Sr Director of Federal Budget Policy, @amprog/@CAPAction. Before: OMB46, Transition46, @SenateBudget (Murray & Sanders). CBO & OMB’s biggest fan! Personal acct.

Bookmark this for every time they say “we have no problem with legal immigration, we’re just trying to stop illegal immigration.”
PROMISES MADE, PROMISES KEPT. @NYTimes: 'The Trump administration cut legal immigration in half early this year with policies blocking visas for immigrants from nearly half the globe.'
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I’ve been doing a bunch of thinking, and I’ve come around to the idea that we should raise some taxes
US fiscal policy is incredibly irresponsible.
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The biggest difficulty for Trump and Republicans here is that the first three steps for improving people’s living conditions all involve undoing what they’ve done. 1) Undo the health care and food assistance cuts 2) End tariffs 3) Go back in time and never start the Iran war
👀 Rs inside Trump’s political operation are warning that pro-Trump super PACs can only help so much Instead, GOP candidates need to focus on laying out 3-5 key future deliverables to “improve people’s personal economic situation” and “lower [their] cost of living.” If not, “there’s a good chance they’re going to lose.” That’s shocked Rs in tough races, who feel like they’re getting diverging messaging. It’s a big shift from even how House GOP leadership has approached the campaign trail in the final stretch. politico.com/news/2026/10/19…
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Bobby Kogan retweeted
Shot: Chaser:
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Bobby Kogan retweeted
It is a basic principle of American democracy that the government can’t selectively target individuals simply because of their political beliefs or what they say. But that’s exactly what the Trump Administration is doing to Congresswoman Ilhan Omar of Minnesota. To understand why this is so appalling, it’s important to know the facts. Congresswoman Omar came to this country with her father when she was 12 years old. Five years later, her father became a naturalized citizen. If Ilhan had been 18 at the time, she would have had to apply for citizenship separately. But because she was 17, she became a naturalized citizen automatically. Congresswoman Omar went on to graduate from college, work as a community organizer, become the first Somali-American legislator elected to public office in the U.S., and win a seat in Congress. There, she has been one of the Trump Administration’s fiercest critics, which has led the president to repeatedly single her out as someone who he believes does not belong in this country. Now the Administration is actively trying to deport Congresswoman Omar, seemingly based solely on the unsubstantiated theory that she was actually 18 when her father was naturalized, and therefore is not a citizen. Federal agents have raided her home, confiscated personal records, and seized her phone — all to try and uncover a nonexistent smoking gun from 20 years ago that will somehow make their case. Think about that. The full weight of the federal government is being brought down on a law-abiding elected official because she has dared to criticize the president. And it’s not the first time this has happened. Under President Trump, the Justice Department has repeatedly gone after those he considers his political enemies — from the Attorney General of New York, to the former head of the FBI, to members of the Federal Reserve. In those cases, the prosecutions either stalled or were dismissed for having no basis in law, and the same is likely to happen in this case. But not before Congresswoman Omar’s life has been turned upside down, her legal bills have piled up, and she’s been forced to spend time fighting unsubstantiated charges instead of serving the people of Minnesota. The fact that any president, or any administration, is willing to engage in such transparent efforts to intimidate someone should outrage all Americans, regardless of how they feel about Congresswoman Omar’s political views. Because if this becomes the new normal, there’s no reason to believe it will stop with her — or that future presidents, in either party, won’t do the same.
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Last year, Trump & 98% of elected GOP enacted the biggest Medicaid cuts in history, bigger even than Reagan's cuts. By 2034, 7.5 million people will lose their Medicaid because of it. Clinics are already closing & hospitals are already cutting services, citing BBB as a reason.
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The reason I have two different sets of numbers here is that CBO has an interaction line, and you can't break out how much of it is Medicaid/CHIP versus other things. But we know in actuality it's mostly Medicaid/CHIP, so the cut is much closer to 16% than 18%.
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Really really clear from this graph 1) when Trump imposed tariffs, and 2) when Trump started the Iran war.
Headline PPI is not "wholesale" prices. PPI Final Demand is a final price index like CPI from the business side & broader than consumers. But PPI *does* have intermediate prices. Stage 4 prices are goods & services about to be sold as final. They grew 8% YY, a non-pandemic record
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Still can't believe that Trump and Republicans enacted a law that made the poor poorer while making the rich richer. Taken as a whole, the Big Beautiful Bill was the biggest transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich in a single law in all of US history.
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Bobby Kogan retweeted
HAYES: You really seem like you don't like the guy. OSSSOFF: I don't like bigotry. I don't like the Klan. I don't like neo-nazis. I don't like sitting members of congress who allow neo-nazi propaganda to be produced from their house. I don't accept that a sitting member of congress should appoint people to leadership roles in his political organization, with documented ties to the Ku klux Klan. It's not just the folks around Mike Collins, it's Mike Collins himself.
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Cannot overstate how anathema it is to everything we are supposed to stand for that the president is trying to denaturalize his political enemy. It’s unamerican, it’s dictatorial, and it deserves to be rebuked as vehemently as possible.
BREAKING WSJ: The Trump admin's investigation into Rep. Ilhan Omar is aimed at building a case to strip her of her U.S. citizenship and ultimately deport her, according to U.S. officials and other people familiar with the probe. wsj.com/politics/policy/ilha…
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It’s really weird how voters don’t like it when you pass legislation to take food away from starving kids and kick people off their health care while simultaneously giving huge tax breaks to the richest people on the planet
In private, top Republicans believe the House is a lost cause politi.co/3VHVXxX
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Doctor says to play some StarCraft II
After 30 hours of playing a strategy video game (StarCraft II), adults showed a ~3-year drop in EEG-estimated brain age
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Americans’ inflation-adjusted pay is back down to where it was when Trump took office. Legislatively, he kicked millions off their health insurance and took food assistance away from millions, including over a million kids. He’s laser focused on building a ballroom for himself.
Replying to @bencasselman
Average hourly earnings, adjusted for inflation, fell 0.5 percent in September and are now back to where they were in January, 2025. That means that Americans, on average, have experienced zero real wage growth since Trump returned to office.
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Bobby Kogan retweeted
Billions of dollars’ worth of contracts predicting oil would fall and the S&P 500 would rise were placed about 15 minutes before Trump announced a U-turn on Iran in a post on Truth Social. CFTC staff began to investigate-- then were told to lay off. bloomberg.com/news/features/…
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This is super sloppy graph?? CBO's projection from January 2025, right before Trump took office, was that gross debt would be $39.1 trillion now. There were TONS of one-time costs still playing out in 2023. Why would you extrapolate this way when there are actual projections?
Deeply misleading. National debt is running around $3 trillion lower than it would have been if Biden's debt path had continued.
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Impoverished children have no recourse if their food assistance gets stolen because the richest man on earth used his power and influence to kill a bill that would have helped them.
Criminals have been exploiting outdated EBT card technology to steal SNAP benefits from unsuspecting low-income families. Since December 2024, the victims of this theft have had no recourse & federal action to prevent it has largely stalled — for a deeply infuriating reason:
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Bobby Kogan retweeted
Reporter: You said Russia and Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire but both sides say they have not. Trump: They agree. You know why? Because I said you agree. That’s why. They agreed because I said they agreed.
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Bobby Kogan retweeted
NEW and BREAKING: The Justice Department is investigating five TV networks for possible antitrust violations after they suspended the White House TV pool last month. via @nytimes
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