. There are two really interesting time periods for Strategy A. The initial acquisition of Bitcoin for Strategy was highly accretive because it was purchased with existing cash, there were no senior claims and the market cap was very low. Also the term mNAV hadn’t been discovered. B. Q4 2024 the price of Bitcoin moved very fast in time frame and magnitude. On Oct 30, 2024 Strategy launched the $21B Plan. Strategy had three realizations; they could increase their Bitcoin holdings by 50%, they knew the era of converts were over and they were going launch Preferreds. Last convert Feb 21, 2025 First pref STRK on Feb 5, 2025. Strategy has a 6 year history of Bitcoin accumulation through different types of capital structures and its effect on the common stock. That’s for article.

My “grievance” with Bitcoiners from pre 2017 era is they speak to new Bitcoiners as if they’ll experience the same thing they did. They won’t (I’d love to be wrong). When you get into Bitcoin matters. We often get told by people that have 50x’d their networth that if we don’t spend our sats we’re not contributing to the network. Or if we partake in non bitcoin assets we’re “short Bitcoin”. I’ve been in bitcoin since November 2021. After 5 years I’m literally sideways even. I’ve smashed bought two tops after getting caught up in the fomo from listening to my favourite Bitcoin educators. What is my incentive to spend Bitcoin that I haven’t gained any appreciation on? This is why “Bitcoin only” for someone’s portfolio doesn’t make financial sense. (I’m speaking from experience dude, if you know what I mean, lol) This is why our class of bitcoiners are attracted to bitcoin treasury companies. This is by our class and the future class will be interested in digital credit. I encourage all early Bitcoiners to have caution as to how they speak about portfolio construction to friends and on podcasts. What you say has enormous influence. I know from experience as I relied heavily on their advice. I would have been much better off if I had spread my bets instead of going all in on bitcoin. If I just had played fiat games I would have had Bitcoin gains.

Go Deeper @ElonMusk 🧡

Seeing a bit of confusion out there around BTC Yield (growing BTC per share) being classified as a short-term KPI. The reason we classify it as a short-term KPI is because it is a metric we can influence through the course of our normal operations over relatively short timeframes. What we are effectively saying is that BTC Yield is the metric front and center as we run the business and capital markets each day. Management teams need to focus on the metrics directly within their control to guide daily decision-making. For us, that means driving towards positive BTC Yield. We believe the combination of growing BTC per share and maintaining high amplification while Bitcoin is near historically inexpensive levels creates the ideal setup to drive long-term outperformance of our common stock relative to Bitcoin. Amplification acts as a rate-limiting function on common equity issuance. If you issue too much common equity, amplification can decline quickly. As Bitcoin moves higher and amplification naturally declines, maintaining our target means leaning more heavily on products and capital formation strategies that increase amplification (preferred) rather than decreasing it (common). Amplification targets can and should adjust throughout market cycles, but issuing too much common equity during an early bull market move could erode amplification too quickly and take away some of the gain potentials as it is harder to move it back up to range as Bitcoin continues moving higher. Every action must be taken in balance, keeping you in position, with a focus on capturing and continuously growing value for shareholders over the long run. Our incentives are built around driving that outperformance. Management’s long-term incentives come in the form of common equity, so we are focused on taking the actions today that we believe will create the greatest long-term outcome. This is why alignment of incentives to common equity holders is so critical. “Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome.” - Charlie Munger Every day brings new decisions. Define your strategy, set your targets, and execute relentlessly toward extraordinary outcomes.

Strive agrees with this. This is why our long term objective is exclusively tied to stock returns. This drives the vast majority of management incentives. Bitcoin per share is simply a short-term KPI we believe tracks doing the thing that produces those long-term returns.

Thanks Eric , very interesting to follow with your node data.

Having my Agent pull the fillings and deck + watching the webinar feels like a super power. nitter.siddz.com/i/broadcasts/2rJPmjgVP…

MSTR Earnings Agent nitter.siddz.com/i/broadcasts/2rJPmjgVP…

Will be on Bitcoin Treasuries at 4pm eastern. Looking forward to another great conversation.

Quick conversation before Earnings. A deeper conversation of how the market values the stack and leverage. nitter.siddz.com/i/broadcasts/2vyNqMyqk…

ASST & MSTR Alpha in the Data nitter.siddz.com/i/broadcasts/2vyNqMyqk…