Taking the bigger picture view across 372 elections in 32 countries left wing parties are overestimated by 1.4 percentage points, with polling errors of all sizes more likely to occur for left wing parties osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/mk…

Many thanks to @verasight_data for interviewing me about my recent research with @CBWlezien ! Had fun discussing how the public (mis)understands inflation information, and why it matters 👍 piped.video/KO4Ask_7vto?is=fTcQ…

Great article! "One professor at UC San Diego tells me that new course approvals went from a six-month process to a two-year backlog, largely because of expensive software that requires ongoing maintenance."

The proposal deadline for the SPSA 2027 is approaching soon! Proposals are due September 1, 2026. You can also now book your hotel room for SPSA 2027! Check your email or visit spsa.net/annual-meeting/2027… for more information about submitting to the conference and booking your room!

AI prose is distinguishable by word and punctuation choice as well as sentence and paragraph structure. But its hallmarks are not what you might expect. Read our full investigation economist.com/culture/2026/0…

Link: osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/mk… With Stuart Perrett, Will Jennings, Chris Prosser, Chris Wlezien and me

Fellow political scientists (who are still on here), if you wouldn't mind spreading the word, I'd really appreciate it--thank you!!! 🙏 @JohnHolbein1, @julie_wronski , @littleconnors, @RobertNLupton, @CBWlezien, @dhopkins1776, @YamilRVelez, @akoustov, @AdamBerinsky, @iganson

📈 How do people update their perceptions of the economy? ➡️ Derek A. Epp and @CBWlezien show that people interpret the same economic changes differently depending on their prior perceptions, suggesting that public opinion is shaped by benchmarking cambridge.org/core/journals/…

A new publication of possible interest with Stuart Soroka on the relationship between negativity bias in media coverage and misinformation: tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.…

Here's a little something that might interest a number of you, part of a forum in the Journal of Public Policy: cambridge.org/core/journals/…. Many thanks to editor Josh Ryan and the commentators Samuel Bagg, Tara Grillos, Agustin Markarian, and Mary Scudder!

🚨 Do you use @Stata? Want to learn some tricks for better graphs? If so, I'm hosting a seminar with Instats on June 8 and 9! Lots of tips, tricks & guidance for clearer, prettier, publication-quality data viz for descriptive & inferential analyses. Pls spread the word! 🙏

🎉🎉🎉NOW AVAILABLE for Pre-Order! 🥳 So much thought, time, energy and love went into writing this. For those kind enough to order it, I genuinely hope you enjoy and find value in it. I tried my best to write for those who want to learn how to do quant social science research.

Good post from Krugman on the economic vibes again, esp the last chart: paulkrugman.substack.com/p/b… In my piece last week I shared a new paper from Chris Wlezien and Derek Epp at UT Austin showing he's exactly right, that people respond to inflation worse during good times vs bad:

The declarations of independents: Open‐ended survey responses and the nature of non‐identification - Allamong - American Journal of Political Science - Wiley Online Library onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/…

Excited about a new paper with nitter.siddz.com/s_soroka in nitter.siddz.com/polcommjournal: "durable biases in information processing, by media organizations and humans more generally, can produce misinformation and misperceptions..." tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.…

Breaking News: The U.S. trade deficit rose sharply in November, as President Trump’s tariffs generated intense volatility. nyti.ms/4q5d2Ly

Fake news tend to be more negative. "variation in accuracy is associated with variation in the tendency to overweight negative information relative to positive information". researchgate.net/profile/Chr…

The US economy is in a hiring recession. Almost no jobs have been added since April. Wage gains are slowing. 710,000 more people are unemployed now versus November 2024. November +64,000 jobs October -105,000 (impacted by shutdown) September +108,000 August -26,000 July +72,000 June -13,000 May +19,000 I believe it's a combination of tariff impacts, AI, and cost cutting. Americans are feeling it. #jobs

The obsession with getting your kids into an Ivy+ college is overrated. The same kids who are able to get into an elite school will earn just as much money if they get into a good public school. The income gain is literally 0% Why are people obsessed with it then? Because those schools offer access to the *most prestigious* jobs, like elite law firms and grad schools. academic.oup.com/qje/advance…