Biotech investor/trader - Host of Breaking Biotech piped.video/channel/UCRAYTVP… breakingbiomatt@gmail.com

San Diego, CA
The ignorance in this post is beyond the pale. I'm not even a mass spec expert, but to say that because a phosphate group adds the same mass no matter the position, means that MS cannot identify it is ridiculous. In bottom up proteomics, trypsin digests the full-length protein into often predictable size peptides before going through LC-MS/MS. p217 Tau for instance is found in a well-characterized 10 amino acid peptide after trypsin digestion, which allows distinguishing of it and other phospho-sites on Tau because of the predictable mass for that specific peptide. $NAUT does potentially have an advantage when it comes to understanding multiple phospho-sites on the same protein, but would be better to see the data in an independent lab. Here's 2 open access resources of the many many many peer reviewed pubs that are out there: nature.com/articles/s43587-0… link.springer.com/article/10…
I believe $NAUT is worth several billion today, because it's on a path to enable us to cure deadly diseases like Alzheimer's with a single prompt by 2027-2028. The breakthrough is not better protein measurement. It is reading the state machine of human biology. In Nautilus' tau paper, they found that phosphorylation is not random. pT181 makes pT217 about 8x more likely to appear on the same intact tau molecule. That matters because adding PO4 groups changes tau's charge distribution, which changes its conformation, which changes how tau binds microtubules. Microtubules are the rails neurons use to move mitochondria, vesicles and proteins over enormous distances. Tau helps stabilize those rails. Change tau's molecular configuration enough and: tau detaches → microtubules destabilize → transport breaks → neurons degenerate Alzheimer's may therefore not be "too much phosphorylated tau." It may be a progression through specific molecular states: tau A → pT181 → pT217 → additional PTMs → pathological proteoform And until now we largely could not read that combinatorial layer cleanly. Mass spectrometry measures mass and charge extremely well, but two intact tau molecules can have the same mass while carrying the same phosphate at different positions. Same atoms. Same mass. Very different biological behavior. Fragmentation can help, but reconstructing the exact PTM configuration of millions of intact molecules becomes difficult. Nautilus instead repeatedly interrogates the same intact protein with different probes. Its tau assay currently reads isoform plus 7 phosphorylation sites, creating hundreds of potential molecular states, while reporting about 5.5% end to end CV versus about 25% cited by management as an industry benchmark. And here is where this gets insane. Biology does not appear to occupy every theoretically possible state. Of 768 tau proteoforms their assay could resolve, they observed only 130 across all samples, and far fewer within individual biological systems. That means the real state space may be highly constrained. Now collect enough longitudinal data: initial proteomic state + treatment → final proteomic state Do that across millions of patients and interventions and AI stops being merely descriptive. It becomes predictive. Given molecular state X, what intervention moves the system toward healthy state Y? That is effectively a biological key:lock search problem. For tau alone, that could mean finding the intervention that prevents the proteoform trajectory that causes tau to abandon and damage the neuronal microtubule system. But tau is just one vertical assay. Add alpha synuclein. Amyloid beta. Cancer proteins. Immune proteins. Metabolic proteins. Thousands more. Eventually: genome + proteoform state + treatment history → full body molecular state transition model A genuine digital twin of human biology. The endgame is not simply detecting disease earlier. It is asking: given this person's current molecular state, what intervention moves them back toward the healthy state? And having an AI trained on billions of measured biological transitions produce the answer. That is why I think $NAUT is building something much larger than a proteomics machine. It is building the data layer required for AI to learn how to steer human biology.
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I'm buying $IVA here, also starting a small $NAUT short. Earnings next week should reality-check $NAUT's commercial progress, trading over 4X cash with zero meaningful adoption of their platform
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This is great for American biotech.
The regs are out: Prohibited tech includes pharmaceutical compounds, including a number of important modalities as examples
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$MRNA I feel like selling's gonna continue into next week. What's the next catalyst for V940? -Nov 6 earnings -FDA discussion about adjuvant Melanoma approval (feels like this is big uncertainty) -Renal cell carcinoma data in H1-27
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With the Melanoma data leaked, there's two other presentations left for $MRNA at ESMO: Oct 25: V940 + FOLFIRINOX following surgical resection in pancreatic cancer (early P1 data) Oct 26: Trial design for V940 in NSCLC
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$MRK $MRNA data amazing HR .58. So $MRK $MRNA data leaked to this website which is now down. HR is .58. oncology-central.com/interpa…
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The endless pumping of this company feels so astroturfed
$NAUT is the best stock of all time and when the markets allows you are about to find out with a force you have seen few shares take off. It truly is a masterpiece of science and engineering.
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San Diego biotech Iambic $IAM going public today. Several partnerships with big players. Touting its AI model as their secret to doing better drug development. Still early stage, but lead program IAM1363 should be interesting readout - testing basket of HER2-altered cancers. Expecting to start registrational trial in 2027...so data within the next year or so?
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$IAM up 30% in a deep red tape biotech tape, why not!
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Free Shkreli
MARTIN SHKRELI VIOLATED LIFETIME PHARMA INDUSTRY BAN, FTC AND STATES SAY IN CONTEMPT CLAIM - CNBC
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Wow, painful seeing this for the shorts $MRNA
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Certainly easy to pile on now but most people never publicize their biotech calls or post trades as transparently $MRNA added to nasdaq 100 on Friday btw
Out of $nktr completely broken down with no buyers in sight. Big clear out with some other names too, kamikaze large levered $mrna short @ $196.5
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$ANNX The Q4 readout is a bit convoluted. The entire 659 patient trial is split into 2 (prespecified) independent statistical sub-studies. If Vonaprument hits the primary endpoint on all 3 studies for 15 mo, they will unmask, present the data and prepare for filing...I guess in Q4? Any communication about continuing to 24 mo alone means negative for 15 mo
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To expand more on this, the upcoming binary feels too risky to take a position. Open questions remain about the MoA...I don't see how inhibiting C1q affects foveal photoreceptors preferentially, but that wasn't the case with Syvofre or Izervay (C3/C5 inhibition). For their P3 ARCHER II study, it seems like they've tried to enrich for a patient population more likely to hit stat sig, but it's a balancing act between avoiding patients that are too far gone (BCVA <45 letters) and ones that are not impaired enough (unlikely to hit >15 BCVA letter loss in 15 mo). The value prop is certainly compelling if they hit, but you can always buy after the read-out even if you miss the original upside. $ANNX
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I recorded this before seeing the open market buys from Baker. I'm covering the leftover short equity I have but will revisit at launch.
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