Newsletter wheresyoured.at - Better Offline Podcast - betteroffline.com - CEO at EZPR.com
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Today's premium newsletter is about how the JOBS act and endless growth-driven greed is killing venture capital, with terrible returns and inflated valuations leading to a logjam of unsellable companies.
The AI bubble has made things much, much worse.
wheresyoured.at/premium-vent…
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COREWEAVE BONDS TUMBLE AS CREDIT PRESSURE BUILDS
CoreWeave ($CRWV ) dollar-denominated bonds are selling off sharply:
October 2031 bonds: Down 2.3 cents to 79.46 cents on the dollar
June 2030 bonds: Down 2.2 cents to 83.10 cents on the dollar
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what's the DEAL with pro RATA RIGHTS
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Ed Zitron retweeted
This chart shows the key risk to the AI trade, and it's missing from the latest revenue announcements.
The AI boom is fundamentally driven by a top 1% of companies that drive 80% of spend. Within that top 1%, 80% are venture-backed.
That's all fine if the AI trade works out, and if, as some prominent investors say, everyone wins.
But if it doesn't work out, then we have a cascading effect of large customers simultaneously pulling back their AI spend.
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This now makes the Amazon SPV to offload its chips even stranger. It’s clearly trying to get investors to help out with its glut of GPUs
reuters.com/business/retail-…
Business Insider confirms it: Amazon has warehouses of GPUs that can’t be installed, and is buying them so far in advance that a supply chain team said they “didn’t have a clear forecasted path” to installing them.
businessinsider.com/amazon-2…
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Hater Report
Ed Zitron retweeted
The shadow glut represents silicon waiting for electricity, while rising rental rates for older chips reflect spot market demand competing for the limited, power-connected hardware already online.
Not sure why this is not well understood
Sincere question: If there is a shadow glut of GPUs, why are rental rates on older chips still rising?
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Welp
$CRWV - HSBC WARNS COREWEAVE IS SPENDING BILLIONS TO DESTROY VALUE
HSBC maintains its Reduce rating on CoreWeave, with a $39 price target implying 36% downside.
The bank estimates CoreWeave's 2026–2030 return on invested capital at 8.9%, below its borrowing costs.
With over $51 billion in debt and slowing AI revenue growth, HSBC warns further investment could destroy shareholder value.
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Ed Zitron retweeted
For those who know their history, a wave of busted + delayed/cancelled IPOs was the topping signal in early/mid 2000
It's a sign that capital is becoming scarce
And when capital becomes scarce, your boom goes bust
*DATA CENTER FIRM ELICE PLUNGES AS MUCH AS 32% IN KOREA DEBUT
Really hot IPO market for neoclouds. Nscale’s up next!
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This means that the increased price of RAM and consumer electronics was a result of an artificial "supply chain crisis" created by Jensen Huang pushing NVIDIA's customers to take early delivery of GPUs. Jensen Huang is responsible for making life worse for everyone.
NVIDIA appears to be channel stuffing, forcing Amazon and other customers to take early delivery of GPUs. It's hard to take the argument that these things are "scarce" when you don't even have anywhere to plug them into...unless NVIDIA is saying you NEED to take them now.
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NVIDIA appears to be channel stuffing, forcing Amazon and other customers to take early delivery of GPUs. It's hard to take the argument that these things are "scarce" when you don't even have anywhere to plug them into...unless NVIDIA is saying you NEED to take them now.
Business Insider confirms it: Amazon has warehouses of GPUs that can’t be installed, and is buying them so far in advance that a supply chain team said they “didn’t have a clear forecasted path” to installing them.
businessinsider.com/amazon-2…
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Business Insider confirms it: Amazon has warehouses of GPUs that can’t be installed, and is buying them so far in advance that a supply chain team said they “didn’t have a clear forecasted path” to installing them.
businessinsider.com/amazon-2…
Free newsletter: I estimate that ~50% of AI chip sales - $200bn to $300bn+ - are sitting in warehouses, with NVIDIA selling hundreds of billions of GPUs years in advance. Data centers take way longer to build than hyperscalers are leading us to believe.
wheresyoured.at/wherere-all-…
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Hey remember when NVIDIA announced a completely imaginary $500 billion “ai infrastructure deal,” announced on CNBC with the heads of multiple private equity funds, everyone wrote about it how it was real and then absolutely nothing happened?
Per Bloomberg, Goldman, Blackstone and Apollo have been having "slow progress" on AI data center debt deals, but Jensen Huang decided to rush out the $500 billion announcement, which has "no obvious provenance."
So I guess it was all BS then?
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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