My views are a personal "special arrangement sanctioned by history" Postwar Germany antitrust saga balancecraft.substack.com/ab… Work @econliberties

USA
Servile men will insinuate "with a plausible affectation of wisdom and concern, How prudent it is to please the powerful—How dangerous to provoke them." 1768
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“Just as a private equity firm buys out a corporation and strips it for parts, the consultant class installs friendly operatives, charges fees, raids the party’s long-term assets, and gives strategic advice that ultimately serves itself over the long-term health of the party.”
The New Republic reports that 73% of Democratic campaign donations go to the consultants and vendors and just 13% to ads.
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Laurel retweeted
Hello Elon this is your investor relations manager speaking. I am advising you today to please keep posting this shit
Replying to @Yuchenj_UW
I think we’re going to see a lot of stranded compute in partially complete data centers
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Laurel retweeted
Once again I am telling you that LLMs are running the standard-issue Gartner hype cycle.
Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok just published a gloomy report on AI. imo, other signals I’m watching don’t really support these. > Slok says mainstream firms don’t need the latest model and won’t pay for it, and with no bottom-line gain they now treat token spending as a cost center that weighs on margins. > He says, total factor productivity growth sits near 0%, and Slok expects AI’s macro effect to stay very limited while agentic AI and token spending remain confined to a small slice of firms. > Argues cheaper, commoditized models may not close the gap, because per him, business value depends on judgment, accountability, trust and unwritten rules that AI doesn’t understand.
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Technology + Inflation.
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The best Beth Wilkinson could muster for NYT about why her client flouted a court order to not jump gun on consummating allegedly illegal merger while litigation was pending was to point to... the merger agreement. Last I checked private contracts don't trump court orders
Spoke to @noamscheiber about Beth Wilkinson. My point: establishment Dems will likely praise her for defending ABC against Trump's FCC, and stay silent on the rest of the career. You can’t be the party of working people while in lockstep with the lawyers who enable the oligarchy.
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Laurel retweeted
Spoke to @noamscheiber about Beth Wilkinson. My point: establishment Dems will likely praise her for defending ABC against Trump's FCC, and stay silent on the rest of the career. You can’t be the party of working people while in lockstep with the lawyers who enable the oligarchy.
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A brief update on the critical vulnerabilities in PHP:  We have not yet validated exploitation in the wild and we have no evidence of successful wide scale exploitation. There are currently several exploit PoCs publicly circulating, many of which appear to be "vibe-coded" and are incapable of remote code execution. We have validated some PoCs, however, that are capable of RCE against default deployments of mod_php but not PHP-FPM. Nonetheless, exploitation may have already begun in a limited fashion and the threat is viable and very serious. Defenders should: ​1) Patch & Restart by upgrading to PHP 8.5.12, 8.4.27, 8.3.36, or 8.2.35 and restarting web services ​2) Layer Temporary Safeguards at the network edge (WAF/proxy rules) and server configuration level if immediate patching requires a maintenance window ​3) Protect Credentials by monitoring for abnormal session traffic and rotating keys and passwords on compromised internet-facing PHP systems exposed prior to patching 🔗 We are continually updating our Cloud Security blog post on this topic with real-world guidance and actionable defense strategies as we learn more. Please keep monitoring these posts for updates as you prioritize your patching efforts: cloud.google.com/blog/produc…  🔗 Technical details from Wiz: wiz.io/blog/php2shell-php-rc… 🔗 Details of the exposure from VirusTotal: blog.virustotal.com/2026/10/…
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A tenacious group of tenants is fighting a teardown plan in one of Manhattan's most desirable neighborhoods that could spell the end of public housing as we know it? I wrote for @newrepublic about their struggle and the fate of government-run homes in the US.
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Laurel retweeted
Hey Sam & Dean, guy here who has been concerned about AI safety re: cyber & bio, but is not some RSI, Dyson-sphere-brained doomer weirdo: You guys had a hand in this by doing what you're still doing in these tweets, i.e. crapping up "AI safety" with sci-fi nonsense.
It wasn't organic. Big money went to some of the most unscrupulous, low IQ people in tech advocacy to deflect concerns over cyber and CBRN risk in favor of empty abstractions (ludditism vs "permissionless innovation") and other red-herrings ("but AI didn't replace radiologists!")
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The biggest change one could make to Democratic foreign policy is for the next President to refuse to hire out of the endless number of corporate/finance consulting shops and mandate that all foreign policy officials commit to not going to one of those shops after serving.
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Laurel retweeted
If there is infinite demand for compute how is this going to be possible
Replying to @Yuchenj_UW
I think we’re going to see a lot of stranded compute in partially complete data centers
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Laurel retweeted
Saw this last week. Comprehensive documentary on the richest and one of the most powerful people in the world. You should know a little more about him than you do.
Knowledge is power. 💫 In MUSK, Oscar-winning director Alex Gibney delivers a jaw-dropping, informative, and yet endlessly entertaining "examination of the world's richest megalomaniac" (@IndieWire). Now playing in NY and LA. Nationwide Friday! #MuskMovie bit.ly/4ArO3ZA
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very recently i recall…
Remember when these people pretended to be “free speech absolutists”
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There's only one reason he's doing this: to stop Alex Gibney's new documentary "Musk" from being streamed on HBO Max in January. @alexgibneyfilm predicted it and it's happening. Go see the film NOW. Before you can't.
Elon Musk has reportedly invested around $1 billion into Skydance (the merged Warner Bros/Paramount company). (Source: semafor.com/article/10/22/20…)
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“I’m melting…”
Elon Musk's X account has devolved into a 24/7 exercise in dumbfuckery. This is what truly desperate shitposting looks like. He's losing, he knows it — and the meltdown has been spectacular.
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Laurel retweeted
+1. Calacanis showed who he really is to me 10+ yrs ago. She said they would investigate him. Reasonable considering Musk himself hinted the same in Oct 2024 - before countless investigations were shut down and he became even more controversial. Your documentary was outstanding.
Just like his overlord, @elonmusk , calacanis is losing his shit. calacanis is the guy who said, anticipating the firing of 80% of twitter employees, “sharpen up your blades, boys!” Kara just said that Dems would investigate Elon. It’s called reporting.
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Since most economics in the political realm is slop, of course it can be replaced with AI. And it’s shouldbe.
I mostly agree with you @Claudia_Sahm. I expect colleagues to continue to have research assistants even if only for mentorship than because they need the help. Companies to have junior staff not because they need their current work but to train them for future roles.
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Another insane milestone in SF. I went down a rabbit hole on this one. The previous owner passed away in January at age 96. Her property was assessed at $919,446, and she paid just $11,599 annually in property taxes. The new owner will pay an estimated $336,762 a year.
San Francisco home sale $10M over asking price
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When a leading economist creates a "running read on the health of the economy" and doesn't include anything on consumer debt, which is currently eating up 50 cents of every dollar in wage gains that workers get, it gives you a pretty clear sense of how we ended up in this mess
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